Thread by @MassDara

A thread about the Russian military and what to watch for in the days ahead. Developments are highly contingent, but there are a few big movements to look out for. /1

1: For Prigozhin’s insurrection against Shoigu/Gerasimov to succeed or expand, it will require support from elements of the Russian security services, National Guard, police, and military. These are individuals’ decisions and therefore difficult to predict. /2

2: Proof of military command and control: Prigozhin has threatened Shoigu and Gerasimov personally. To show that they are still in place and commanding the military/war, they will provide a visual. If one does not emerge in the next few days that’s telling that all is not ok./3

3: The Kremlin will want to show that they still command and have the loyalty of Russian forces in Ukraine. It's possible that it could show up as televised visits to the front or video reports from field commanders inside Ukraine. I’d think in the next few days./4

4: Since those strange videos of Surovikin and Alekseev and visual confirmation of Yunis-Bek Yevkurov, no one has seen (publicly)Shoigu, Gerasimov, deputy commanders and others. If nothing after days go by, could be a potential sign that something is off. /5

5: About Wagner's occupation of Rostov HQ. The military can reroute the command and control of the war back to MOD HQ in Moscow or another location. They have SVTCs and other secure communications for this /6

Wagner’s physical possession of Rostov HQ is not an operational deal-breaker for the war although rerouting the technicals is probably a pain. The status of key commanders, and who they command (or not) is more important. /7

6: The Russian National Guard is (on paper) 300,000 across Russia and made of different organizations. They have vehicles specific to it, like Tigrs, but also military vehicles like BMP/BTRs and some helicopters (Mi-8/Mi-26). No fixed wing aviation. /8

5) Defending Moscow against a coup or popular protest the number 1 priority of the National Guard and security services. However-- defending against armored vehicles isn’t a major part of their training focus or toolkit/9

Rosgvardia/police/OMON/SOBR are equipped for crowd suppression and they’ve got specific tools for that. They are already moving into positions in Moscow. /10

6) Watch for localized declarations of martial law in Moscow or other cities or regions of instability. They’ve declared an “anti-terrorist operation” in Moscow which gives them authorities to engage Wagner and detain citizens. /11

Further, the Moscow mayor declared a “holiday” on Monday so everyone except a few groups stays home and out of the way /12 themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/24/liv…

7) Individuals may be making choices in the days ahead about who they support as days unfold – in Moscow, on the frontline in Ukraine and in the halls of power. Outcomes not easy to predict because of that. /13

8) The government will be looking for signs of popular and internal support of Wagner’s efforts and looking to suppress that. So far people are passively observing/interacting with Wagner in Rostov and in other areas, in these early hours /14

9) Be prepared for rumors to start emerging that various key figures or officials have fled Russia, been captured, or even killed. Remember that first reports are often wrong /15

10) Be prepared that rumors of Russian mass desertions or defections on the front lines are likely to increase too. There are a lot of incentives for disinformation here, and also a lot of factors why it could be true. /16

my area of focus here is Russian military and its leadership during a crisis like this. For Wagner/Prigozhin experts, follow @CandaceRondeaux and @KimberlyMarten /17

Putin's speech talking about betrayal and reminding everyone to remain loyal is serious speech and serious moment. I have concerns about the mounting pressures internally and on the Russian frontlines – a topic for the next thread. /end