Thread by @TrentTelenko

The Polish & Slovak Mig-29's are now in front line Ukrainian PSU service defending Ukrainian air space.

These fighters help replace losses, but do not provide the increased capabilities needed from 4th Generation Western jets.

Ukrainian Air Defense 🧵
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censor.net/en/news/342487…

This recent article from the Economist gives a good snapshot of Ukrainian air defense capabilities around Kyiv when six Killjoy, Mig-31 air-launched ballistic missiles, were volleyed at the MIM-104 Patriot battery there.

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economist.com/europe/2023/06…

This statement from that article stood out:

"Kh-47 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile was not only beatable; but it was actually travelling at “only” around approximately 1,240 metres per second, a third of what the Russians like to claim."🤨

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This interview of PSU Col Serhiy Yaremenko by Ukrainian journalist Anastasia Olekhnovich of Army Inform on the Ukrainian air defense needs is a must read and a usable substitute for those who don't want to deal with the Economist paywall.

4/
armyinform.com.ua/2023/06/15/kom…

The problem for Ukraine is while more Mig-29's help.

They simply are not up to the task of stopping Russian KH-35 (tagged "Harpoonski" by some in the West for its likeness to the USN anti-ship missile) coast defense missile strikes.

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While the KH-35's land attack accuracy is no good for anything else but hitting cities.

It is small, low radar cross section (RCS) target.

And thus, hard for Cold War era Mig-29 radars to track & kill.

5/
censor.net/en/news/342485…

Ukraine's Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions are all in range of the truck launched KH-35's.

There will never be enough Western SAM batteries to cover Ukrainian cities.

4th Gen jets like the F-16, F-18, Typhoon & Gripen are needed ASAP.

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The problem with that 'as soon as possible' requirement is De-Escalation faction chief honcho National Security Advisor Sullivan's campaign to trickle feed aid to Ukraine:

defenseone.com/policy/2023/06…

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The idea that it would take months to arrange the F-16 or any other high tech weapon maintenance supply chain founders on the concept of "Contractor Logistical Support" I explained in a April 2022 🧵.

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https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1513318592334475265

Ukrainian Su-24, Su-27 and Mig-29 pilots with a year of combat are already rated by USAF trainers as a 4-months at peacetime training rates F-16 transition. 

These guys are MOTIVATED as well as skilled, so I'd guess as little as two and a half months working 12-16 hours a
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...day, seven days a week.

There are enough F-16 simulators to support that level of accelerated training in NATO. 

I helped to deliver many of them from the N. Texas defense contractor that had 80% of the F-16 trainer market and sold Australia it's F-18 simulators to boot
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The De-Escalation faction is ideologically committed to preserving Russia as a piece in the "Great Game" with China & is stringing Ukraine along to keep the war at a 'slightly Ukraine leaning' stalemate until Americans get tired of the war.

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Thus forcing Ukraine to accept a Korean War style armistice, complete with a DMZ and permanent Russian occupation of Ukrainian territory.

Since all of this is in Putin's and not the West's common sense and collective security interests.

It means

thehill.com/opinion/nation…
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De-Escalation cliques are working from a deep identity issue from the political left.

When you get down to brass tacks, Ukraine is fighting a "Just War."

A real life "Just War" wrecks the De-Escalation clique's ideological belief that all sides
iep.utm.edu/justwar/
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...in war are guilty and morally equivalent.

It requires such a genuinely deviant belief system, & a very selective moral code, to trickle feed to Ukraine weapons it can win the war with like we have been seeing the West, lead by the NSC/De-escalation clique dominated

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...Biden Administration, do.

A lot of Europeans see the US De-escalation clique based in the Biden Administration National Security Council as a lost cause.

I can't say they are wrong on that⬇️

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https://twitter.com/kategoestech/status/1670462998001975296?s=46&t=ROUTax9viD9hwkF0FfbgJQ

The only way I see things getting better for Ukraine in terms of war winning weapons deliveries is if President Biden fires NSA Sullivan (however his exit is termed to the media).

I have little, if any, hope of that happening for reasons I stated in a previous thread.

16/16 End