ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
Jun 26 8 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1/ I think Prigozhin actually has a decent point here. There are several things that set Wagner aside from the regular army, and arguably make it more effective:
2/ Decision-making in Wagner appears to be much quicker, in contrast to the more hidebound and complex army command structures (and the generally poor quality of the commanders).
3/ The army is *massively* corrupt (look out for a thread on this soon) and this hinders everything it does. For all its faults, Wagner seems to be more efficient - possibly because of its drastic approach to discipline.
4/ Morale in the army is demonstrably low because of the way commanders abuse their subordinates and send them to be slaughtered. Wagner seems to be more careful of its volunteers' lives, even though it's burned through convict soldiers at a very high pace.
5/ Relatedly, many of those volunteers are themselves ex-military - often men who have been kicked out of the army for disciplinary reasons. Their contempt for the army is genuine and personal. I can't see them integrating well.
6/ Wagner's terms and conditions for its fighters are a lot better than the Russian MOD's. It pays more, and contracts are 6 months at a time. In contrast, the army has imposed indefinite contracts on its soldiers, lasting until the war's end.
7/ Wagner seems to have been a lot more effective than the army in provisioning its men. I've never seen any reports of Wagnerites complaining about antiquated weapons or being starved of food and water.
8/ In conclusion, if Wagner really is integrated with the army and on the same terms as regular soldiers, I think it's going to cause a lot of friction and disappointment as all the "good" things about Wagner - from its fighters' perspective - fall away. /end

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Jun 28
1/ Russian sources reportedly say that Sergei Shoigu's plan to defang the Wagner Group failed because he didn't anticipate Yevgeny Prigozhin's personal popularity. Prigozhin had prior knowledge of the moves being made against him, leading to his strike against Rostov-on-Don.
2/ Shoigu is nonetheless said to be unsackable due to knowing too many secrets and having too extensive a network of loyalists to be easily uprooted. Meanwhile, Putin is said to have been in complete confusion and reportedly put the FSB in charge during the mutiny. ⬇️
3/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that a source has told it about what happened on the Russian government side immediately before Wagner's mutiny:

"The harbinger of a coup in Russia is always a strengthening of the protection of state institutions.
Read 27 tweets
Jun 27
1/ A serving FSB officer and two lightly armed furries were among supporters of the Wagner Group who went out with their own weapons on the streets of Moscow on 24 June. All three were arrested before they could join the Wagnerites. ⬇️

2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that Andrei D., a former paratrooper and serving FSB officer, was arrested at Kuznetsky Most metro station in central Moscow on suspicion of supporting the Wagner Group. He was armed with his personal TR9 Paradox hunting carbine.
3/ The 26-year-old was spotted carrying his weapon on the metro and was reported to the police by a Moscow Metro security officer. A social media photo shows him posing with his weapon and a Wagner badge sewn onto his left sleeve.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 27
1/ Another open-air dungeon used by the Russian army to imprison its own soldiers has been exposed in the occupied Donetsk region. According to a commander, "every unit has one." Although they're illegal, he says "nobody gives a shit, statutes and laws don't apply here." ⬇️
3/ ASTRA has interviewed a Russian commander who is opposed to the use of zindans and has apparently filmed one in the village of Olenivka, south of Donetsk city. He says the zindan is being used to imprison those found guilty of petty offences.
4/ "[They get] a minimum three days of imprisonment and a fine: 25-30 thousand rubles for every day of imprisonment [$293-352]. They use it mainly for drunkenness, for leaving their positions and going to the shops, to the countryside, to visit neighbouring positions.
Read 14 tweets
Jun 27
1/ An ongoing corruption scandal over the construction in 2014 of Russia's National Defence Control Centre appears to have reached the senior leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defence. Deputy Defence Minister Ruslan Tsalikov has reportedly been questioned by investigators. ⬇️
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that according to a source, Tsalikov was detained and questioned on 26 June 2023 over new allegations of embezzlement of funds during the 40 billion ruble ($500m) construction of the NDCC in Moscow.
4/ Major military projects are a magnet for corruption in Russia, due to a lack of transparency and the systemic nature of graft among officials and contractors. Tsalikov in particular has been the focus of suspicions for a long time.
Read 8 tweets
Jun 26
1/ A retired Russian tank battalion commander has given a frank interview about the rampant corruption that he says has led to the "complete collapse of the Russian army" in the last 16 years. His comments highlight how the army has rotted from within during the Putin era. ⬇️
3/ Rozhkov, a St. Petersburger, served for 15 years and resigned from the army at the age of 36 shortly before the Ukraine war begin. He says he decided that he did not want to "degrade further in this system" and has since been avoiding mobilisation orders.
4/ Rozkhov blames many of the problems on the military reforms begun in the 2000s under then-Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov. At that time, the mandatory length of service for conscripts was reduced from two years to one year. According to Rozhkov, this was disastrous.
Read 49 tweets
Jun 26
1/ The Russian authorities appear to be regretting recently passing a law that makes criticism of the Wagner Group a criminal offence. Thousands of Russians, likely including Vladimir Putin himself, are now theoretically subject to criminal charges attracting years in jail. ⬇️
3/ Speaker of the Russian Parliament Vyacheslav Volodin introduced new legislation to allow prosecutions for "fakes" and "discrediting" "volunteer formations, organizations or persons assisting in the performance of tasks assigned to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation".
4/ It increased punishments from three to five years' imprisonment for "fake information" and from five to seven years for "discrediting". The offences are increased to "medium gravity" (roughly equivalent to an upgrade from a misdemenour to a felony).
Read 6 tweets

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