Thread by @LivFaustDieJung

The US has been the first nation to provide lethal aid and was responsible (alongside Britain who was a quick second) for the shuttle diplomacy that turned almost every NATO capital into an overnight arms donor.

And has provided HALF of the war aid. I've said it many times, it

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1673386761978781705

is definitely not a competition so I don't raise numbers or who did what first for points. I raise it because "yeah but France promised a few dozen AFVs before America" is a brain dead point.

Prior to the provision of Western tanks, which IS significant not because the vehicles

matter (20+ Bradley's lost and knows how many Leopards etc etc are a testament that AT weapons will kill every vehicle), it's significant because it signals a will to keep supplying once Soviet era stockpiles are gone.

But... The only way Ukraine survived & then thrived was via

the MASSIVE Herculean efforts to supply aid. I certainly wish some items (but not western armor) were supplied sooner, but Ukraine never gets to this point without the massive airlifts, boats & trains full of Soviet ammo & artillery, plus fuel & logistics, small arms ammo,

& everything else received before Russia was stopped and ejected from Kyiv.

Ukraine never gets to this point without dozens of HIMARS (et al) and hundreds of thousands of missiles, or hundreds of artillery pieces and 100s of 1000s of shells to keep Russia from advancing much

further in Donbas.

Ukraine never gets to a stage where it can launch a counteroffensive without the thousands of vehicles & western training, and provision of hundreds of T-72s and BMPs

Ukraine reaches the point where they have breathing room to send THOUSANDS of their fighters

out of combat to spend MONTHS training on hundreds of new western vehicles& systems PRECISELY because so much time was spent sending the most basic needs possible that set the conditions for each successive Ukrainian victory. The obsession over individual pieces of gear is myopic

and screams of a Wikipedia level understanding of BOTH the weapons & how a country wide war is fought.

It misses that it absolutely takes time, political capital, & LOTS OF CASH, to move forward. I ask this a lot because I think it's telling people's answers: at any given time

the US (and other nations) have a set dollar amount that can be sent (until more is authorized). So how many Bradley's and M1 Abrams do you think we could have sent for the same dollar value as literally theater altering HIMARS and missiles? Because it ISN'T both. It would be

one or the other, or far less of one.

How many Leopards and Marders should have been sent instead of 100s of artillery systems and 100s of 1000s of rounds. And how would you have effectively used them while on the defense under overwhelming Russian artillery fire?

How many

thousands of Ukrainian infantry shouldn't have been trained & equipped so you could send 10-15 F-16s that can't even approach Russian air defense?

It is right & just to ask our officials to send everything we can

But it is absolutely moronic to conjecture about how the generals

& capitals should prioritize war if you have no fucking clue how war is fought & are reduced to gesticulating wildly that Ukrainian official X said they want Y so irrespective of any other factors governing how the war is going, just do that. This is my gripe when academics (&

plenty of other pundits or even just observers) who DON'T have a good understanding of systems or how they're used, get on a soapbox to shit on whoever hasn't given them fast enough.

To be clear, everything i said about Ukraine being reliant on western aid delivery is not of

Ukrainian failure of magic western wunderwaffen. It's entirely because they were invaded by a MASSIVELY more heavily equipped opponent & they did not have anywhere enough equipment.

But perhaps observers should pause their sneering over who delivered what first& take an abstract

Look at what's actually required, when it's actually required, & what's the opportunity costs if that is supplied & something else is not

The checkbook's not unlimited. Leaders are limited by what their legislature&populace will allow. And strategic considerations outweigh feels

I know this was dreadfully long & fairly dry, if you stuck with it to this point, God bless you.

I dunno uh @AbraxasSpa @alexgarcialonso @BrynnTannehill @BA_Friedman @RALee85 @MarkHertling @mexic0la_ @faysalitani @historicfirearm @CovertShores @Havoc_Six @J_JHelin @HKaaman @DefMon3 @N_Waters89 @CalibreObscura @Nrg8000 @MAGTravF @MSchroeder77 @jabuttee @PortsideSully

@AbraxasSpa @alexgarcialonso @BrynnTannehill @BA_Friedman @RALee85 @MarkHertling @mexic0la_ @faysalitani @historicfirearm @CovertShores @Havoc_Six @J_JHelin @HKaaman @DefMon3 @N_Waters89 @CalibreObscura @Nrg8000 @MAGTravF @MSchroeder77 @jabuttee @PortsideSully As an addendum I don't want to downplay that there were several Euro nations who needed very little convincing and were quick to volunteer, especially the Baltic states. Poland played an especially important role here.

(I meant to say "hundreds or thousands")

@JustmeAnybody @fellarific The UK is sending 30ish Challengers. Which is AWESOME! But in the same time period the US is provising 150 Bradley's, 200ish Strykers, hundreds and hundreds of HMMWVs and MRAPs which are many many many times more important than 30 tanks.

@JustmeAnybody @fellarific And to add to that, it's on top of the US doing that for the entire war.

The UK is a smaller country with a much smaller military. I'm not dinging them. But "we did it first" is a pointless metric.

One final thought: of course the Ukr air force asks for F-16s. They SHOULD ask for F-16s. They should ask for the moon. Because defending the skies is their job.

But if sending F-16s means not sending more tanks/IFVs, the guys doing the bulk of the fighting should be listened to

and they're the ones asking for tanks and IFVs, not F-16s. There are competing priorities in any military and every war.

Some things get cut so others can be sent.

Y'all if you're itching to yell at me and aren't going to read to the end at least read this tweet before you tell me I ignored something.

@PsycoPathCZ I'm incredibly thankful that former Warsaw nations were among the very first to deliver heavy weaponry and no part of me shits on T-72s or 122/152 ammunition. Both incredibly important. You're missing the point.