ok i have had many people contact me about the counter offensive, has it failed, has ukr lost the war, huge losses..
blah, blah, blah...
now stop talking and listen.
there is a plan, sometimes plans change..
ukr is still attacking and russia is still losing ground and taking… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
now can they take a pause... YES
if anyone remembers in 2003 when the us stopped outside baghdad to take a break.... the news was screaming about tanks stuck in the desert and the US losing the war... it was a plan. but the plan worked too well and the tanks needed a break for… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
so far the ukr forces have lost maybe...
20 M2A2s
10-15 leopard 2s 2-3 AMX 10s
some max pros
1 hmmwv
and 2-4 M113s
thats about it
ru losses are harder to nail down but somewhere around...
20-40 BMPs
20-40 BTRs
20+ tanks
dozens of trucks
nearly 100 arty guns
5 KA 52s damaged or shot down
with at least 3000 troops killed (at least)
and i bet that number is low
this fight has had russia stripping its forces from other areas to fill in gaps and use entire divisions to try to hold small towns. this leaves other areas not as well defended along the front... and every time ru moves units they get hit.
if you start out with 100 guys and 10 vehicles every time they move up they lose guys to ukr arty... so if you take a force and move them from one area to another every time they loose vehicles and people... so when they DO get into a fight with fresh ukr troops they are no where… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
here is the question for you simple people telling me that ukr has lost big....
how many brads with 100 serial number have been lost?
0
how many with 200? 1. thats brad 250, and the crew lived..
so only 1 company (3rd with the 300s) was hit....
so of the 9 bradley companies only… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
and the brads are being replaced and that company only lost 5 troops.
BUT ok here is my question...
how many strykers have they lost?
CV90s?
leopard 1s?
T55S?
marders?
challengers?
or M1117?
or how many of the more than 400 western supplied T72s have they lost.... few.
even the russians are saying that ukr has over 900 heavy armored vehicles… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
so please STOP telling me that all is lost for ukr, for russia yes... the war can only go one way now...
but dont get pissy if ukr stops and relooks at things and adjusts the battle plan... it happens.
Today i listened to self, hey lets move commo gear to the new shelves. Got 10% done... yes about 10%. In 100 deg texas heat. Self is an ass, never listen to that guy
i think we are seeing something with this draw down..
what i think is going on is that we dont have the number of "serviceable" older bradley vehicles in stock.
we (army) has moved on from ODS and SA versions to the A3/4 versions of the M2/M7 vehicles in storage.
the US has been mass scrapping the M2 for years.
the DOD has decided that the US does not need heavy any more, and that in some way some how the army is some day going to get rid of the M2.... so they DLA has already started. M2 storage at red river depot over the last few… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
where did they go?
the scrap yard... they are gone.
that is one HELL of a blast, and the crew managed to get out... i was in a brad for 15+ years.. the crews bitch about them but they can take a hit.
this is the Bradly that was hit on the commanders side with a mine and the crew got out and climbed on the other bradly and got out. what you dont know is that there is a lock that holds the front engine hatch down. the blast sheared the latch... its NOT a small latch.. and the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
ummm, this is backed up by reports of guns going off and killing crews and the casings coming apart in loading the ammo... "According to available information, large batches of 122 and 152 mm artillery ammunition produced in 2023 are prohibited for use due to their… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
so a LARGE amount of the ammo they have made this year and last, can not be used. and remember they only have 1 plant that makes ammo like this
remember russia has not produced mass amounts of shells after 1991. they were living off surplus.
we know that in the last mob they did NOT get 300K, at MOST they got 250K, and of them many were unfit for service and had to be sent home, along with self harm and accidents that was probably closer to 225K...
so they are saying that 285 new units thats about 200… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
just got off the phone and computer with 2 trusted former intel people. some of the take aways we got that we can openly talk about (that is known) is that as predicted ukr is not pushing for a single deep thrust as much as a thrust along the entire line.
we are tracking 3-4 thrusts with more probably coming. this will force ru to use up or shift forces to block all the thrusts. with ukraine probably to launch more than 25 major thrusts in the next few days. this will force ru to block every one or they may have a breakthrough. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
every time ru blocks a thrust they have to bring res forces out of hiding, or from the deep reat and bring them in rang of ukr 155mm guns or himars. once the res forces are used and no more mobile blocking forces are left then the real fun should start.