Ukraine is continuing the counterattack in the Melitopol direction. It is the most fortified part of the whole front, with roughly two main defensive lines and multiple secondary layers of defense.
Now we will take a look at the 2nd one of the two main defensive lines. 1/
To give you perspective, in this thread we're examining the fortifications near Mykhailivka. The area is still 25-30km from the frontline, so most likely no fighting will take place here in the near future. 2/
In the first picture we have a part of a nearly 50 kilometre long anti-tank ditch, which runs almost without breaks from the Dnipro river to Tokmak. In the second picture there is a part of the ditch witch surrounds Mykhailivka from all sides expect from the south. 3/
Infantry fighting positions are built between the anti-tank obstacles. Connected to the trench there are dugouts and other relevant components, like room for ammo and equipment. When finished, usually the dugouts and trenches leading to them are covered with a roof. 4/
Behind the trenches and the two anti-tank obstacle lines there are some additional fighting positions and vehicle shelters. 5/
This was only a snapshot of the most fortified area in occupied Ukraine. In the big picture, it's part of a network of fortifications that spans hundreds of kilometres all the way from Crimea to Northern Luhansk. This is a real challenge for AFU, as we have seen already. 6/
Victory in this area will require careful planning and extensive training. "Just shoot it with HIMARS" is not the answer. If it was, Ukraine would not still be struggling in the first line of defense. Even though these fortifications are static and very visible, they work. 7/
According to our data, the Russians did not accelerate their advance during June. The pace isn't slow, but most of the Russian gains last month were in less crucial areas.
It can be argued that Russia mostly wasted June without achieving significant success. 1/
The situation isn't great for Ukraine, but it could be worse.
The salient between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka is still an issue, but it didn't rapidly expand in June. The front in Sumy was also stabilized. The worst-case scenarios didn't materialize, at least not yet. 2/
A large part of the Russian gains were south of Pokrovsk, where they are pushing towards the administrative borders of Donetsk oblast. Entering Dnipropetrovsk oblast doesn't change the general situation much, even though there's a lot of Russian propaganda about it. 3/
On June 1, Ukraine conducted a successful operation targeting Russian strategic bombers and other aircraft.
Our battle damage assessment can confirm the following losses: 12 destroyed and 3 damaged aircraft, of which 14 are strategic bombers and 1 is a transport aircraft. 1/
From videos and satellite images, 23 distinct aircraft were identified in total as potentially targeted. The condition of 4 aircraft seen in videos remains unclear. Available evidence doesn’t allow for assessing potential damage or whether nearby drones even detonated. 2/
The highest possible number for total losses is 19, if all aircraft in unknown condition are actually damaged. However, this can’t be confirmed at the moment.
In 4 cases, it appears the drones likely missed, did not explode or cause visible damage for other reasons. 3/
Ukraine has struck multiple strategic bombers in Olenya, Murmansk oblast, 1800 km from Ukraine. This is one of the most successful drone strikes against against Russian air bases in the entire war. The extent of the damage is yet unclear, but I can already say it's significant. 1/
Russia had transferred the valuable planes to Olenya to avoid the exact scenario we're seeing on the videos and photos coming from the area. Bombers operating from the field have repeatedly struck Ukraine with cruise missiles. 2/
These are major and expensive losses for Russia that can't be replaced quickly.
Additionally, the air base in Belaya, roughly 4300 km from Ukraine, has been hit. Also Dyagilevo and Ivanovo air bases are burning. This is a very, very successful day for Ukraine. 3/
During April and May, the Russians formed a dangerous salient against the Ukrainian defenses between Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk.
The so-called spring offensive has progressed relatively quickly, and serious issues may lie ahead in the near future. 1/
Defending forces in the area initially consisted of newer, less capable brigades, such as the 142nd, 155th & 157th. Elements from other units were also present. Reserves have been brought in – first the 36th marine brigade, and now the 82nd air assault brigade, among others. 2/
Russia's probable operational objectives for the coming months in the area include:
Formation of an encirclement threat around Kostiantynivka
Formation of an encirclement threat around Pokrovsk
Disruption of Ukrainian supply & command elements in the cities in the AO 3/
Russia has five active air bases near northern Finland and Norway. In this thread, I will go through the bases and their recent changes in activity and infrastructure, and how the war in Ukraine has affected them.
There have been some surprising developments. 1/
The five air bases are located in Murmansk oblast: Severomorsk-1, -2 and -3, Monchegorsk and Olenya. There are more air bases near Finland further south in Karelia and St. Petersburg, but currently most of the largest and militarily active ones are in the north. 2/
In June 2022 Russia announced plans to repair several of the northern air bases. The work has begun. In Severomorsk-1, fighter shelters on the eastern side of the field were repaired somewhere between 2023-24. However, in Severomorsk-2, there are more surprising changes. 3/
Russia is developing its military infrastructure and conducting organizational reforms near Nato’s northern flank, especially near Finland. News agencies from different countries have asked me about the topic, and in this thread I will share some recent observations. 1/
Firstly, a brief overview of the organisational level. In 2024, Russia reestablished the Leningrad Military District (LMD) as a part of a larger reform of the military districts. The LMD covers the north-western Russia, including Baltic and arctic directions. 2/
At the same time, Russia is expanding its existing brigades into divisions and bringing entirely new troops into Finland's neighboring regions. For example, the 138th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade from Kamenka was recently transformed into the 69th Motor Rifle Division. 3/