Armchair Warlord Profile picture
Jun 17 β€’ 12 tweets β€’ 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Putin HATES it!

How NATO tried to use ONE WEIRD TRICK to destroy the Russian Army!

Thread πŸ‘‡ Image
This is very apropos today because Putin revealed details of the April 2022 Russo-Ukrainian peace treaty to the African peace delegation today.

NATO seems to have promised Zelensky not just unlimited support but a war-winning superweapon to get him to denounce the agreement. ImageImage
This led directly to the provision, starting in late April 2022, of vast quantities of Western precision weapons linked to the full glare of NATO's intelligence and surveillance apparatus.

No other escalation in Western support has remotely approached this one in significance. ImageImage
This explains why HIMARS - America's most dangerous surface-fired weapon and an enormous leap up the escalation ladder from the previous shoulder-fired missiles - arrived in Ukraine so early and when the AFU still had substantial rocket and missile forces remaining. ImageImage
This also explains why NATO (read: the US) has been willing to expend so much of its stock of precision-guided MLRS munitions in Ukraine.

This war was to have been the first test of Western next-generation battle doctrine, focused on persistent surveillance and precision strike. Image
This is a concept that has been mooted for decades now, going back to the original Future Combat Systems concepts of the late 1990s.

The idea is that light Western forces will be able to use "information dominance" and precise long-range fires to win with minimal losses. Image
Col. Douglas Macgregor (a far higher profile military commentator than myself) has presented precisely such a concept as the "Light Reconnaissance Strike Group," essentially an off-the-shelf FCS Brigade.

You can read the whole presentation at:… Image
This thinking was also influential in designing the United Kingdom's new Strike Brigade concept, mounted in wheeled APCs but intended to square off with Russian armored formations by using standoff fires and precision missiles.

The provision of exactly these capabilities to Ukraine was intended to enable them to target and destroy Russian forces at an absolutely industrial scale, day after day after day, leading to their military collapse and defeat. A "strategy of corrosion" if you will. Image
The war planners at NATO thought this would work because, as explained above, this was exactly how they themselves intended to fight in the future - stiff-arming heavier enemies with precise fires from standoff distances.

Unfortunately for them, there are no shortcuts in war. Image
The Russians quickly adapted to the new threat by dispersing, hiding and digging-in their forces, interdicting launchers and missiles, deploying effective GPS jammers, and revealing that their air defenses can do missile defense.

Video: Pantsir shooting down 12 GMLRS missiles.
The end result of this has been much like the end-result of most life hacks - wasted time, effort and money, with the problem remaining very much unsolved.

NATO is running out of precision weapons and the Russian position in Ukraine is probably better now than it has ever been. Image

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More from @ArmchairW

Jun 16
This article needs a debunk.

First of all, Politico misunderstands why a lot of foreign students attend US military courses. Many are not there to actually learn anything but rather to make connections with the US military.…
It's completely routine for foreign students to arrive at an American military school having already done whatever it is that school prepares you for.

In my Career Course class we had a foreign officer who (as a 1LT!) had already seen combat as a cannon battery commander. Image
Despite coming from a very humble and not particularly well-regarded military, by the way, I would have taken this guy to war in a heartbeat.

Anyone telling you the West has some kind of inherent qualitative advantage in the caliber and competence of its personnel is lying. Image
Read 9 tweets
Jun 14
D+10 update for the Ukrainian Zaporozhe Offensive.

Big takeaway today - despite shifting the main effort from Orekhovo to the more vulnerable Vremievsky Ledge, the offensive is culminating. Most of the current drama is the back-and-forth battles over the village of Makarovka. ImageImage
This despite the commitment by Ukraine of a corps-sized formation to reduce the Ledge.

Russian troops in the area have lost a handful of villages but are firmly entrenched on nearby high ground and have been repelling large Ukrainian attacks for days now. Image
In the context of the broader theater this is trivial. The Ukrainians have failed to take significant terrain anywhere and have not even come close to the "first" Russian defensive line.

General area of the battlfield maps above highlighted in context of the Russian defenses: ImageImageImage
Read 12 tweets
Jun 12
Under the weather today so a short update for D+8 of the Ukrainian Zaporozhe Offensive - modest gains near the river in the Vremievsky Ledge region for Ukraine, the Russians seem to have fallen back to the "first intervisibility line" on the nearby high ground to defend.
Bluntly, this looks to me like the Ukrainians have advanced into a planned kill zone, probably the first of many on the long road south.

Given the (unconfirmed) news in the QT above the Russians have retaken a couple of the contested villages, they seem to be counterattacking. ImageImageImage
It should be noted this is still on the "guard line" at the front, and the first proper obstacle belt (of something like five, depending on how you count) is still well south of the area.

Picture 2 showing the field of view of Picture 1. ImageImage
Read 9 tweets
Jun 10
Photo of the Day: "73 Easting in Reverse"

Short update for Day 6 of the Ukrainian Zaporozhe Offensive. Image
I get a kick out of how the talking points match.

1991: "The Coalition has yet to face the elite Republican Guard!"
2023: "The Russians have yet to face the elite Western-armed corps!"

Turns out they're nothing special, and their fancy tanks burn just the same. Image
To give you a sense of how the Ukrainian offensive has been going, this is a Russian soldier standing in front of a column of knocked-out Bradleys at the front.

Expect one of these to show up in front of the US Embassy in Moscow in the near future. Image
Read 8 tweets
Jun 9
The United States military has a long track record of figuring out exactly what it needs for the war of the future, developing appropriate weapons, and then discarding them and being caught with its pants down when its enemies develop equivalents decades later.

A thread: Image
Exhibit A: The AIM-54 Phoenix missile.

But AW, you say - this was widely deployed!

Well, no - it wasn't. This long-range, active-radar homing missile, developed in the early 1960s, was deployed on only one platform: the US Navy's F-14 fleet defense fighter. Image
The Air Force was supremely uninterested in the weapon, and as late as the 1991 Persian Gulf War the USAF's cutting-edge F-15s went into combat carrying semi-active, short-range Sparrows. The USAF wouldn't have a "Fox Three" missile until AMRAAM came online in the later 1990s. Image
Read 23 tweets
Jun 8
Photos have just emerged of a column of Ukrainian Leopard 2A4s and M113s under Russian fire, allegedly near Orekhovo. There may be a Leopard 1 in the group as well.

Pictures of the engagement downthread: ImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets

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