Steve Loftus Profile picture
Jun 16, 2023 15 tweets 3 min read Read on X
🍃 The Offshore Wind Megathread 🍃

How many times have you seen on TV or read on Twitter that wind power is cheap and that's where the Government should focus its efforts?

Let's have a look at why that isn't remotely true.

#windenergy #greenenergy #renewables Image
@BrknMan @aDissentient @7Kiwi MW not GW, it's late.
@BrknMan @aDissentient @7Kiwi I will say its possible for outliers. HR3 is a shallow, near shore farm and it was built before turbine costs shot up.

That's not the trend were seeing in the UK.
@halhod Though not covered here there are many that dispute it's greener credentials also
There are 35 tweets in this thread. Buggy Twitter doesn't always show them all in line, sometimes I see to 27, sometimes 30. You have to click on the last you can see to get the rest.

I notice the view counts for the later ones are much lower.
@halhod Also capex is 60-70% of the levelised cost and anything built recently is going to be 38% more expensive than pre 2021 just due to increased turbine costs.
@paterson_vm @fergustp Safe
@aDissentient @peterbatt Also there's the inconvenient fact that the IPCC says they are getting more expensive and why.

The global drop from 15 to 20 is due to a raft of near shore, shallow Chinese projects. It's not a true global trend.
@aDissentient @peterbatt Here's the study.

Its up to 2019 I think and the costs fall within both Hughes and Montford own estimates.

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
@peterbatt @fergustp @aDissentient Hughes, Montford, the Science Direct study I sent you and the IPCC all agree offshore wind is increasing in price.

There is only one person with a case of denialism here Peter.
@peterbatt @fergustp @aDissentient Let's make this easy.

Show me anything that says the costs of offshore wind are falling that doesn't include CfD bid prices.
@peterbatt @MingleDandy @fergustp @aDissentient And would save everyone hundreds of pounds a month, at least £400, and thousands over the coming years.
@peterbatt @MingleDandy @fergustp @aDissentient You started off your responses by saying that we should ignore such people. So maybe you should?

And the article you said contains science? It's arguments in order are,

1. It's really more than 1% (you can say that about everyone, in which case it's still 1%).
@peterbatt @MingleDandy @fergustp @aDissentient 2. 1% is actually big (It's not)

3. History matters (not to future planning it doesn't)

4. We are influencial (we can be influencial without crippling ourselves).

5. China is actually great (lol)

Zero science.
If you enjoyed this and want to read something interesting about UK water in light of the Thames Water news then read my thread below.

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More from @LoftusSteve

Jun 18
💰The Cost of Renewables 2025 Megathread💰

The Government is pushing the narrative that renewables are cheap and gas is the problem. It's been 18 months since my last thread showed this to be a lie.

Have things changed? Or is Ed Miliband driving us towards ruin? 🧵Image
1️⃣ We are constantly being fed the same lies.

🔹Renewables are the cheapest
🔹Prices are high because gas sets the market
🔹Solar is the cheapest form of electricity
🔹Labour will drop bills £300

All of it is nonsense. I'll show you why.
2️⃣ There are three renewables subsidy schemes in operation.

Contracts for Difference (CfD) that came into effect in 2017 and Renewables Obligation (RO) which ran from 2002 until 2017. These cover all large projects.

FiT (Feed in Tariff) is for sub 5MW projects.
Read 31 tweets
Jun 17
1️⃣2️⃣ The Renewables Obligation scheme, closed to new entrants in 2017, continues to impact energy bills significantly. Costs are projected to peak around 2028, with the scheme's burden not clearing until 2037, adding substantial charges to consumers' electricity bills.
1️⃣3️⃣ Last, and most expensive, is the Feed-in Tariff (FiT). Running from 2009 to 2019 with 20 year contracts, although the first 2 years have 25 year contracts. FiT is for sub 5MW projects which by quantity is mostly rooftop solar PV. This generates 7% of all renewables. Image
1️⃣4️⃣ The Ofgem annual reports for FiT are less detailed, but we do know that it generated 8.3 TWh and paid £1.86bn for it. That's £224 per MWh.

However, we do know how much of each tech is in the scheme and can estimate the cost using capacity factors and median rates. Image
Read 5 tweets
May 21
The Great Carbon Rip-off

The UK's planned alignment with EU-ETS is a grave economic mistake that will hit every household and business. Higher carbon prices will drive up electricity costs, fuel inflation, and by 2027, increase heating and transport costs. 🧵Image
1⃣ The EU carbon market (EU-ETS) already commands prices of €80-90 per tonne of CO2 - significantly higher than the UK's current system (which was £31 in Jan). Alignment means adopting these higher carbon costs, immediately driving up electricity prices across Britain.
2⃣ Energy intensive industries will pass these costs to consumers. This isn't just about your electric bill - it's about EVERYTHING you buy. From food production to manufacturing, higher electricity costs cascade through the entire economy.
Read 13 tweets
Mar 30
Pensions - The solution

The current average pension liability for someone retiring today, adjusted for 3.2% triple lock increases over 20 years, is £315,500 per person.

We could make that roughly £9,500 per person if we change the end we pay to the start. 🧵
If for every child born today the Government paid £9,500 into the "Great Britain Pension Fund", a fully ring fenced and invested fund, this would cover the full pension liability for that child to retire at age 68.

That amount in 68 years would be £940k. Image
This is based on a 7% annual return on average. Which over a mixed portfolio I think is achievable. The US stock market on average has returned around 10% historically, the UK around 6%.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 27
We need to have an uncomfortable conversation about pensions.

It was introduced in 1909, but it wasn't until 1950 that the average life crossed the threshold.

Now we live nearly 20% of our lives above the state pension age, and growing. Image
Had we stayed in line with 1980, the state pension age should now be 73 years old.

The average person does not contribute anywhere near enough in tax to cover 20% of their life in retirement. So we are taxing it out of the young. Image
The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that state spending on pensioner benefits will increase from 6% to 10% of national income over the next 45 years—a surge equivalent to £100 billion annually in today's terms.
Read 13 tweets
Nov 6, 2024
The left are so pompously dislikeable.

Nobody on the right does this. When Labour won I didn't see any serious conservative voices writing long "woe is me" tweets about how the world was a darker place and doom and gloom was imminent.

They are all such self righteous pricks.
Read 10 tweets

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