Thread by @TrentTelenko

The downstream effects of Russia blowing the Kakhovka dam are now starting to eat into the Russian manpower making the Putin Régime's Courland Pocket defense of southern Ukraine.

Waterborne disease has been washed into the mobiks.

Casualty&Delusion🧵
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english.nv.ua/nation/russian…

Every disease associated with bad water is now stalking the Russian Army in Kherson & Crimea.

Cholera, Escherichia coli (E-coli), dysentery, viral hepatitis, and botulism are all stalking the Russian mobik 'meat' whose sanitation standards are as
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english.nv.ua/nation/cholera…

...non-existent as Russian Army logistics.

Disease is implacable, and you cannot cheat it. You can only stop it with sustained sanitation and medical work the RuAF is incapable of doing.

The Putin Regime is now facing the unintended consequences of blowing Kakhovka dam.

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History has not been kind to Army's in Crimea who can't obtain clean water.

The British 'Army of the East' lost 16,297 of its 20,813 military deaths in the 1854-1856 Crimean War to water borne diseases.

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jstor.org/stable/44227359

Societal breakdowns follow repeat patterns and Russia drove itself into one in 1999 when they bought into Putinist "Russian Exceptionalism" fantasies and decided that pragmatic realities do not apply to them.

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Russian exceptionalism in this case being pretending that a lengthy history of flood induced epidemics does not apply to Russians as they are Ubermenschen.

Everything else is just a chain of consequential actions - Russia had many off ramps along the way but every time
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...decided not to take them. And so it has also been with this conflict.

That's delusional, but isn't the only or the most important delusions involved here.

The only reason the Putin regime remains in Ukraine is because its leadership is convinced that if they drag it out
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...long enough, that the West with cut and run.

If the Putin regime thought it could maximize its survival odds by bugging out of Ukraine early, it would.

This bit of utter delusion is a Putin Regime faction building an 'off ramp' just in case:
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pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/…

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But Putin and his closest Russian oligarch toadies group-think that they will win by staying, so they persist.

There is no independent civic society in Russia.

There will be no Russian public uprising against the war in Ukraine.

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Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is right in saying that the Putin regime can lie any which way it wants and the zombified by 20 years of "Russian Exceptionalism" propaganda Russian public will nod and agree.

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pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/…

There are no "Good Russians" or "Popular Russian Opposition," or "an Oligarch faction we can do a deal with." There never will be.

Whoever replaces Putin will be worse than Putin.

Yet there is this delusion in DC circles that they can save Russia from itself. 😱🤯

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Which is about as bad a case of delusional hubris that anybody can suffer.

The Biden Administration De-Escalation Faction's aim is to turn the Russo-Ukrainian War into a "forever war" that helps the Russians.

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nytimes.com/2023/06/17/wor…

The Putin Regime is keenly aware of the delusions of Biden Administration National Security Advisor Sullivan and his Obama era predecessor Susan Rice.

These were the people Russia's "Reflexive Control" information warfare doctrine was created 25 odd years ago to map,
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...capture the information channels too and fill with Russian delusion.

Nor are they the only ones targeted.

You see these sorts of Russian infowar efforts all the time in the various Twitter spaces reporting on the Russo-Ukrainian War aimed at both the USA's Left & Right.

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The problem for the American people is that the delusions of some in DC elites cannot change the realities of Russia's ongoing internal meltdown.

Russia will never be a useful ally for the great game with China.

At best it will be a big DPRK, at worse a large ex-Yugoslavia.
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All the De-Escalation factions' de facto embargo on long range strike capabilities like ATACMS & Western 4th Generation jets "for the sake of their great game goals" did was increase AFU casualties, world wide food supply chain & energy supply related economic disruptions.

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But partisan group-think means people like Sullivan and Rice are fireproof.

They could start a nuclear war and be forgiven since they are ideologically aligned with their partisan group-thinking 'powers that be.'

All of their follies are forgivable as they are in the

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...party group thinking in-group.

So that the media and partisan camp followers will forgive all such sins.

Even if they act against their party interest and the national interest.

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That is the nature of partisan groupthink...

Folly, malice and self interest driven behaviours are all forgiven.

It is that sort of US tribal-based partisan group-think delusions that are the most dangerous delusions in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

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Nothing good will come of it, in either party, & both US major parties have group-think delusions on Russia.

One wants Russia as an ally for the 'great game' with China.🙄

One sees Putin as a strong ally of Christianity against the 'G-dless International Left.'🤯

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And in the meantime, we get to see parades of Russian atrocities that turn the Russo-Ukrainian War into a grim US Marines versus Imperial Japanese at Okinawa slugfest, with no quarter asked or taken.

There will be no negotiated peace treaty.
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thetimes.co.uk/article/4561e1…

There will be a Korean War style armistice, at best.

And you will know who is captured by Russian Reflexive Control infowar efforts going forward when they talk publicly about pressuring Ukraine for a "negotiated peace settlement" of the Russo-Ukrainian War.🙄

22/22 End