Thread by @vmyths

1/🧵
Two years ago on June 14th, Steve Morgan's astronomically large yet unexplained #guesstimate for "the cost of cybercrime" exceeded the U.S. national debt.

This week the national debt officially topped $32 trillion, and the World Bank revised its global GDP projections…

https://twitter.com/CybersecuritySF/status/1670851348785397776

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…so let's revisit the #absurdity of Steve Morgan's ✌️predictions✌️ for "the cost of cybercrime."

We'll incorporate the latest numbers from the U.S. gov't debt website and the World Bank's global GDP projections.

Strap in. This absurdity is HUGE.

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As I've said before, it amazes me how often Steve Morgan's absurdities #dupe cyber experts like @dralissajay, @WaleMicaiah, @LHMphaphuli, @KenBeattyJr, @eSentire, @LilyLopate, etc. Their gullibility is part and parcel of cybersecurity's "infotainment sub-industry."

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This updated chart plots Steve Morgan's asinine #guesstimates against World Bank figures for the 2015-2021 Global Gross Domestic Product and their projections up to 2025. Going onward, these charts show a 2.5% increase from an acceptable 2-3% for a healthy global GDP:

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Steve Morgan's "global cost of cybercrime" #guesstimates prove astronomical:

In 1½ years, his ✌️prediction✌️ will burn 9.8% of the World Bank's projected global GDP.

Morgan predicts nearly $1 of ✌️cost✌️ for every $10 of gross domestic production FOR THE ENTIRE PLANET:

6/🧵
Actually, I should say the World Bank's "currently" projected global GDP. They revise their projections every half-year and highlight the differences--

--unlike Steve Morgan, who claims a perfect prediction track record all the way back to 2015:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1555054…

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Steve Morgan's #guesstimates only extend to 2025. So, let's suppose they stabilize at "$10.5 trillion" from 2026 onward and a healthy global GDP rises 2.5% per year.

Morgan's 16yr tally will INTERSECT the 2030 global GDP line — and his 20yr tally will exceed $160 trillion:

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Steve Morgan can't avoid the #absurdity of his predictions if he declares "0% growth" from 2026 onward:

It would take ONE HUNDRED YEARS for the global GDP to catch back up to Morgan's "total cost of cybercrime."

That's when they'll both equal $1 QUADRILLION 💸

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Sadly, too many experts adore Steve Morgan's bullshit predictions. Take, for example, @dralissajay:

She was President Obama's deputy CIO -- and she STILL touts Morgan's 9.80% of global GDP as "the annual loss due to cybercrime" in 1½ years.

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