Thread by @Kasparov63

Having been defeated repeatedly by Ukraine, Russian forces have found an easier opponent, one with corrupt leadership, incompetent commanders, and low morale.

Few if any are rooting for war criminal Prigozhin to replace war criminal Putin. But chaos is opportunity for change while the status quo is war and terror. It means fewer resources directed against Ukraine. Whatever the result in Russia, the regime will be weaker.

You cannot expect a liberal democracy to suddenly bloom in a dictatorship desert. It’s all rats, snakes, and scorpions. All you can hope for is opportunity for change where currently there is none. Leverage shifts, light gets in through cracks.

Russians have been fighting for nothing but the imperial delusions of a dictator and the monumental avarice of his mafia. Ukraine's bravery has exposed it all and it's literally and figuratively coming home. An interview: kyivpost.com/post/18662

Dictatorships are hard but brittle; one crack can shatter. Putin brutally repressed even our smallest opposition because he understood that any perception of weakness was fatal. His ability to hide the consequences of war from his elites is now over.

Putin's instincts are always to kill, including Russians. But will soldiers who fought in Ukraine and the amateur home guards obey and fire on Prigozhin's seasoned forces? The words of the generals who benefit from the mafia do not decide this.

My thread from when this first began last night. Now it has become clear the new reality is here, that quiet accommodation and restructuring to satisfy all factions is impossible.

https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1672361468602335238

There's no chain of command in Russia, no responsibility, and the media is waiting for orders that don't come. An armed convoy is en route to the capital and there's nothing but drivel because Putin knows violence will spread panic among a population he tells everything is fine.

As I just told Corriere de la Serra, the 1917 parallels are correct, but also a replica of Mussolini's march on Rome in 1922. It's not just a lost war, it's a long war going badly. Now soldiers from poor regions see the elites not fighting, living in luxury, on their mobile.