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Since a number of people are objecting to my 'gut prediction' in the previous🧵.
I'll lay out the data and my read of Ukrainian leadership & culture.
1st, the AFU has destroyed upwards of 250 guns and mortars in the last 10 days along with 1,000 tons of RuAF Southern
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I'll lay out the data and my read of Ukrainian leadership & culture.
1st, the AFU has destroyed upwards of 250 guns and mortars in the last 10 days along with 1,000 tons of RuAF Southern
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https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1671951968510640141
...Ukraine theater reserve munitions stocks.
2nd the Ukrainian experience with RuAF railway attacks early in the war has given them the practical experience in how to effectively damage/cut RuAF railway supply lines.
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2nd the Ukrainian experience with RuAF railway attacks early in the war has given them the practical experience in how to effectively damage/cut RuAF railway supply lines.
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https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1670971803987058688
Hence the cutting of the Changar rail and road bridges means no further rail delivered munitions by that route for the next 3-to-5 days from Crimea and likely much longer.
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https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1671754975800700929
Right now the AFU has effectively isolated RuAF forces west of Melitopol from artillery resupply for 10 to 14 days.
RuAF artillery vehicles have about 3-days stocks on them & RuAF has had to keep the normal unit tail resupply trucks out of FPV & Drone directed GMLRS range.
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RuAF artillery vehicles have about 3-days stocks on them & RuAF has had to keep the normal unit tail resupply trucks out of FPV & Drone directed GMLRS range.
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Which is one of the reasons why Ukraine used artillery-delivered US RAAM mines on the roads behind the front. RAAM mines that have a few hours to a few days timers that self-neutralize.
And Russia just threw its only theater divisional reserve in the south away without the
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And Russia just threw its only theater divisional reserve in the south away without the
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...ability to replace it for the same reason the RuAF can't get artillery munitions.
All the pieces are in place, and Ukraine has arranged a RuAF artillery firepower and mobile reserve deficit.
That data says NOW NOW NOW for phase 2 to me.
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All the pieces are in place, and Ukraine has arranged a RuAF artillery firepower and mobile reserve deficit.
That data says NOW NOW NOW for phase 2 to me.
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Finally, we get into the political-cultural realm.
Executives of Democracies in war become the "God's head" of their people. See Lincoln and the Gettysburg address, Churchill's 'We will fight them on the beaches' speech and Zelensky's "I need ammunition, not a ride" line.
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Executives of Democracies in war become the "God's head" of their people. See Lincoln and the Gettysburg address, Churchill's 'We will fight them on the beaches' speech and Zelensky's "I need ammunition, not a ride" line.
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Each in his own way reflected the "Come the Moment, Come the Man" you see in successful wartime Democracies.
The man who did this comedy routine about Ukrainian and Russian "Mother-Daughter relations" during the 2014-2015 Donbas ATO...
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The man who did this comedy routine about Ukrainian and Russian "Mother-Daughter relations" during the 2014-2015 Donbas ATO...
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...would absolutely work with AFU to arrange the Phase 2 Ukrainian counter-offensive to be on 22 June 2023 as the biggest Ukrainian troll of the Russians for the last 800 years.
I could be wrong on this, but it is what my gut says of Zelensky as Ukrainians' wartime leader.
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I could be wrong on this, but it is what my gut says of Zelensky as Ukrainians' wartime leader.
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And I said in the earlier thread, we won't know for sure for several days because of AFU operational security.
I've got the popcorn ready, just in case.
10/10 End
I've got the popcorn ready, just in case.
10/10 End
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