Thread by @Jack_Mrgln

Prigozhin was much more likely aiming for concessions and a greater role for himself and his allies, using force as a last resort as MoD leadership pushed him out of the picture. This was a desperate bid, but possibly better than fading away with no security guarantees

1/n

That’s no longer possible. I have to believe that witnessing the Russian military’s failures in Ukraine firsthand has led to some hubris on the part of Prigozhin and co.

2/n

https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1672540680646713345

Up to now, Wagner has had the benefit of initiative (even as TG channels report that authorities planning armed response since yesterday). Rosgvardia and MPs don’t want to be the ones to kick off a gunfight.

3/n

But now we have Prigozhin going on record claiming that Wagner has downed two Mi-8Ts, possibly an Mi-35, with additional reports about downing of transport aircraft, battles in Voronezh, along highways.

4/n

Pro-Wagner channels temper this by claiming helo crews are alive and thought they (the crews) were firing on UA forces, fooled by MoD. Doesn’t matter, this can’t be walked back.

5/n

Putin has condemned Prigozhin, accused him of treason, and we can see propagandists like Solovyev pick up the narrative in real time. There’s no more ambiguity about official line.

6/n

https://twitter.com/albats/status/1672536586431627264

Effectiveness of the response is an open question. The temptation is to look at RDK incursions, lackluster performance in Ukraine, the shake -up in Rostov and consequently underestimate the Russian state response.

7/n

But there is a precipitous (to say the least) imbalance of men and equipment. Everyone likes to dunk on Russian military’s tires etc, but Wagner has no independent logistics and supply chain to sustain anything beyond short, sharp shock.

8/n

Unless they are counting on mass defection and battlefield capture. Which I don’t believe they will get, especially with Surovikin and Alexeev’s earlier denouncements.

9/n

Getting to Moscow would mean fighting up the highways towards a region where a high concentration of units are based. Exposed, along predictable paths, in busses, trucks, and vans. It would be very ugly.

10/n

Lastly, lots on telegram right now as channels scramble for latest development. Folks like @RALee85 and @UAWeapons do a great job of interpreting these and identifying what is most likely to be accurate.

/end