Military analyst & military history expert.
Following the war in @Black_BirdGroup
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✉️ emil@blackbirdgroup.fi
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It is evident that this operation was not merely a few infiltration groups slipping past Ukrainian lines only to be destroyed. While it may have begun as a lighter operation, Russian forces were prepared to exploit breakthroughs, successfully advancing into the Ukrainian rear. 2/
The situation had been deteriorating for some time. The Russians had been attempting to advance in the Dobropillia direction earlier this month. A gray zone had formed in the area, as the Ukrainians struggled to maintain a firm defence against the infiltrating enemy. 2/
From videos and satellite images, 23 distinct aircraft were identified in total as potentially targeted. The condition of 4 aircraft seen in videos remains unclear. Available evidence doesn’t allow for assessing potential damage or whether nearby drones even detonated. 2/ 
Defending forces in the area initially consisted of newer, less capable brigades, such as the 142nd, 155th & 157th. Elements from other units were also present. Reserves have been brought in – first the 36th marine brigade, and now the 82nd air assault brigade, among others. 2/
The five air bases are located in Murmansk oblast: Severomorsk-1, -2 and -3, Monchegorsk and Olenya. There are more air bases near Finland further south in Karelia and St. Petersburg, but currently most of the largest and militarily active ones are in the north. 2/ 
Firstly, a brief overview of the organisational level. In 2024, Russia reestablished the Leningrad Military District (LMD) as a part of a larger reform of the military districts. The LMD covers the north-western Russia, including Baltic and arctic directions. 2/ 
Putin says that Russian forces must be ready to repel potential ceasefire violations and provocations.
In Kursk, the Ukrainian-controlled territory had been shrinking for months. It was a slow grind that hit a breaking point in March. The Ukrainian logistical situation had become increasingly difficult, and the Russians conducted a successful operation against the salient. 2/
As far as I understand from this statement, there will be a new Ukrainian brigade based on Nordic & Baltic training and equipment. In theory, this is positive news. This could, at its best, produce a highly capable unit, trained by some of the best militaries in Europe. 2/
Ukrainians are achieving limited success. It's likely an attempt to further grind down the Russian attacks which have slowed down during the last two months. The Ukrainians certainly also want to contain the threat of an encirclement around Pokrovsk. 2/
The attack was carried out by a battlegroup of likely 1-2 battalions in size, also equipped with engineering vehicles. Ukraine has a relatively large grouping of air assault, mechanized and other brigades in Kursk, but it’s unclear which participated in this operation. 2/
The losses of Velyka Novosilka and also Kurakhove ultimately had a rather limited impact on the broader dynamics of the battlefield in the southern and central Donetsk directions. The defensive importance of the towns had already decreased earlier, as the flanks fell. 2/
The Ukrainians are facing a stronger enemy. It's possible they achieve some tactical success with the element of surprise, and in the best case scenarios they may be able to enter some villages. In the big picture, however, the general situation will likely remain the same. 2/
In the most recent case, cargo ship Eagle S damaged the Estlink-2 cable. The investigation has just begun, so officially Finland isn’t blaming anyone. However, there’s a recurring pattern and practically only one country can be behind it - Russia. 2/ 
The situation in Hannivka has reportedly been difficult before already, as the enemy could threaten the thin supply lines from both sides. Despite the obvious threats the Ukrainians seemingly were not given the order to retreat from the dangerous positions. 2/
Already at the end of the summer, the situation seemed to be developing in a worrying direction. Especially in August, the Russian gains were relatively large, and it did not seem like the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk would significantly slow down the Russians. 2/
In Kurakhove, the Russians are closing in from almost all directions. They have entered the eastern part of the town, and it seems a couple of large Ukrainian fortified strongpoints have already fallen. Some troops also entered the village of Dalne. 2/ 