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Mark Galeotti Profile picture
@MarkGaleotti
Jun 24 • 4 tweets • 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
All still pretty unclear as to Prigozhin's rebellion, but am struck by the uncompromising language in Putin's emergency address in which he denounces this as treason and a betrayal of the Fatherland 1/
kremlin.ru/events/preside…
If Prigozhin thought there was a deal to be struck, this implies not. But I suspect VVP has (belatedly) come down hard because he must realise just how far his own legitimacy and credibility is on the line. 2/
Putin created Prigozhin, as a useful and biddable instrument (never one of his friends), and Putin allowed the Prigozhin/Shoigu rivalry to continue way past the point at which is was becoming dangerous and dysfunctional. 3/
His whole system is based on them, divide and rule on steroids, but it means that arbitrating these rows is one of his key and unique roles. No one else can do it - and so the buck stops with him when they spin out of control. 4/

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More from @MarkGaleotti

Mark Galeotti Profile picture
May 28
@Stanovaya @CarnegieRussia While I wholly accept Putin does have a grandiose sense of his historic mission, my point of divergence with you was the notion that from this came a strategy, and that he was in no way fearful about the situation 1/
@Stanovaya @CarnegieRussia First of all, I don't see Putin as a real strategist, but rather an improviser with a very loose sense of his goals; this is something that has marked his whole presidency. 2/
@Stanovaya @CarnegieRussia I also find it hard to believe that he is not at all afraid by the situation (especially having had not one but two authoritarian regimes collapse around him). However cocooned by yes-men, he must have some idea of how dire the situation and the long-term damage to Russia 3/
Read 6 tweets
Mark Galeotti Profile picture
May 27
.@Stanovaya is always well worth reading but I'm not convinced we're just talking about a 'messiah complex' + a genuine belief on his part that everything will work out. If anything, the opposite: he's least able to make decisions when they're hard 1/
carnegieendowment.org/politika/89826 Image
Micromanaging the war and aspects of reconstruction are distractions from the intractable big issues (like drawing up a detailed revision plan rather than actually revising!), a comfort. When faced with big, hard decisions (eg, end Kyiv offensive, leave Kherson) he dithers 2/
So he tends to make hard decisions too late and too badly - delaying mobilisation until after the campaign season and when so many trainers and so much kit had been lost was a case in point. His apparent desire to hold off any more mobilisations until after Sept elex another 3/
Read 6 tweets
Mark Galeotti Profile picture
May 10
A vicious but fair assessment of Gerasimov from @WarintheFuture - if anything, I'd add another failure, a moral as much as professional one. A short thread 1/
The role of the CoGS is not just to be the foreman of the military imposing the leadership's orders but also the shop steward, arguing the military's case and fighting its corner. This Gerasimov failed to do, and it's hard to get any sense he even tried 2/
Obviously in particular this means before the war: Russian doctrine, its approach to preparing for war and, I understand, even warnings from the GRU all seem to have been ignored. Gerasimov ought to have been the one man to stand up for all this 3/
inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2022/03/23/how…
Read 7 tweets
Mark Galeotti Profile picture
May 7
Hah, when I recorded this, I said that I thought Prigozhin would be walking back his threat to pull Wagner out of Bakhmut, before his deadline. I just hadn't appreciate just how quickly he would! A couple of thoughts 1/
bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Realistically, Prigozhin couldn't. Apart from the practical point that Wagner depends on the MOD for strategic mobility, short of just walking west, I don't think it would have been politically survivable for a man so wholly dependent on the Kremlin - and with so many enemies 2/
It would have been considered treachery, and we know what Putin thinks about traitors. Prigozhin's whole business empire - and possibly life and freedom were at stake. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Mark Galeotti Profile picture
May 3
Obviously the Kremlin drone story is still very much a breaking one, but people should really stop talking about this as an attempted assassination attempts against Putin. That's just playing to Kremlin talking points 1/
He notoriously rarely goes to the Kremlin, let alone stays there overnight, and there were no scheduled early morning meetings or the like there which might make one assume he might be in his (palatial) flat there 2/
Besides, that is, I understand, quite well protected. Not quite a bunker, but something that would be hard to hit by anything unable to make some sharp turns, which would make it vulnerable 3/
Read 5 tweets
Mark Galeotti Profile picture
May 2
A lengthy extract from my @OspreyBooks/@BloomsburyBooks book PUTIN'S WARS in @BusinessInsider, from the chapter on Spetsnaz. Of course, so many have since become casualties of the Ukraine war that this becomes more historical than anything else... 1/
businessinsider.com/mark-galeotti-…
Reconstituting these forces is more than just a matter of finding more warm bodies. Judging by memorials and the like, tactical officers have suffered disproportionate losses, so even if new 'Spetsnaz' are drafted into units, who will train and command them in the field? 2/
Similar things can be said about the VDV (paras) and MP (Naval Inf), but the Spetsnaz seem to have suffered even worse and demand even more from their tactical officers. They will need to be rebuilt near enough from scratch when the war is over. 3/
Read 4 tweets

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