A quick thread on Blinken's visit to China -- Day 1: The readouts by both sides are fairly positive --more positive than I expected. The PRC readout says "China is committed to building a stable, predictable, and constructive China-U.S. relationship." That's important. 1/n
The US readout says "Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken held candid, substantive, and constructive talks today with People’s Republic of China (PRC) State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang in Beijing." No mention of "cooperative," but still positive. 2/n
The PRC notes 5 things that both sides agreed to. These are not deliverables, but they are important. 1) jointly implement the impt consensus reached at the summit btw the heads of state in Bali, effectively manage differences, promote dialogue, communication, and cooperation.
2) maintain high-level exchanges. Secretary Blinken invited State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang to visit the United States, and Qin Gang expressed willingness to visit the United States at a mutually convenient time. 4/n
3) Both sides agreed to continue the consultations on the principles guiding China-U.S. relations. 4) Both sides agreed to continue the consultations of the China-U.S. Joint Working Group to address specific issues in the bilateral relationship. 5/n
5) Both sides agreed to encourage the expansion of cultural & educational exchanges, actively explore increasing passenger flights..,welcome more students, scholars, & business people to visit each other's countries, & provide support & convenience for such visits. 6/n
It appears there was a full airing of concerns on both sides. The PRC readout unsurprising emphasizes Taiwan. The US readout notes standing up for the interests of values of the American people and advancing a world that is free, open based on a rules-based order. 7/n
Blinken raised "opportunities to explore cooperation on shared transnational issues with the PRC where our interests align." There is no mention of cooperation in the PRC readout. 8/n
Expectations were low for this visit. So far it appears to have gone fairly well. Both sides seek to stabilize bilateral ties. Blinken will meet with Wang Yi on Monday, and probably with Xi Jinping as well. That will be the most important meeting, if it occurs. 9/9 END

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More from @BonnieGlaser

Oct 16, 2022
My analysis of the Taiwan sections of Xi Jinping's political report to the 20th Party Congress. A 🧵
As most of you probably know by now, the official report is longer than the version that Xi Jinping delivered. He left out some key things on Taiwan in his oral summary. 1/n
In the section on achievement in past 5 years, Xi said “We have resolutely opposed separatist activities aimed at “Taiwan independence” and foreign interference. We have thus maintained the initiative and the ability to steer in cross-Strait relations.” 2/n
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Aug 6, 2022
It's understandable that Europe's top concern about Taiwan Strait tensions is the potential diversion of US attention away from Ukraine, as a senior EU official says in this article. But Europe has many other interests at stake as well. 1/2 politico.eu/article/eu-bra…
At the ARF, Josep Borrell, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said that "nobody should unilaterally change the status quo by force". This is a welcome statement. news.yahoo.com/eu-foreign-pol…
Borrell called on "all parties to remain calm, to exercise restraint, to act with transparency and to maintain open lines of communication to prevent any miscalculations that could lead to tragic consequences", reflecting concerns in Europe that the situation could spiral further
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Mar 26, 2021
Xi Jinping in Fujian today: "“We should focus on promoting integration by means of communication, benefit, and emotions, and have the courage to explore new ways of X-strait integration and development.”
For those who say China has given up on and abandoned its policy of "peaceful development across the Taiwan Strait," please read the 14th Five Year plan, which reiterates this policy.
China is using grey-zone tactics, including military, economic, and diplomatic tactics, to impose psychological pressure on the people of Taiwan. It is also preparing for the possibility of using force as a last resort.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 11, 2020
Thread on President Tsai ing-wen's re-election today: 1) Voter turnout was around 74%. Voters in Taiwan still have faith in democracy. 8.1 million voters--a record high--voted to re-elect Tsai for a second term. An impressive comeback after her low support in polls last year.
2) Voters were not enthusiastic about KMT candidate Han Kuo-yu, so this was as much a Han loss as a Tsai win. In the party-list LY vote, support for DPP and KMT was almost identical--suggests not everyone who voted 4 Tsai supports the DPP, & the KMT still has significant backing
3) Taipei Mayor Ko's Taiwan's People's Party did well in the party-list LY vote too, with 11.2%. So BJ probably won't conclude that it has no options other than to use force. I predict China will decide to wait out the next 4 years, while ratcheting up ec, pol, mil pressure.
Read 5 tweets

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