Thread by @MassDara

I write often on Russian military personnel problems because I think it's a central issue. I will be the first to tell you that their military morale is poor in Ukraine. I still would not recommend any plan that rests on 'bad Russian morale will trigger a collapse in the front'/1

I hope that’s not a critical assumption at play. I don’t think it is, but, I’ve seen a few statements from some quarters that give me pause, like this one below. /2 meduza.io/en/news/2023/0…

In my view the Russian troops that are the most exhausted and maltreated are the ones in Luhansk and Donetsk, who fought a failed offensive since January, were subordinated (legally) to Luhansk/Donetsk proxies, or allegedly to mercenary groups, according to some families. /3

The VDV’s morale is stable. VDV took hard hits from the early part of the war, reducing their overall combat capabilities. They remain devoted to their commander, Col-General Teplinsky, who visits them and inspects positions. They also seem to understand their missions. /4

The units in the south (Kherson, Zaporizhzhia) are mixed. Some of these units took hits early on, but some of these units did not. While no units are healthy, I would say some of these are in ok shape. /5

https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1668999661137403911?s=20

I observe a focus in Russian units in the last week in the south, IVO Zaporizhzhia (at least on social media), that I have not seen in a while. Their positions are prepared. I see nerves, but not panic. Probably because the UAF have not closed on them so it may be temporary. /6

I’m not saying this is a reformed Russian army or a confident one; it’s not. But they are adapting. I’m also not saying that Russian morale won’t crack when tested in close quarters on the Zap front; it has cracked elsewhere after contact. /7 rusi.org/explore-our-re…

But as for now, as Russian forces try to target and slow UAF advances with mines and artillery, there is a sense of focus. Reassessment will be needed of course, when the main UAF effort collides with Russian positions /8

Ukrainian Armed Forces have not yet breached major Russian strongholds and defensive positions. Russian forces will rely on their prepared defenses, artillery, and airborne assets to try to fix them where they are, and prevent a breach./9

All this is to say, as someone who believes Russian morale is moderate at best, to outright bad as a direct result of the way their commanders have mistreated them, I would not recommend anyone bank on that as a critical planning factor /10

This counteroffensive's fighting is fierce and it will get harder as the UAF approaches the Russian lines. Once they do, the dynamics are unpredictable for both. /11

https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1657151190562381825?s=20

Better UAF tactics, better ISR, better local commanders will be to UAF's advantage when they close on Russian positions. Ukrainian commanders remain focused on their operational tasks and I haven't seen many making assumptions about Russian forces cracking on contact. /end