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Jeff Berardelli

@WeatherProf

Oct 30

2X increase in the most extreme hurrucanes!
Yesterday’s post connecting Melissa’s extra intensity to warmer ocean temperatures ruffled some feathers. Some complained that “one storm” doesn’t prove climate change.
That’s true.
So I dug deeper.
Looking at every Cat 4 & 5 in the Atlantic since 1980 (reliable records/ good data gathering) I broke the record into 2 equal parts.
1980-2002 and 2003-2025
What I found surprised even me. The most recent period has more than double the number of most intense hurricanes in the Atlantic!!
That’s not coincidence. Humans have become a force of nature. Through greenhouse warming and changes in aerosols (pollution) the oceans have warmed dramatically.
For instance, the water under #Melissa was about 4 degrees F hotter than it would have been ~100 years ago.
That’s huge! That extra heat powers a higher horse power engine with heavier wind & rain.
Is there a natural oscillation (AMO)component too? Perhaps, but IMO it’s tenuous.
In post analysis it’s very possible Melissa will be upgraded to the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever given lots of unprecedented data collected just before landfall.
With that said, personally I post this info simply because I find it interesting the degree to which we have changed the trajectory of our climate.
But - to be clear - I don’t ask that you do anything about it. The way you use this info and take action - or not take action - is not my business. To each his/ her own.
Personally I want to be sure I’m not denying reality by ignoring the symptoms. And I want to be sure I’m communicating the science to the public, as my position requires.
What you do with the info is your business.

H/T to @BhatiaKieran his post yesterday on Rapid Intensification

@HurricaneManWx just alerted me that Andrew is missing from 1992. Not sure how! I’ll need to fix that later today and make sure there are no other errors!

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Jeff Berardelli

@WeatherProf

Oct 5

The North Pacific heatwave these past few months has been astonishing. Take a look at the bottom of this image. It’s “accumulated heat stress” from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch program. Basically the whole north basin registers Alert Level 5, dark purple. The dark purple also happens to correspond with areas that have been 5-8C (9 to 14 F) above normal at some point in the past few months.
(Luckily there is little coral impacted as this alert level
5 is for surface water north of the coral zone. I’m no biologist but I imagine it has a big impact on ocean life)
Now - I hope you are sitting - because take a look at this next graphic for September from @ZLabe 🧵 1/

Top right is how far “off the charts” September 2025 sea surface temps are in this area of the North Pacific. >1.6C or ~3F above normal on average over this huge area.
I’d say even more alarming than the actual anomaly is the trend since 2010. In 15 years the anomaly jumped more than 2F!
Much of this is likely due to the unmasking of global warming from the decrease in aerosol pollution. This allows for more ocean heating from more direct sun getting through and reduction in clouds due to feedbacks. 2/

These two graphics show the max 2025 anomaly (left) and max alert level (right) 3/

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Jeff Berardelli

@WeatherProf

Jul 29

I don't think you can understate just how impressive this heat dome is. It covers 2/3 of the nation in which 80% of the country's population over the 7 day heatwave period will hit 90+ for a high temperature (~260 million people)
The peak intensity of the heat dome was record breaking for the SE US in late July. It peaked at 3.7 standard deviations, based on statistics from the past climate records we have, which means this heat dome is rare, if not virtually impossible, in our former climate of the 1900s. But human-caused climate change now makes these extreme heat domes much more likely.
From the climate scientists at World Weather Attribution:
“Every heatwave in the world is now made stronger and more likely to happen because of human-caused climate change.”
A note: Its not the strongest heat dome I’ve seen and ground temperatures, although very hot, are not breaking many all-time records. The surface temps are not quite commensurate with the power of the heat dome aloft mainly due to the elevated low-level moisture from the Gulf.
Yes, as a climate specialist, I am very aware that climate change is not the only factor as to why it’s hot. I’m aware there is alot of asphalt making it hotter in cities. I’m aware it was record hot in the 1930s. I know the climate has always changed and the Earth goes through hot/ cold cycles. I know we are near sun spot maximum. I know all this, and more, because I have a Master’s degree in climate and I study this Every day. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.
A few sources for this post are in the thread below… #heatwave #heatdome @WFLA

Here’s the map showing that 280 million are impacted by 90 degrees plus.

And here’s what we can confidently say about the connection between climate and extreme weather from @WWAttribution

nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%…

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Jeff Berardelli

@WeatherProf

Jul 9

What are the odds this July’s Mediterranean heat is natural?
About 1 in a billion!
It's the most extreme Mediterannean heatwave on record. Peak anomalies +8C (+14F) now off France/ Italy with absolute peak temps near 31C/88F.
Those are isolated, but how deviant are the overall Med SST's from the norm? Around 6 deviations (sigma) or a roughly a 1-in-a-billion chance. So, basically, it's NOT possible in a natural climate.
BUT heat waves like this are not caused solely by climate change. So let's dig deeper with a thread... 1/

First, let's establish the sigma. In June the standard deviation from the 20th century mean was about 5-6 in the Western Med and not quite as deviant in the eastern Med. This deviation built larger as the month unfolded and is peaking for now. 2/

The pink line represents 2025. SST's are now "in their own league", already way above normal for the late summer peak. Heatewaves have increased by 3X since the 1980s, due to the increasing baseline from human-caused climate change. 3/

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Jeff Berardelli

@WeatherProf

Oct 5, 2024

Alert: #Milton may threaten #TampaBay midweek.
I’m not an alarmist, it takes a lot to get my attention. This has it. If Milton landfalls at or just north of Tampa Bay as a cat 2-3 hurricane, it means up to double #Helene storm surge. And extensive, long term power outages 1/

While the exact track/ intensity is to early to know, a hurricane traveling across the Gulf from the west/ WSW is a worst case scenario for, if it hits at or north of the mouth of Tampa Bay. The 1921 borderline Category 3 which hit Tarpon Springs pushed 10-12 ft of surge in 2/

If this still looks like a threat tomorrow, to whomever it still threatens, start taking actions. Top off hurricane supplies. Make/ discuss your family plans. Elevate your valuables if you are near the water. Prepare to evacuate if you are in an evacuation zone on Monday. 3/

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Jeff Berardelli

@WeatherProf

Sep 30, 2024

New: 2 rapid attribution studies on the impact of climate change on Hurricane #Helene have just been released. The results are very significant, yet unsurprising.
Warmer air, warmer water = much heavier rainfall rates. First study: ~50% increase in rain in parts of NC/ GA!! 🧵

First from @MichaelFWehner, who is one of the World’s experts on the connection between climate warming and Tropical cyclones.
“…our best
estimate is that climate change caused over 50% more rainfall during Hurricane Helene in some
parts of Georgia and the Carolinas.” 2/

@MichaelFWehner “Furthermore, we estimate that the observed rainfall was
made up to 20 times more likely in these areas because of global warming.”
That’s study number 1. Now let’s discuss study number two…
3/

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