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Paul Maidowski Profile picture
@_ppmv
Jun 17, 2023 • 15 tweets • 11 min read • Read on X
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Fortunately I’m a rocket scientist, so here the public health decision every state worldwide now faces, broken down to its essence. Do you want to live with a SARS virus in your much shortened, disease-ridden lives or would you rather not?

That’s the only real question here. Image
2. Previous iterations of this deep insight. I’m not satisfied with “explode” here because while true on an intergenerational scale, explosive typically denotes a process faster than multiple years - as it will take - to most people. Should say “increase.”
3. You’d think whether we want to live with a SARS and smallpox-like virus (monkeypox ~ variola virus) is at the heart of the German national security policy debate #Sicherheitsstrategie? Cute.

In reality, as @RikeFranke argued, German millennials are incredibly bad at strategy.
@RikeFranke Dr. Franke assessment of the pandemic is wrong (sorry—I may have pointed it out previously; just need to add it if I share); otherwise a perceptive, timely 2021 essay. warontherocks.com/2021/05/a-mill… ImageImage
@RikeFranke 4. Crash course for political scientists unfamiliar with SARS/MERS-CoV/OPV/hMPXV pathogenesis. - Read for example China CDC's analysis of expected future genetic recombination in SARS-CoV-2 and I'd add, Mpox.


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5. Slightly sharper version of #2 above, explaining mechanisms (=relevant to scientists or all who want to understand why a pathogen behaves as it does).
6. Now is a good time to ruin a fun polemic tweet by overexplaining it. - No, we're here to learn and Germany offers splendid lessons on what NOT to do in a SARS pandemic. To start, to do any worse than Germany over the past 12 months is hard if one tried. Image
7. These are all countries available in the database. Many stopped reporting or are wildly unreliable; can't work with data we don't have. For example Russia must have done worse than Germany over the past 12 months but it's reporting is likely incomplete. Image
8. Please correct if wrong, but I read Germany had 96,077 excess deaths in 343 days = 280 excess deaths *per day* in the past 12 months (19 June 2022 to 28 May 2023). Imagine two Airbus A320s à 140 passengers crashing every day.

Zero journalists noticed. Wild. @berndulrich etc.? Image
I may be terribly mistaken, but so far I'd propose we have a problem here and I don't think it's my middle school math.
9. For another, better graphic, compare the change in excess mortality over the past 12 months (left) with the change between 5 Jan 2020 and 9 April 2023, just before @WHO was forced to end the COVID-19 PHEIC.

WILD. We truly stare into the abyss here and it's looking back at us. ImageImageImage
@WHO 10. Concise by @mayer_iras. I also think this is how too many think. All that has big guns, platforms, and budgets attached to it is serious, hard power. Ideally EM or kinetic. Climate/health stuff are annoying distraction from the job.

I caricature, but.
@WHO @mayer_iras 11. We had 8,096 SARS-CoV-1 infections. Survivors had epigenetic changes 20 years later. Billions of SARS-CoV-2 survivors face the same.

We cannot explain how states came to face disaster unprepared without the hubris of their staff and political leaders.
@WHO @mayer_iras 12. Many criticize WHO, I think as projection. As educational turn, ask your students to advise DG @DrTedros, skilled public health diplomat. What advice should he give G7 world leaders?

We face a dilemma that deserves sustained, global attention. thx all
13. Some elements of solutions we already described in detail (IHR 2005, climate, precautionary principle for both). Others are missing.

Language pros, among others we need a catchier name for the alternative to the PP 👇

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More from @_ppmv

Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 13
“Bamboo is our best chance to slow climate breakdown. It can replace drivers of GHG emissions and biodiversity loss (food, construction, concrete, plastic), build soil & allow regrowing rainforest." - Let's test it. Grow bamboo as blueprint for a future ecological civilization 🧵
Moso bamboo (phyllostachys edulis) seedling grown from seed with tap root
Moso bamboo forest in China, stock photo
2. Giant bamboo dwarfs trees. As grass, it grows 30 times (!) faster and can be harvested every year. Timber takes decades; too slow. Stunningly, no one in the west described the unique climate mitigation potential of bamboo yet. - Note the rhizome system:

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3. Climate relevant will be the use in millions of ha of plantations, just like other economically important crops. After two months on this, some significant progress: air pot kindly donated 1 m of their professional U system, so I can test it for bamboo.
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Read 39 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 4
SARS-CoV-2 reminder: The more immune compromised the population, the less symptoms, the ‘milder’ it appears, the more severe it really is (=Long Covid, long term damage). That’s what even most scientists seem not to get
Thanks for vivid discussion everyone. It really is a fundamentally important point. Since I deleted most references for lack of structure (and frankly, just being fed up repeating the same points for 3 to 4 years), I'll look for new references that must have been published by now
Background
Read 8 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
May 30
1. "Bamboo is our best chance to slow climate breakdown: it sustains societies, can protect soil and store carbon for 100 years in food, construction, bio-concrete and plastic." - Let’s test this. As our very German neighbors renew their English Gardens, we start growing bamboo👇

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2. Three months ago I started on bamboo: no one else in Europe seemed to have systematically analyzed or even considered its global climate mitigation potential when used as agricultural crop rather than natural forests, which do little climate mitigation.
3. A bamboo focus isn't for the coming years. We are at least a decade early. However, since getting started will take decades, now is a good time. In 10 years, atmospheric CO2 will exceed 450 ppm. That's enough to fundamentally transform the Earth system.
Read 6 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Apr 8
Hybrid immunity was invented in 2021 to sell the idea of SARS-CoV-2 infections as a good. There is no literature pre 2021. The idea to infect the global population with a SARS virus, including all 2 billion children aged 14 yo and younger, didn't exist. scholar.google.com/scholar?q=%22h…


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Arijit documented this too. If you read the papers, it's a false analogy and poor reasoning.
You can repeat the same with "immune debt" or "immunity debt", the original flawed idea invented by French pediatrician Cohen in 2021, setting off the whole strain of argument. An incredibly effective PR campaign, less good science.
scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&…


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Read 6 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Mar 11
1. Europe imports all its bamboo. Plantations on fallow land are one good option to slow climate breakdown and create sustainable jobs. Bamboo is incredibly fast and, unlike timber, active management improves climate and ecological outcomes. Merits focus, baustoff-partner.de/d/moso-reiche-…

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SARS-CoV-2 wasn't the last disruption to import based businesses. Our basic climate policy warning for seven years now. One of the reasons I'd encourage everyone to look into starting to grow Moso bamboo (phyllostachys edulis) or other suitable species in Southern Europe as well. Image
3. Terrestrial mammals and C4 grasses evolved and adapted below a threshold of 550 ppm. Earth will cross it within the lifetime of kids born today. - Bamboo is our most efficient C3 plant. Cenozoic CO2 proxy (CENCO2PIP) Consortium☝️ science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…



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Read 24 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Feb 26
You need a scale for the collapse of 'doomsday' glacier Thwaites. Compare the past two years: iceberg B22a broke off the glacier in 2002 and gained legs in 2023, freeing Thwaites to flow into the sea over the coming years: here it is today—that's 3,000 km2 worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-2442135.48…


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3600 square kilometers, for the mathematicians here Image
What Bob says
Read 9 tweets

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