I have thoughts about scientists ‘debating’ contrarians, conspiracists and assorted bad faith actors (or authors).
For reference, I speak w/25 years experience of being a ‘public’ climate scientist…
Over that time I’ve appeared on multiple platforms (TV in studio/remote, radio, stage, panels, etc), with almost every high profile sceptic or do-nothing-er you can name.
These interactions have ranged from the incomprehensible (literally ppl talking over you the whole time)…
…to the pointless, & from the net negative to the moderately successful.
I’ve done formal debates and informal debates. I’ve. been sandbagged by unethical hosts who lied about other guests or formats, & walked into events that were stacked against the science from the get-go.
However well it went, there was never any let up or shift in the opponents tactics or messages. And if it didn’t go well… the worst clips would be pushed out and become part of the litany of contrarianism. Mostly none of these events moved the needle at all.
Far more successful is tackling the arguments being used, outside of any particular one-on-one confrontation and then being a source for others who are happier to do battle.
Worth mentioning some highlights/lowlights of these efforts:
Most pointless: being shouted over by Chris Horner while discussing the IPCC report.😬
Happiest: walking off the set at FBN having said what I wanted. 😉
Most outclassed: failing to be competitive w/Michael Crichton in constructing attractive narratives. 😳
Most useful: watching Jeff Sachs extract information about Pat Michaels’ fossil fuel funding on live TV. 🤣
Weirdest: an evening w/Lou Dobbs. 🧐
Events with other scientists (Christy, Curry, Lindzen etc) are generally fine and potentially useful (especially on a panel). Events with grifters (Morano, Ebell, Lomborg, Horner, Koonin etc) are best left to folks who understand the grift and can focus on that.
I still get asked a lot to do ‘debate’-like events, and I now generally refuse - though I do enjoy the ego stroking the organizers employ to try and get me to agree. I mean, who doesn’t like being told how great you’d be? 🙄
Most requests for this kind of thing come from venues/groups that are predisposed to be hostile. However, I’m fine talking to such groups and I’m happy to take anything they can (metaphorically) throw at me, but mostly when I suggest such an event, they are uninterested. 🤷
In particular, I don’t think we should shy away from in studio/in person interviews with even overtly hostile hosts. These formats give a lot of leeway for explaining yourself and the science, and you can’t be cut off. 😉
So @joerogan, @lexfridman, @KonstantinKisin etc - do the world and yourselves a favor and have a real climate scientist on! For interest though, not spectacle. 🤔
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Also new from @NASAGoddard SVS, a rather disorientating video exploring different map projections of the globe:
Disappointed that they don't have my go-to projection for global maps, the Equal Earth projection (similar to Robinson, but equal area):
Or possibly the weirdest projection that has ever been used on a postage stamp, the van der Grinten projection, used on the Byrd Antarctic Expedition USPS stamp in 1933:
#Elniño is trending for obvious reasons, but let me inject a note of caution...
The conventional wisdom pays attention to the ENSO forecasts collated at IRI, which come in two flavors, dynamical and statistical. iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/…
The initialized dynamical forecasts project a very strong El Niño in the fall/winter this year (Nino3.4 > 1.5). However, the statistical models are far less bullish (predicting Nino3.4 < 0.5). The consensus forecast splits the difference more or less. But that's a big spread!
I was once asked by someone prominent in the tech/internet area whether there was anything to the his critiques of climate change mitigation. I said no, but I could tell he really wanted me to say yes. Lomborg's shtick is definitely appealing. But why?
The release of Lomborg's 'new' book (which appears to be the same as all his previous books) is a reasonable point to dive in:
The overall thesis is that [if we only had limited resources and a short time frame] we should focus all our efforts tackling acute crises in developing countries.
Now, the implicit part of the argument in [...] is rarely stated and not actually true. So that's an issue!
One of the most-read posts at @RealClimate is a description of the CO2 problem in six easy steps from 2007. In the subsequent fifteen years, there's more data, evolution of some details and concepts and better graphics. So time for an update! realclimate.org/index.php/arch…
Step 1: There is a natural greenhouse effect.
Roughly 158 W/m2 of longwave energy emitted from the surface of the Earth is absorbed in the atmosphere.
Step 2: Trace gases contribute to the natural greenhouse effect
Direct observations from space show clearly the impacts of CO2, O3 and water vapour in the emitted longwave radiation.
This claim that ‘IPCC needs 30 yrs to detect changes’ is nonsense. Conceivably someone said it(?) but basically all detection work relies on single to noise ratios which, depending on the variable & size of the signal,can lead to detection over much shorter or much longer periods
For instance, we can statistically detect the impact of a big volcanic eruption in stratospheric temperatures in months! But we can only detect the influence of orbital forcing over millennia.
The ‘30 year’ period is related to the concept of climate normals - basically how much weather should you integrate over to define the climatology, and is a reasonable estimate for mid-latitude surface weather, say. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatolo…