Thread by @Edit_Kev

#NUFC have made their 1st senior signing of the summer, adding midfielder Sandro Tonali to the squad.

The 23-year-old has over 200 senior appearances, 14 caps for 🇮🇹 & joins on a 6-year deal for a reported £60m from AC Milan.

But what will he bring to SJP? Let's take a look 🧵

Before we dig into his performance data, it’s important to understand the role he has played at Pioli’s Milan.

In 22/23 Tonali tended to start on the left side of a two-man defensive midfield pairing.

But he wasn't REALLY a true number six #NUFC

Playing alongside Bennacer, Krunic or Kessie, Tonali was used in a more box-to-box role.

Here’s his average position in AC Milan’s last game of the season. This is broadly representative of his position relative to his teammates across the season. #NUFC

To further demonstrate this role, here’s a heatmap of Tonali’s ball receipts from across the entire 22/23 Serie A season.

It shows just how deep/wide he drops to receive the ball (a feature of the way Pioli releases his full-backs) AND how far up the pitch he pushes too. #NUFC

Due to the hybrid nature of his role, one that starts deep but is expected to cover large vertical spaces, I think there’s merit in showing Tonali’s output for the 8 & 6 roles.

So here is his output for both across the 21/22 🔵 & 22/23 🔴 seasons 🔽 #NUFC

Generally speaking, most of the changes here are just normal fluctuations in form between seasons.

However, there are some bigger dips in performance around his pass completions and in his defensive numbers.

Let’s keep these in as we break down Tonali’s game. #NUFC

☄️ 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠

One thing that’s immediately obvious is Tonali’s overall pass completion %, which in 22/23 was a very modest 77% some 5% down 🔽 on 21/22.

So what happened? Well, two things.

Firstly, in 21/22 he mainly played on the right side of the pitch #NUFC

Why should this make a difference? Well if you’re a right footer on the left, when you receive the ball with your back to goal or with your back to the touchline, your natural passing angles are into central - more contested areas and not down the line. #NUFC

The effect of this can be seen by looking at Tonali’s passing sonars for the last two seasons.

While the overall distance (length of shard) hasn’t changed all that much, the direction & success rate (🔴 is better) between the left (22/23) & right (21/22) side of the pitch #NUFC

Overall, Tonali attempts, 41.72 open play passes per-90 with an average pass length of 22.06m and an average successful pass length of 20.05m. For context, Bruno’s average overall pass length was 17.64m & Longstaff’s 16.46m. Howe’s system will make this easier for him at #NUFC

The second thing which changed was a shift in the way that AC Milan attacked as a team. The speed of play towards the opposition goal increased (directness) & they look to hit on the counter more in 22/23 🔴 than 21/22 🔵 #NUFC

Despite a reduction in his ball security, there were some creative benefits to Tonali’s switch to the left side of central midfield & a more direct approach.

When we look at his key passes 🔵 & assists 🔴 from 22/23 we see a good variety of long, short and set-piece chances. 🔽

When we look back at 21/22 we see less by way of assists, but more consistency in terms of location, and it’s that location that I want to draw your attention to (see green square). #NUFC

A cross from the right half-space is an option in one of #NUFC’s attacking patterns to break down low blocks.

It was attempted 56 times from open play over the course of the 22/23 season. Of these just 7 ended in a direct shot, and none ended in a goal as the result of a pass.

Here’s an example of when the pattern was used to break down a stubborn Fulham defence… Murphy & Trippier exchange passes, Murphy creates space with the run and Longstaff has acres for his cross 🔽 #NUFC

Not only does Tonali have a couple of assists in a team not really attempting this pattern, but he’s also a very good crosser of the ball from even wider.

His ability to this play this ball consistently is a weakness of Longstaff’s. #NUFC

This crossing ability helps Tonali dead-ball situations too - while AC Milan’s 🔴 xG created from set pieces (0.27 per-90) lags way behind #NUFC 🔵 (0.49) - Tonali leads all Milan players in this metric (0.06 per-90), giving Howe another option whenever Trippier is unavailable.

But crosses aren’t the only pass that makes Tonali stand out.

While there aren’t a huge amount of high-guile down-the-side passes here, he can ping a long pass, loves a third-man run and plays one-twos. #NUFC 🔽

⚽ 𝐁𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐂𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠

The last of these clips shows Tonali’s ball-carrying skills.

While not to Bruno’s level, he carries the ball 34.08 per-90 with a 95% success rate, with an av. carry-length of 5.35m, surpassing every other #NUFC midfielder for volume & efficiency.

He’s also a hugely press-resistant ball carrier. Of the 281 carries he attempted under pressure, he lost the ball 🟡 just 38 times & successfully carried the ball 86.5% of the time. #NUFC

Here’s a very short montage of the sorts of carries to expect, he doesn’t try to do anything too fancy or try to take a man on.

But whenever there’s a chance to move into space, he makes the most of it. #NUFC

The last of these examples shows how active he is in the press and without the ball. This is a feature of AC Milan’s defensive style 🔴 - which is remarkably similar to #NUFC’s 🔵 🔽

If anything Milan’s aggression in the press & where it was triggered actually fell back from their 21/22 title-winning season (left) and 22/23 (right) #NUFC 🔽

Even so, Tonali’s defensive activity output was pretty impressive in both his own 21/22 (left) and 22/23 (right) seasons. #NUFC

So as we begin to wrap up, let’s take a look at Tonali vs. the two players he’s coming to #NUFC to play alongside and compete with.

First here’s Tonali’s 🔴 number 6️⃣ Radars for the 21/22 (left) & 22/23 (right) seasons compared to Guimaraes 🔵 #NUFC 🔽

And here’s the same versus Longstaff in the number 8️⃣ role.

Again Tonali’s 🔴 21/22 season (left) & 22/23 season (right) shows how closely he profiles to Longstaff but with better output 🔵 in the final third.

Exactly what #NUFC are looking for in a right-sided 8 🔽

To close, let’s look at a handful of goals Tonali has scored. Three things are clear:

1️⃣ he’s happy to drive to the goal line to get a tap-in
2️⃣ he can make a turnover high up the pitch count
3️⃣ he has the technical quality to take scruffy chances

#NUFC

@draylbret_t some players take to it easier than others. Maguire at Man Utd is a classic case of a righty not being able to play rcb very well.

The stuff in the sonars it, takes away the easier down the line ball.

@Gavoth More so than Longstaff and Bruno, he's certainly the second best 6 we have now at very least.

@Toon_TaIk Thank you

@rortonjibes Grazi Grazi 🇮🇹

@BillyL3926 @nufcsanjay No probs, these are fun to make (but do take up too much of my spare time really).

@UncleJeffThinks @NUFCblogcouk It'll happen. 99.9%

@_coachaaron_ Absolutely. Longstaff had his best season for #NUFC last year. If he adds more end product in the final third he'll be hard to displace.

Tonali's signing should push him to new heights.

@BillyL3926 @nufcsanjay No, I know and I appreciate anyone that takes the time to read, whether they agree with it or not

@AshleyWeddle81 I like him a lot. Even more, after doing this.

It was his overall passing % that took him away from my searches - I tried to be mainly data-led and remove my own biases in that thread.

@AshleyWeddle81 think so, but maybe there's a swap at some point. Football rarely stays the same for too long

@agbnufc_ Be nice to have a specialist for certain fixtures/situations and injuries.

But if you can't get better than Bruno at 6 for a reasonable fee, getting Tonali will release him a bit more often and that seems sensible.

Suspect Tonali will play there at some point anyways

@WillyWonderhill The squad is built around 433, gets the best out of the majority. It gives us a better plan B for sure though

@m77sc Seems like a good fit for what we’re trying to do. Longstaff was important for us without being spectacular, Tonali has a similar skill set but with more end product.

@GingerPirlo_ Heheh