Read on Twitter
Although it appears quiet in Russia today, things are not back to 'normal.' The coming days or weeks will tell more. Until then, its wise to consider that “nothing is true and everything is possible” – even the things we see. A few reflections for today: 
48 hours in, Shoigu & Gerasimov are publicly radio silent, even to Russian milbloggers. Unusual, given the threat against them specifically. Are they secure in their jobs? all that matters is what Putin decides for them. /2
They could emerge anytime (once the danger has passed). I think Gerasimov's position is weaker than Shoigu's. Regardless of when they emerge and how, their silence will be remembered and they could look even weaker. /3
Alekseev and Surovikin were the public faces of the appeal to Prigozhin. Their videos looked coerced. While Alekseev emerged the next day, their ultimate status remains unclear. /4
Hard to say what will happen to other senior officers . Milbloggers reporting that the chain of command continued out of Rostov for Ukraine. /5
No signs of major disruptions/desertions/mutinies in Ukraine so far. Soldiers in Ukraine with cell phones and coverage could follow along. Watching for future ripples /6
The Kremlin should be worried that Wagner columns were waved through – on the ground at least- by multiple authorities and openly received by the people in Rostov. That's passive popular support though, and we never saw what would happen if there was armed confrontation. /6
Watching the public reaction to Wagner's presence, and the heckling of the police that followed (in Rostov), I think there is something that bubbled up that's worth following. Not antiwar per se; but it did seem like an expression against the authorities. /7
I don’t take Peskov’s statement of the “negotiated terms” for Prigozhin at face value. Anything is possible. Armed insurrection is not a "water under the bridge" situation. Not how the authorities were acting, anyway. There isn't much clarity yet. /8
In days/weeks ahead, worth paying attention to public clarifications of the National Guard, intel, military command chains. Arrests are also in realm of possibility, or, some people could simply not be seen again. I don't think this is over. Much has changed. /x
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
