Thread by @TracyBethHoeg

In this 🧵 I look at the evidence behind many of the statements @RobertKennedyJr made on @joerogan re vaccine safety in the first 60 minutes of the show.

Both "sides" may be surprised by my conclusions

Though we sometimes disagree, I like RFK, Jr

Let me know what I got wrong

✅The Danish study mentioned by @RobertKennedyJr of the DPT vax & infant mortality (note my friend, @StabellBenn an author) was IMO a very convincing natural experiment.
DTP vax WAS associated with 5x higher mortality in infants; 10x higher in girls. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

This is not the same as the TDAP currently given in the US but is still apparently given in Africa & Southeast Asia (@RobertKennedyJr says by Bill Gates)
Can anyone verify this?
✅From what I can find on the Gates Foundation website this may still be true gatesfoundation.org/ideas/media-ce…

Does the Guyer study in Pediatrics say <1% of the decline in pediatric infectious mortality is due to vaccines?
❌? Perhaps he meant <10%?
See below; I'm just not finding anything about <1% of the decline being due to vaccines.
publications.aap.org/pediatrics/art…

Then @RobertKennedyJr says there have been no placebo controlled trials for childhood vaccine safety.

❌What does he mean? Just one example is for the rotavirus vaccine Rotateq. It's a placebo controlled efficacy & safety trial of 70,000 infants
nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NE…

I disagree w/@RobertKennedyJr 's stance on timing of heb B vax that we shouldn't give it to babies bc they're not at risk at that point (unless mom has it); he even goes on to explain how high risk people "don't want to get it" but isn't that a major reason it's given in infancy?

Re hep B vaccine and risk of autism:
@RobertKennedyJr says "a relative risk of 2 is considered proof of causation as long as there is biological plausibility"
❌ No. Absolutely not true. Of course there can be confounders that cause of RR of 2! What is he saying here?

❌ @RobertKennedyJr discusses autism rates exploding in the 80s & mentions a study from UC Davis finding a tripling that they couldn't explain by diagnostic criteria changes but the lead author said the study found no evidence vaccines were the cuprit.
nytimes.com/2002/10/18/us/…

I could only find the NYT article; was the above study published?
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence but what's more important here is correlation≠ causation & @RobertKennedyJr seems to suggest the rise in austism is due to vaccines but this hasn't been substantiated

Though RCTs are better, this Danish obs study of >600,000 children born over 11 years in a very homgeneous population found "comparing MMR-vaccinated w/MMR-unvaccinated kids yielded [an] adjusted..hazard ratio of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.85-1.02)"
cc @anders_hviid
acpjournals.org/doi/full/10.73…

I think that was it for the first 60 minutes. Obviously anyone willing to fact check this show is risking their reputation if they get things wrong but I did it out of my own curiousity so thought I would share what I found. Curious to get feedback.

If @joerogan is still looking for someone to debate @RobertKennedyJr I am biased but I think it should be a woman & one who realy knows the data so I nominate @StabellBenn
Danes have a debate culture in science that is disappearing in here the US, where beliefs often trump data

Since it's Father's Day, here's my dad, Don, a gradually retiring medical malpractice & personal injury lawyer & wonderful person who taught me to read when in doubt, be able to defend what I say & respect everyone. He just told me he loves waking up & reading @Sensible__Med. Ha.