Ukrainians have continued their attacks in Kursk. Today, an armored column advanced towards Bolshoye Soldatskoye, and reportedly fighting is ongoing in other villages too.

I find it unlikely that these actions could produce very significant results. 1/ The Ukrainians are facing a stronger enemy. It's possible they achieve some tactical success with the element of surprise, and in the best case scenarios they may be able to enter some villages. In the big picture, however, the general situation will likely remain the same. 2/

During the past year, there have been several attacks against critical infrastructure near Finland. Russians are being increasingly apparent in their will to escalate the situation in the Baltic Sea.

These events must be set in the right context to understand why they happen. 1/ In the most recent case, cargo ship Eagle S damaged the Estlink-2 cable. The investigation has just begun, so officially Finland isn’t blaming anyone. However, there’s a recurring pattern and practically only one country can be behind it - Russia. 2/

It has been claimed that this is a video of North Korean infantry attacking in Kursk. A few of points:

Firstly, this isn't a human wave assault, as there's no fighting. Around 40 soldiers can be counted, which means it's likely a platoon on the move through an open field. 1/ The video quality is low, I can't visually confirm if they are NK soldiers. However, it's possible they are, as they should currently be in the area.

Other videos of similar actions from nearby locations have also been posted on Telegram channels.

It seems that the Ukrainian defenders in Hannivka may be encircled, as Russians pushed deeper into Uspenivka.

Based on geolocated footage and both Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels, a Ukrainian detachment of unknown size has been cut off from the rest of the troops. 1/ The situation in Hannivka has reportedly been difficult before already, as the enemy could threaten the thin supply lines from both sides. Despite the obvious threats the Ukrainians seemingly were not given the order to retreat from the dangerous positions. 2/

This fall has been grim for Ukraine. According to our assessment, between 1 September and 30 November, the Russians captured over 1600 km2 in Ukraine, and retook roughly 500 km2 in Kursk. The rate of advance accelerated every month, despite the Russians suffering heavy losses. 1/ Already at the end of the summer, the situation seemed to be developing in a worrying direction. Especially in August, the Russian gains were relatively large, and it did not seem like the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk would significantly slow down the Russians. 2/

Russia is advancing, but it’s also spending significant amounts of men and material in the process.

In this thread I’ll take a look on two important directions: Kurakhove and the concerning developments there, and the politically motivated Kursk counteroffensive. 1/ In Kurakhove, the Russians are closing in from almost all directions. They have entered the eastern part of the town, and it seems a couple of large Ukrainian fortified strongpoints have already fallen. Some troops also entered the village of Dalne. 2/

The Russians recently launched a large offensive in eastern and southern Donetsk, on a 70 kilometers wide front.

The attack has breached Ukrainian defences in just a few days in many areas, and there can be some dangerous developments ahead, which I’ll discuss in this thread. 1/ The operation has two main focus areas, the Selydove-Kurakhivka area and the southern direction, where the enemy is currently advancing in the area between Shakhtarske and Bohoyavlenka. Both directions have their own problems and threats. 2/

Recently, it has been said that North Korean troops in Ukraine are a sign of Russia’s weakness.

While this arrangement naturally proves once again that the war isn’t going as Russia initially wanted, I view this as a practical solution rather than just simple weakness. 1/ Russia's problems shouldn't, of course, be downplayed.

You don’t have to be Clausewitz to understand that the quick operation to subjugate Ukraine isn’t going very well, when you hear the words “North Korean troops will likely soon arrive in Kursk to help Russia”. 2/

Assessment of the situation in Kursk direction

In the last few days, the Russians have continued successful attacks against the western flank of the Ukrainian-controlled area in Kursk. The Ukrainian defences were breached and Russian troops were able to push relatively deep. 1/ Let’s take a brief look at the recent developments.

Russians have carried out multiple counterattacks in Kursk in September and October. The first major success was opening the land route between Glushkovo and Korenevo. For Ukraine, this was a problematic setback. 2/

Vuhledar has now most likely fallen to the Russians.

Some Ukrainian sources are still reporting of resistance inside the city, but because of recent geolocations, I believe the Russians are now de facto controlling the town. The fighting continues in the surrounding fields. 1/ There can of course be some small pockets of Ukrainian defenders inside the town, and they may even have a foothold on the northeastern corner of Vuhledar. However, it can't be said that the Ukrainians would be in control of Vuhledar anymore. 2/

During September, Russians have made significant gains in the Vuhledar area.

The situation on a previously stable front has quickly deteriorated, and the Russians are less than five kilometers from the main supply road. 1/ Vuhledar has withstood many attacks during the years.

One of the most famous incidents was the defense against the Russian winter offensive in early 2023. The Russians attacked with a lot of armored support, but suffered very heavy losses while achieving very little. 2/

Recently, a new development in drone warfare has been sighted - the so-called Dragon drones.

Ukrainian drones are pouring thermite on Russian positions. This is something different from FPVs and bombers, and from a psychological viewpoint rather terrifying. 1/🧵 Thermite is a substance that burns at very high temperatures. Not only do the trees and bushes burn, but it can also damage equipment, vehicles and fortifications, and cause severe burns to soldiers.

With less vegetation, drone recon and strike missions are more effective. 2/

Recent developments on the eastern front are indicating serious issues in the Ukrainian ability to control the Russian offensive. The Pokrovsk front has the potential to turn into a larger crisis.

In this thread I'll analyze the situation and the reasons behind it. 1/🧵 Russia is focusing its attacks on two directions in eastern Ukraine: Pokrovsk and Toretsk. Recently, Russian forces have made advances in both areas, particularly in Pokrovsk.

In the last two to three weeks, the situation has been deteriorating. 2/

The Kursk offensive, situation update.

The operation continues. Ukrainians have expanded their area of control, pushing north towards Lgov and east towards Belitsa.

We had to modify some map visualization styles to better represent the situation. 1/ Part of the Ukrainian focus seems to have shifted to the southeastern part of the AO, to the Belitsa direction.

Ukrainians have likely entered several villages between Belitsa and the state border. There are some uncertainities, as there's very little material from here. 2/

Kursk offensive, situational update:

The operation has been ongoing for a almost a week. During the last days, Ukraine has not made very significant progress, but they have started solidifying their positions in the newly captured areas.

1/ As expected, it took Russia a few days to transfer units to the area, and they will likely continue to do so in the coming days. With their current forces, the Russians have managed to prevent any more serious breakthroughs from happening. Local counterattacks have started. 2/

Kursk offensive, situation update:

Ukrainians have pushed further in all directions. They have at least a partial control of Sudzha and they're pushing towards Koronevo-Rylsk direction.

Smaller detachments are operating on in the area of the Sudzha-Lgov road. 1/ It is unclear how large the Ukrainian area of control actually is, and what areas are so-called grey zones, where neither party has a solid control. The map is a conservative assessment - Ukrainians may control additional villages. OPSEC is still very tight. 2/

The ongoing Ukrainian offensive in Kursk oblast has begun successfully.

In less than two days, Ukraine has achieved a breakthrough, pushing at least 12 kilometers deep, through two lines of Russian fortifications.

The Russians seem to be in a state of disarray. 1/ Why was this possible?

1. Failure of Russian military intelligence or leadership

2. Inadequate Russian border forces

3. Ukraine deciding to commit significant forces in Kursk instead of strengthening the east in order to stop the Russians in Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions

2/

Russia has been able to advance unusually quickly in the Niu York-Toretsk direction, which has been a mostly static direction since 2022.

While breaching the Ukrainian defences there, Russia has also made additional gains in the villages around Ocheretyne. 1/ One of the main reasons for these rapid developments seems to be related to Ukrainian rotations.

In late June, AFU rotated the 24th Mechanized Brigade from the Toretsk-Niu York area to Chasiv Yar. 41st Mech from Chasiv Yar took over the positions in Toretsk-Niu York. 2/

Russia’s operation on the northern side of Kharkiv has lasted over six weeks. There have been serious difficulties at both operational and strategic level.

While the offensive is stuck, satellite images show the Russians have begun fortifying the newly occupied areas. 1/🧵 The Kharkiv operation had three probable goals:

1. Create confusion and tie Ukrainian reserves to a secondary direction, so that progress could be made elsewhere

2. Form a “buffer zone” between Belgorod and Ukraine

3. Possibly get parts of Kharkiv within artillery range

2/

Here in Finland, the last 24 hours have been geopolitically unusual.

Reports from Russia suggested a unilateral desire to modify their maritime borders in the Gulf of Finland and near Kaliningrad. The Finnish government learned about this through the media. 1/🧵 The government tried to get more information, as the Russians didn't inform Finland.

Suddenly, Russia reversed its previous stance, and there was no more ambitions to check or move the borders. The Finnish politicians assured that there's no drama involved. However... 2/

The Kharkiv offensive has been ongoing for a week. Russia had some initial success, but Ukraine has been able to restrain Russian forces from advancing deeper.

There are many narratives and claims surrounding the situation. First, why was Russia able to advance so quickly? 1/ "Digital scanning" of the border area is almost continuous. The Russian air reconnaissance, electronic warfare and strike teams and are active in many areas. This made it difficult for Ukraine to prepare heavy defences or to concentrate a large amount of troops at the border. 2/