1/ The security forces in Moscow are reported to be utterly incapable of resisting a heavily armed force like Wagner. Police generals are said to considering which side to back, while forces on the ground are already defecting to Wagner. ⬇️
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that police generals held an emergency meeting at the Interior Ministry this morning to prepare the capital's defences. Normal police duties are being limited, with only major incidents being responded to.
3/ Checkpoints manned by police and National Guard units have been set up on the outskirts of the city. Former Wagner members living in Moscow are being taken into preventative custody. Behind the scenes, the generals are said to be "discussing how to serve the new regime."
4/ The security forces are in no shape to fight off Wagner. An Interior Ministry source says: "No one on the police force is ready for combat operations. Absolutely no one."
5/ "Even the police special forces, Grom, are not capable of engaging in combat operations with Wagner's storm troopers. It's one thing to get into a flat and throw oppositionists to the ground, but it's another thing to have as opponents people who are really ready to die."
6/ "The police are not ready for it, a warm office is not a foxhole."
Another source highlights Wagner's rapid decision-making as a key advantage, in contrast to the paralysis of the Russian authorities. Defence units are reported to be surrendering to Wagner.
7/ "Prigozhin is clearly not bluffing, they have at least 20,000 fighters. Many of them with serious experience. Decisions in Wagner are not made like in the Ministry of Defence through a bunch of yappers at the top, but almost instantaneously."
8/ "The forces deployed to defend Moscow are not enough to stop them. Parts of them surrender to [Wagner], they just go under their control." /end
1/ Transcript of Vladimir Putin's speech this morning:
"I appeal to the Russians, to the military and security agencies and to those who have been pushed onto the path of armed insurgency by deceit and threats.
2/ What we are facing is betrayal. Unreasonable ambition has led to treason. The heroes who liberated Soledar and Artemovsk [Bakhmut], fought for Novorossiya, their name and glory have been betrayed by those who are trying to organize an insurgency.
3/ Pushing the country towards anarchy and fratricide.
Any internal turmoil is a mortal threat to our statehood, to us as a nation. Our actions to defend the Motherland will be tough. All those who have taken the path of betrayal will suffer inevitable punishment.
1/ Russia's security forces are reported to be in disarray following the attempted mutiny by the Wagner Group. It seems to have been perfectly timed for a moment – Friday night – when many personnel were too drunk to respond quickly, while others are refusing to fight Wagner. ⬇️
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports what its sources are saying is the situation within various security organisations. At the FSB and Ministry of Internal Affairs, "Everyone is up and running, urgently reporting in. Now all the offices are like one big after-party."
3/ "80 per cent of the staff smell of booze. Some of them can barely stand on their feet. Can't arm 'em, can't send 'em anywhere. Friday night's the perfect time to start something like this. Everybody's standing around, waiting for something. No introductions."
1/ Wagner Group fighters have been saying goodbye to their relatives over the past 24 hours and telling them to watch the TV news, which suggests that they may have had advance notice of today's dramatic events with Yevgeny Prigozhin.
2/ Verstka reports that worried relatives are saying in Wagner-related chat rooms that their loved ones have "called and said goodbye" in the last 24 hours, and told them to watch for "what [TV channel] Rossiya 24 has to say".
3/ Chat participant Elena Kigeleva says: "Yesterday many guys called and 'conditionally' said goodbye. Many said watch the news." Multiple participants say they can't reach their Wagner men.
1/ Mobilised Russian soldiers facing the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhya say they are suffering huge casualties from precision shelling by Ukrainian forces, cannot evacuate their wounded, and are brutally treated for refusing orders they consider to be suicidal. ⬇️
2/ The independent Russian news outlet "Look out, news" (ON) reports that men of the 1430th Mobilised Rifle Regiment say that on 8 June, they were sent to hold front line trenches, likely near Robotyne, where they suffered heavy losses under Ukrainian artillery fire.
3/ "Within two weeks, several hundred men were out of action. Most of them have not seen the enemy and suffered from precise shelling ... The khokhols [pejorative term for Ukrainians] are hitting right into the trench. There's no point in sitting there," says one soldier.
1/ The Wagner Group is setting up its own military police force to enforce discipline in the occupied regions of Ukraine, even against Russian army troops, who it says are "boozing like pigs". It's currently seeking recruits among former law enforcement employees. ⬇️
2/ Wagner is recruiting former members of Russia's police and national guard special forces – the SOBR, OMON, GROM and other units – to serve in its new police force. An advertisement asking for volunteers has been posted to its VK (social media) page.
3/ The advert "invites former employees who have experience in operational work and detention" to carry out "detention, operational and commandant functions. The work will be interesting, you can rest assured of that."
1/ The Russian army is having an increasing problem with desertions, according to a leaked document which appears to show hundreds of men deserting from the Airborne Forces (VDV) since 1 February 2023. ⬇️
2/ The document, which has been published by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, is likely to come from a military prosecutor's office. It summarises criminal offences in the VDV over an unclear timeframe, probably starting from 1 February 2023.
3/ It states that there have been 325 cases of absence without leave (AWOL, or SOC in Russian), of which 228 men have been recovered and a further 97 are still wanted. Given that the VDV likely has around 40,000 men (45,000 pre-war), this may represent nearly 1% of the total.