On @BrookingsInst Twitter Space, @AngelaStent tells @sbg1 that Nothing in Russia is ever what it appears to be...this is clearly just the opening act of something that's going to play itself out over the next weeks and months... @AngelaStent: Wagner itself has been the most important way in which Russia has projected power...it's a very important arm of Russian foreign policy. It's not going to go away.

If you're in the mood for deeper dives & more context on what's happened over the past few days in the Middle East, let me build on my other thread (here: bit.ly/2ZRo9gM) with a look back on some of @BrookingsInst's most relevant research, writing & convenings: Last year, experts from across @BrookingsInst offered perspectives on the 40th anniversary of the Iranian revolution: brookings.edu/series/irans-r…

The project morphed into a book that will be published next month by @BrookingsPress: brookings.edu/book/the-irani…

I wanted to take the opportunity to highlight all the work that the @BrookingsInst scholars have published on Iraq, Iran & broader implications over the past few days, plus a few greatest hits from the past & at least one forthcoming. So here goes a long promo thread: For @PostOutlook I tried analyze how Iran might react. washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/0…

Wanted to say sincere thanks for generosity here from people I hugely respect incl @RNicholasBurns @SafiraLeaf @tcwittes @leloveluck @dandrezner @McFaul @korischake @rmslim @IvoHDaalder

Short thread on domestic political implications of Soleimani strike:

1) Trump's base loves a successful hit-job vs a bad guy & they don't care (nor perhaps does he) if the Middle East goes up in flames as a result. It's totally on brand Trump =>faux toughness+opposite of Obama 2) For 2020 campaign, Trump doesn't need a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East. The region can remain in turmoil. His base doesn't care. (Neither tbh do most Americans of any political stripe.) He can tout Soleimani strike, Jerusalem embassy move etc as his 'achievements.'

My Twitter feed is overflowing w/insistence these threats are bogus. But many who are so certain in their skepticism today are among the same who've warned that Trump's decision to withdraw from the JCPOA could provoke Iranian retaliation.

https://twitter.com/barbarastarrcnn/status/1125431991384641537

None of us operating solely on the basis of open source info can assert authoritatively whether the specific precipitants for heightened concern re: Iran cited today by the Trump administration are real or hyped or some combination thereof.

Pompeo has not outlined a strategy, but rather a grab bag of wishful thinking that can only be interpreted as a call for regime change in Iran. The speech suggests that the administration believes it can extract maximalist concessions by applying unilaterally & over the objection of our allies & partners the same tools that were deployed w/wide international support during the final years of the nuclear crisis.

On my feed (and in my household), there has been fierce debate around this question of what, if anything, the USG should say in response to turmoil in Iran. I come down somewhere in the middle... With all due respect to the many heroic human rights defenders who want US politicians to offer full-throated moral support & encouragement to protestors, I’m deeply cynical about the prospects for Washington to shape dynamics on the ground in a positive fashion