Thread by @DAlperovitch

My thoughts on the implications of Prigozhin's mutiny this weekend: 🧵

First, what have we learned from this?

1. That a hostile armed column of about 5,000 troops can just drive across Russia for hours to within 200km of Moscow and no one in the MoD, Rosgvardia, MVD or FSB seems capable or willing to stop them.

(Ukraine take note)

2. That another armed column of a few thousand troops (some of them former convicts!) can just drive into a major Russian city of a million people and take it over without firing a shot, including a major military command center and an airbase

3. That the Russian Air Force is incapable of achieving air superiority even over a small part of a highway in Russia against a small group of mercenaries armed with Pantsir air defenses and no air force of their own

4. That Lukashenko is much braver than Putin and is more capable of acting decisively to preserve his hold on power, something that Putin seems to have little ability to do

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1673034948561780742

5. That during an armed mutiny in Russia, its Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov can't be expected to show up anywhere and lead (they are still MIA today). Its top generals—Dep Defense Minister Evkurov and Dep GRU Aleskeev would cower before the mutineer

6. That loyalty to Putin does not run deep. In the crucial 13 hours before Putin's speech, few came out in support of him. No governors, no Duma members, not even his national security council. Only 2 generals Surovikin and Alekseev recorded 'hostage videos' urging Wagner to stop

And what do we know about the situation now?

1. This episode is far from over. Wagner and Prigozhin did not surrender. They withdrew in an orderly fashion, with all of their equipment and forces in tact (with the support of cheering and hugging crowds)

2. For about 24 hours, Wagner became a banned organization in Russia. Their online presence was blacklisted, offices raided, recruitment posters taken down, online merchandise sales blocked... And now, everything seems to be forgiven and many of the bans completely reversed

2. I do not, for one second, believe anything that comes out of Dmitry Peskov's mouth (a notorious liar and one who is literally never in the loop on anything) and so far he is the only source of the comments about Moscow's deal with Prigozhin

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1672832502166179840?s=20

3. Putin is not acting like a person who is capable of swiftly reasserting his power and cracking down on anyone who had sided against him or simply had chosen to step aside and pretend like nothing was happening

4. Prigozhin's name recognition is now one of the highest in Russia. He had challenged the Kremlin and (so far) has gotten away with it. If he survives, he may have created a significant political base for himself in Russian politics - one that did not exist prior to this weekend

What does all this mean for the future?

I think Putin has demonstrated exceptional weakness and limited control over the levers of power in Russia. He has also so far not shown that he is capable of reasserting that control. He could still do so but the clock is ticking and chaos might erupt if he doesn't

In a brutal authoritarian system, displays of such weakness are dangerous. It's not that someone might decide to make a move on Putin tomorrow but that his propensity to avoid making tough decisions is likely to cause various actors within the Russian system to start ignoring him

Putin is in real danger of becoming irrelevant as various clans across the system (security services, governors, etc) might follow in Prigozhin's footsteps and start to take actions and pursue their interests without coordination or approval from the Kremlin

After all, if Prigozhin can get away with mutiny to keep operating his Wagner PMC company, why shouldn't they do what they like as well?

Season 2 is likely to be as interesting as the first. I will have more on my @GeopolDecanted podcast later today

END

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1672796671476989952?s=20