It is regretful that the views expressed by me and my co-authors in Foreign Affairs are being taken out of context by some people in Taiwan. The main point of the article is that effective deterrence requires both credible threats and assurances. 1/x foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/taiwan-… We advocate potential measures that Beijing, the US, and Taiwan could take to bolster assurances. Taiwan must credibly signal that it has the resolve and capability to defend itself as well as assure that it will not seek formal independence. 2/x

A quick thread on Blinken's visit to China -- Day 1: The readouts by both sides are fairly positive --more positive than I expected. The PRC readout says "China is committed to building a stable, predictable, and constructive China-U.S. relationship." That's important. 1/n The US readout says "Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken held candid, substantive, and constructive talks today with People’s Republic of China (PRC) State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang in Beijing." No mention of "cooperative," but still positive. 2/n

My analysis of the Taiwan sections of Xi Jinping's political report to the 20th Party Congress. A 🧵 As most of you probably know by now, the official report is longer than the version that Xi Jinping delivered. He left out some key things on Taiwan in his oral summary. 1/n

It's understandable that Europe's top concern about Taiwan Strait tensions is the potential diversion of US attention away from Ukraine, as a senior EU official says in this article. But Europe has many other interests at stake as well. 1/2 politico.eu/article/eu-bra… At the ARF, Josep Borrell, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said that "nobody should unilaterally change the status quo by force". This is a welcome statement. news.yahoo.com/eu-foreign-pol…

Xi Jinping in Fujian today: "“We should focus on promoting integration by means of communication, benefit, and emotions, and have the courage to explore new ways of X-strait integration and development.” For those who say China has given up on and abandoned its policy of "peaceful development across the Taiwan Strait," please read the 14th Five Year plan, which reiterates this policy.

Thread on President Tsai ing-wen's re-election today: 1) Voter turnout was around 74%. Voters in Taiwan still have faith in democracy. 8.1 million voters--a record high--voted to re-elect Tsai for a second term. An impressive comeback after her low support in polls last year. 2) Voters were not enthusiastic about KMT candidate Han Kuo-yu, so this was as much a Han loss as a Tsai win. In the party-list LY vote, support for DPP and KMT was almost identical--suggests not everyone who voted 4 Tsai supports the DPP, & the KMT still has significant backing