In 2018 #ShowYourStripes began as 100s of meteorologists around the globe like @BernWoodsPlacky sported @ed_hawkins genius Warming Stripes visual to promote climate change awareness. This Wednesday June 21st is the 5th year!! Please join us by downloading your stripes 1/
) I posted about how unusual the jet stream is for this time of year. Below you can see in red that much of the Texas & Canada Ridges rank in the 99.5 percentile and small portions of each in record max territory. So 1/
So... while each mid-level heat dome is extremely unusual, neither is impossible. I'd argue however to have two adjacent heat domes simultaneous carving out a jet amplified to the degree it is right now in June is the remarkable part of this. 2/
The troughs are also impressive BUT neither the one over CA or FL is unusual in it's intensity. So although the cool pools aloft associated with those dips don't happen often they are not nearly as anomalous as the intensity of the ridges. 3/
When I look at this jet stream the word insane comes to mind. It's even more astonishing when you consider it's mid June! This configuration, likely enhanced by climate heating, is fueling a record heat dome so extreme that even experts are astonished!
@extremetemps says: “Heat wave "Taco" in Mexico is beyond your cat 5, it's cat 7 …it's simply something in its own league, nothing like this even can attempt to compare. Records obliterated all over with insane margins and beaten as many as 7 days in a row”
Higgs 110+ from Mexico to Texas. Heat Index numbers 120+… and the heat wave has been incredibly resilient, parked over Mexico for a week!! And the dome shows no signs of relenting, the core edging north into Texas this weekend-next week!
Global Oceans are severely hotter than we have ever observed since records began. There are several ocean heat waves. El Niño = danger for Galapagos marine life. Boiling Tropical Atlantic = early hurricanes. Cat 5 marine heatwave in UK! Here's a quick tour and thread 1/
Since ~1970 the Tropical Atlantic has warmed by 1.5 - 2 degrees F. This warming can be attributed to both greenhouse warming and decreasing aerosols. Each 1F increase in SST's = a "potential" intensity increase in strong tropical cyclones of 10 mph. 2/
Globally oceans have warmed by about the same on average, but some areas have warmed much faster. This has major impacts... 3/
Quite a few meteorologists in disbelief at the pattern across the US. Strong subtropical jet stream feeding widespread severe weather in the south. A winter El Nino pattern in summer. A polar jet extension in the Ohio Valley too with incredible high-latitude blocking. 1/
We have theories as to why high latitude blocking has been so overbearing. Many believe it’s Arctic Amplification. Some feel it’s a reflection of stratospheric forcing. It’s probably both. But my observations - thinking back to the 2015-2016 El Niño - there’s just more energy…
El Niño years especially there’s a greater amount of energy in the system and it seems to piggyback on the prevailing pattern that given season.
Great animation from NOAA which shows how this El Nino has developed. Warm anomalies start as an east-based event and then those anomalies grow westward. Want to understand how this changes the atmosphere? NOAA has a couple more useful visuals 1/
In a "normal" or neutral year (no EL Nino and No La Nina) you'd expect the "relative" warmest water to be over the western Pacific near Indonesia. That warm water means rising air and thunderstorms there and sinking air in the E. Pacific. Over the Atlantic the air rises.
In El Nino the relative warmest water moves into the central / eastern Pacific. Air rises there and sinks both to the west and east. Western Pacific ends up dry and Atlantic has increased sinking air and wind shear. "Typically" that reduces hurricanes in Atlantic.
Global Sea Surface Temperatures are at record levels, and not just by a little. The North Atlantic is a whole 1 degree F above record territory. From a meteorologist perspective there are few words to describe how out of bounds that is. So what is going on?? Thread...
Lots to discuss. There are a few marine heat waves you can see on this map. North Pacific. Equatorial Pacific. Tropical Atlantic. And NE Atlantic. Let's start with the Equatorial Pacific because that is the most obvious... El Nino.
There's a natural redistribution of waters in both basins every couple/ few years. Oscillations. These are normal. When the "relative" warmest water gathers around the Equator, esp across the Tropical Pacific because it is so large, you end up with large departures from normal..