Thread by @MaloneySuzanne

On @BrookingsInst Twitter Space, @AngelaStent tells @sbg1 that Nothing in Russia is ever what it appears to be...this is clearly just the opening act of something that's going to play itself out over the next weeks and months...

@AngelaStent: Wagner itself has been the most important way in which Russia has projected power...it's a very important arm of Russian foreign policy. It's not going to go away.

@AngelaStent .@MichaelEOHanlon: this may marginally weaken the current Russian position in Ukraine...certain parts of the line may be a little bit weaker than before...but I don't expect much change...unlikely to have any immediate affects on the battlefield.

@AngelaStent @MichaelEOHanlon .@sbg: this is almost a textbook definition of a country whose leadership is weak or uncertain, if you lose that monopoly on the use of force.

@AngelaStent @MichaelEOHanlon @sbg .@ConStelz: this highlights the essential mafia-ness of Russian government power at this point. This only begins to make sense if you look at it as Goodfellas in Moscow.

@AngelaStent @MichaelEOHanlon @sbg @ConStelz .@ConStelz : all of this has made the upcoming NATO summit in Vilinius on July 11-12 a lot more interesting and has made the question of Ukraine's future membership in NATO a lot more pressing

@AngelaStent @MichaelEOHanlon @sbg @ConStelz @AngelaStent: Prigozhin was able to resonate w/significant numbers of Russians... he has told the Russian ppl that your sons & brothers are being killed in this senseless war in Ukraine & yet the children of the elite are all sunning themselves on beaches in the south of France.

@AngelaStent @MichaelEOHanlon @sbg @ConStelz .@AngelaStent: Putin has to realize that questioning re the war & what the elite has done to the population is definitely there in Russia. What we saw yesterday...would suggest that he's really quite uncertain about how to deal w/this.

@AngelaStent @MichaelEOHanlon @sbg @ConStelz .@AngelaStent: This is the most significant challenge to Putin's rule since he came to power...you may see more repression in Russia....you won't see a change in the order of battle in Ukraine, the Russians might double down.

@AngelaStent @MichaelEOHanlon @sbg @ConStelz .@MichaelEOHanlon: by raising the specter of collapse & 1917, by appealing to Russian nationalism, by talking about the threat from NATO & the West, Putin has reverted to the kind of themes that have so far kept him going...skeptical that he'll turn on the Shoigu & Gerasimov

@AngelaStent @MichaelEOHanlon @sbg @ConStelz .@ConStelz: There'll be misinformation & malicious actors who seek to portray that somehow Putin is playing 5-D chess here....and that we need to offer him "off-ramps."

@AngelaStent @MichaelEOHanlon @sbg @ConStelz .@angelastent in response to a Q from @ishaantharoor: what I think we need to watch going forward is whether this is over now and whether the Kremlin learns any lessons. I would be very dubious… we could see more of this.

@AngelaStent @MichaelEOHanlon @sbg @ConStelz @ishaantharoor .@MichaelEOHanlon: most times in big wars when dissent emerges, it takes a while for that to translate into a change in policy. Warns against UKR overconfidence. All they can really keep doing is slogging away and seeing where they can find points of weakness.

@AngelaStent @MichaelEOHanlon @sbg @ConStelz @ishaantharoor .@MichaelEOHanlon offers sobering take on UKR counteroffensive. Best hope is to cut RU position in 2. Even that’s going to be hard. Keep slogging away, punching away...I’d like to be wrong but don’t see prospect of UKR retaking more than small % of its territory before end 2023.

.@ConStelz describes trans-Atlantic relationship as an "axis of prudence" but notes differences w/in NATO. Nordics want clear, short & specific path for UKR NATO membership; US, UK, FR, GE see this as unrealistic & we shld give UKR clear package of security guarantees

.@AngelaStent: Putin has vry successfully intimidated the west into thinking that you have to be very careful of supplying weapons to UKR for fear of precipitating the use of nuclear weapons. Turmoil could be interpreted to support or contradict that.

.@angelastent: You cld say the emperor has no clothes, this is the beginning of the beginning of the end & we shouldn’t be intimidated from supporting UKR. Alternately, if there really are power struggles & not clear who would have control over nukes, that might prompt restraint.

.@AngelaStent: Don’t think it’s accurate to say the regime could collapse soon but as longtime student of Russia, things are stable in Russia until they’re not. You could wake up tomorrow & sth completely different could happen. Have to be humble about how much you can predict.

.@AngelaStent : I doubt that this is a public breakup betw Putin & Prigozhin. Prigozhin owes his career to Putin…Putin allowed his criticisms to go unquashed for last weeks & months, this is typical Putin MO – let inner circle fight while you control the strings.

.@angelastent: Possible that Prigozhin has crossed a line but I don’t believe that this is necessarily a break btw them… I’m sure that the Wagner Org as such is not going to collapse. I’m waiting to see whether Prigozhin actually shows up in Belarus and what he does there.

In fine @BrookingsFP tradition, there are a variety of views on this point. @MichaelEOHanlon argues that Prigozhin's days are numbered & his influence waning, even if Wagner remains an important arm of the Russian state.

@BrookingsFP @MichaelEOHanlon .@sbg1 asks what to watch in days ahead? @ConStelz keeping a close eye on how the NATO summit plays out & how Russia's relationship w/its neighbors evolves.

.@AngelaStent will be watching are there changes at the top of Russian mindef, what that means about Prigozhin’s influence & impract on the conduct of the war. Also watching Lukashenko's surprising role & whether there is an even tougher internal crackdown in Russia.

@AngelaStent .@MichaelEOHanlon watching fate of Gerasimov, Shoigu & Prigozhin; battlefield dynamics & any new weaknesses apparent. Also NATO summit, where he warns against an 'axis of excessive incrementalism.' Challenges Biden administration to think big about the future of Europe. /END