Russian Telegram channels are flooding with videos of a terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall, a music venue Moscow.

The video material suggests that there were at least four attackers, some sources say five. They were armed with fully automatic AK-type assault rifles. 1/ The building was set on fire during the attack. According to Ria Novosti, a Russian state media, the "fire is getting stronger". This means confirming the amount of dead and injured may take a while. 2/

t.me/rian_ru/237104

Dark months ahead for Ukraine.

The third year of the Russian full-scale invasion begins, and Ukraine is facing multiple difficulties. There's no room for optimism, as many problems can’t be solved in the coming months.

In this thread: Issues, threats and the future. 1/ While Ukraine was on the offensive in 2023, Russia silently amassed significant forces. Since mid-October, Russians have been attacking on multiple fronts. At the same time, Ukraine faces both external and internal challenges. Let’s start with the Ukrainian problems. 2/

I watched Tucker Carlson’s interview with Putin. It exemplifies how a person who thinks too much of himself is put into the position of a useful idiot.

Dictators aren't interested in truth or journalism; those who think otherwise are only deceiving themselves. 1/ 🧵 Carlson's bias is well-known. He has repeatedly criticized Western media and leaned towards the Russian narrative.

Even though there was no critical element involved in the interview, he may have genuinely thought he still could get something valuable out of it. 2/

Russian operations in the Kupiansk direction have continued with varying intensity for months.

Russian gains have been very limited, but this evening the Russians announced that they have taken the village of Krokhmalne. 1/6 Ukrainians have also reported continuous Russian attacks in the Synkivka area. Despite Russian efforts, they haven't been able to punch through Synkivka, which would be the shortest route to Kupiansk.

There's also no indication of Russians continuing far beyond Krokhmalne. 2/

Ukrainian operations on the eastern bank of the Dnipro river, in the village of Krynky, have been ongoing since October 2023.

In this thread, I'll analyze the current situation and the future of the bridgehead in Krynky.

The thread includes high-resolution satellite images. 1/ A brief timeline of the events in the Dnipro River Delta since the liberation of Kherson. The “river war” has been a long process, often conducted in challenging conditions.

However, it has not generally been discussed as much in the media as some other sectors. 2/

This very interesting video has been circulating in the social media for a couple of days. A few observations:

1. Russians have tried to attack in the same area before, and have lost about half a company of tanks. For some reason, they believe this time will be different. 🧵 2. When zooming in the first tank, I'm not quite sure if the mine clearing equipment on the right side of the tank is 100% in order.

3. It also seems that the tank drives into a line of mines, which have not been hidden in any way - just quickly laid on the ground.

As 2024 begins, the war in Ukraine continues. A thread about how some last year's key developments will shape this year.

First, the numbers: According to our estimate, Russia occupied roughly 18.26 % of Ukraine on 1.1.2023. A year later, Russia occupies a bit over 18.27 %. 1/ In the context of gaining ground, capturing Bakhmut and its surrounding towns was the most central accomplishment of the year for the Russians.

However, the strategic meaning of this event was rather limited, and Russia has not been able to significantly continue from there. 2/

As usual, a vatnik spreads lies about how most Finns perceive their history.

Especially the outcome of the Winter War should be weighed against the Soviet goals. Independence remained, Soviet losses were high and they had to change their objectives for the whole operation. 1/ Finland fought hard and managed to stop the Soviet offensives in multiple directions both in 1939-40 and in 1944. Sometimes this is referred as a "defensive victory". We remember that with pride and make memes of it now, but it came with a heavy price for a small nation. 2/

Astetta synkempi turvallisuuspoliittinen kirjoitus, olkaapa hyvä.

Ukraina haluaa vuoden 1991 rajansa takaisin, ja länsi nyökyttelee mukana. Tavoitteen mittaluokka on kuitenkin niin massiivinen, ettei sitä ole ehkä lännessä ihan kunnolla käsitetty. 1/

iltalehti.fi/ulkomaat/a/0a5… Ukrainan julkilausuttujen tavoitteiden saavuttaminen tarkoittaa Venäjän asevoimien lyömistä jokaisella suunnalla. On syytä kyseenalaistaa, voiko tällaista tavoitetta todella saavuttaa pelkkiä aseita ja ammuksia lähettämällä, vai pitäisikö miettiä aseavun ulkopuolisia keinoja. 2/

The battle of Bakhmut continues. The Russians have recently been attacking with some success.

Ukraine is facing some difficulties especially on the northern side of the city of Bakhmut, and some of the gains made during the spring and summer have been lost. 1/ During summer 2023, the situation looked promising for a while. On the northern side of Bakhmut, Ukrainians reached Berkhivka and advanced towards Yahidne. On the southern side, Ukrainians reached Klischchiivka. 12 kilometers of Donets-Donbas canal was cleared of the enemy. 2/

Recent developments in Finland:

Over the past few days, Russia has sent an increasing number of migrants to Finland's borders. Finland has closed several border crossing points due to the authorities' threat assessment.

A video surfaced of the Russian operation. 1/ The video stops roughly at 64.547355, 30.960533. About 50 km from the Finnish border. The people are moving towards Finland.

The operation is orchestrated by Russian authorities. These people couldn't move in the border control zone if the Russians wouldn't let them. 2/

The Russians have been attacking in the Avdiivka direction for a week.

Even though the intensity of the offensive has decreased, Russia has suffered large equipment losses and has made very limited progress, Ukraine is still in a potentially dangerous situation. 1/ The general situation in Avdiivka is clear. Russians attempt to encircle the city from two sides. In order to do this, the Russians would have to advance through multiple fields and villages. After a week of fighting, Ukraine still has a 7-8 km gap between the Russian pincers. 2/

There have been some security developments in Finland lately.

A gas pipeline and a data cable between 🇫🇮 and 🇪🇪 have been damaged by an external activity. The Finnish government doesn't want to say it's Russia, but there are not exactly many "external actors" in the area. 1/ This is a strike against critical infrastructure, most likely by a country which has also threatened Finland in various ways before. If Finland gives a soft response, Russia will keep poking. At the moment there's been mostly talks about a possibly Nato-assisted investigation. 2/

Many people have asked for a map of events in the Gaza strip area today. In this thread, some main points and developments.

Hamas attacked on a wide front and quickly overran Israeli border defences in multiple areas. Hamas forces advanced into multiple border towns. 1/ In addition to the map above, Hamas conducted sea operations and reportedly landed smaller units in the direction of the city of Ashkelon. Also claims of Hamas forces crossing the border in the southern Gaza area surfaced, but I haven't been able to confirm those yet. 2/

The Israeli tracked vehicle losses are high. Today I have counted at least the following, mostly captured but some also damaged:

6x Merkava Mk.4 MBT

10x Achzarit APC

5x M1113 APC

2x Namer APC

On top of these, there are multiple wheeled vehicle losses for the IDF. Merkava #1
Namer #1

Both captured, no major visual damage

Ukraine has expanded its control of the areas west of Verbove, and armoured vehicles are operating beyond the first Surovikin line. At the same time, the villages of Andriivka and Klishchiivka were liberated south of Bakhmut.

Are we seeing a breakthrough? Time for a thread. 1/ In September, Ukraine advanced a couple of kilometres in the fields west of Verbove, beyond the main defensive line. They also captured fortified positions south of Robotyne and continued further south. Russian counterattacks have not been able to recapture lost positions. 2/

The situation in the Robotyne-Verbove area is developing in a positive direction for the Ukrainians. Ukraine has further penetrated the first Surovikin line near Verbove, now reaching the main trenchline.

Ukrainians have also overran Russian positions south of Robotyne. 1/ It seems the Ukrainians have established a more permanent foothold in the outskirts of Verbove, and it's not just recon operations.

However, this isn't a breakthrough yet - we haven't seen quick maneuvers or Ukrainian armored vehicles operating beyond the dragon's teeth. 2/

Ukraine has breached the first Russian main defensive line, as known as the Surovikin line, in the direction of Verbove.

The village is integrated to the Russian defenses, and it's not clear if Ukraine tries to push inside the village, or are they just widening the flanks. 1/6 Ukrainians were geolocated to the outskirts of Verbove, at 47.44189, 35.95220.

That's well behind the anti-tank obstacles and first trenches. It's not yet clear how extensively the line has actually been breached, and if this is just reconnaissance operations. 2/6

The Ukrainian offensive in the Robotyne sector has progressed, and the first Russian main defence line has been reached.

In this thread we’ll take a closer look at the main defensive line and what might happen next.

This thread includes high resolution satellite imagery. 🧵 1/ Ukrainians have been trying to advance in the Robotyne area since June. After over two and a half months of fighting, Ukraine has liberated most of Robotyne and continued south, bypassing Novoprokokivka.

In this map, you can see the Southern front on 1.6. and now, 27.8.

2/

A new phase in Ukraine's counteroffensive seems to be underway in the south and east, while Russia is attacking in the north.

In this thread I will take a look at the key events & directions, and explain what the current situation means in the big picture. 1/ Ukrainians are counterattacking in the same directions as before. The most activity is observed near Robotyne and Staromaiorske. A strong push is also happening in the Bakhmut area. At the same time Russia is attacking in multiple directions on the Luhansk-Kharkiv front. 2/

In the Russian narrative the Kerch bridge strike in Crimea is called terrorism, as civilians died in the explosion.

In reality, the bridge is an absolutely legitimate and important military target, which the Ukrainians must attack in order to weaken the Russian logistics. 1/ Russian logistics rely heavily on trains, and the rail connection to southern front is very dependant on the Kerch bridge. The railway from Donetsk to Melitopol isn't as safe, as it's partly very close to the frontline. 2/