Stephan Jensen Profile picture
Jun 27, 2023 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Once you scratch the surface of the Taliban's propaganda, there is nothing at all "traditional" or "national" about their movement.

The Taliban is an utterly modern movement, mostly based on 20th-century political ideas and foreign religious teachings.

1/11
The political idea that a group of mullahs should control government has no traditional precedent in Afghanistan - or anywhere in the Islamic world.

It is a riff on radical Islamism. a 20th-century *political* ideology brought to Afghanistan by academics in the 1960s.

2/11
Democracy, even in its modern form, has far deeper roots in Afghanistan than the Taliban's theocratic system: a form of government introduced for the first time ever in the 1990s.

The political "traditions" the Taliban claim to represent are barely two decades old.

3/11
The Afghan Republic's democratic system of government was a continuation of the country's constitutional monarchy in the 1960s.

Further back, it built on long-standing, traditional, ideas about popular sovereignty.

Democracy was the "traditional" choice, not theocracy.

4/11
Religiously, too, the Taliban's claims to represent "tradition" are weak at best.

Their extreme puritanism draws on "Deobandi" Islam, which appeared in India the late 19th century, inspired by 18th century Saudi Wahabism.

It's neither traditional, nor from Afghanistan.

5/11
"Deobandi" Islam had never had a strong foothold in Afghanistan.

Albeit highly conservative, traditionally Afghan Islam tended to be far more tolerant, mystical, and oriented towards Sufism.

This only changed during the 1980s, after the War in Afghanistan had begun.

6/11
The biggest driver of change was the huge influx of Afghan refugees into Pakistan during the 1980s, where thousands of Saudi-funded Deobandi madrassas were set up around the refugee camps.

The roots of the Taliban's religion are not Afghan villages but foreign madrassas.

7/11
The hundreds of thousands of young boys attending these madrassas became steeped in the extremist religious thinking that came to define the Taliban, and became the core of its soldiers in the 1990s.

They craved "tradition" precisely because they didn't have any.

8/11
The tragic irony is that the Taliban - a movement as old as the Spice Girls, inspired by 19th century religious ideas from India and 20th century political ideas from Egypt - has been very successful at passing itself of as the standard bearers of "traditional Afghanistan".

9/11
The fact that so many in the West believed the Taliban's propaganda, and idiotically accepted them as a "traditional" and "nationalist" resistance against a supposedly foreign-imposed attempt to "modernise" Afghanistan against its will is a big part of why they won.

10/11
Nevertheless, it remains a lie. Despite its many flaws, the Afghan Republic was far more true to Afghanistan's political and religious traditions than the utterly modern Taliban movement can ever be in its current form.

11/11

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More from @StephanAJensen

Sep 27, 2023
🇦🇫 THREAD:

The people arguing for abandoning Afghanistan forget that we tried this thirty years ago...

...with disastrous consequences - both for Afghanistan and the rest of the world.

9/11 was just one of the results of pretending Afghanistan didn't exist in the 1990s.

1/🧵


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2001 was not the first time in modern history that the US + allies got involved militarily in Afghanistan.

Albeit at arm's length, the West and others heavily backed the Mujahideen guerillas fighting the Afghan communist government and their Soviet allies in the 1980s.

2/🧵 Image
That struggle against the communists in Afghanistan was successful.

The last great proxy conflict of the cold war - it even contributed to the fall of the Soviet Union itself.

But at a tremendous cost - after defeating the communists, Afghanistan was utterly broken.

3/🧵
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Read 17 tweets
Sep 26, 2023
🇦🇫 THREAD:
Afghanistan was not destroyed by post-9/11 war, or even (first and foremost) by civil war in the 1990s.

Afghanistan was destroyed by the Soviet intervention of the 1980s.

More Afghans died *every year* from 1979-89 than in all the 20 years after 2001 *combined.*

1/4 Image
In 1979 Afghanistan's population was about 14 million people. By 1989:

- ca. 1.5 million had died
- ca. 1.5 million had become invalid
- ca. 5 million people had become refugees.

In total, that's 50% of Afghanistan's pre-war population.

2/4


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More civilians died in Afghanistan from 1979-89 than in the UK, France, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, and Finland *combined* during World War 2.

Those countries had a population of ca. 150 million people in 1940 - more than ten times Afghanistan in 1979.

3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 26, 2023
One of the most tragic aspects of the West's disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan is how "well-meaning" Western progressives thought our disengagement would be the solution to all of Afghanistan's problems.

Instead, it handed Afghanistan to the Taliban.

1/8 Image
By peddling narcissistic arguments that all of Afghanistan's problems had to do with Western involvement, the "anti-war" lobby gave credence to the most ethically and strategically irresponsible policy possible:

Legitimizing the Taliban and betraying our allies.

2/8 Image
Now, the very same "anti-war" narcissists are making the very same arguments about Ukraine:

"If only we stop supporting the people defending their country and legitimate the claims of the terrorist aggressors everything will be fine."

It's as mad as it sounds.

3/8
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Read 8 tweets
Aug 1, 2023
THREAD:

Trump might win in 2024.

That means Europe must start preparing *now* if we want to avoid disaster in Ukraine and war in 🇪🇺

By 2024 we must be able to:

- Continue supplying Ukraine on our own

- Deter Russia from further aggression with or without the US in NATO

1/🧵
We dont know if Trump will win, but he is currently the most likely person to be the Republican nominee.

And Biden is weak electorally. All things considered, I'd give it a 30% chance at this point.

Thats a lot, because the consequences could be extremely distruptive.

2/🧵
What would the return of Trump mean for Europe?

Two huge things:

a) Trump is ultra-sceptical about aid to Ukraine, and loves Putin. He may *want* Putin to win.

b) Trump is ultra-sceptical about NATO. Even if the US stays in the alliance, article 5 will be under question.

3/🧵 Image
Read 20 tweets
Jul 23, 2023
🇦🇫 THREAD:
I keep hearing nonsense about the Afghan forces not being willing to fight.

It's a disgusting lie.

We took out almost all our troops in 2014 - since then the Afghans fought like hell.

But in 2021, we left them without ammunition, food, water, and air support.

1/🧵 Image
People keep forgetting that the West pulled out almost all of its troops in 2013-14. NOT in 2021.

And after that, the Afghans did almost all the fighting.

The remaining Western presence was mainly advisors, logistics, and air support.

2/🧵 Image
From 2014-2021, the War in Afghanistan was fought with Western money, supplies, and air support - but with Afghan blood, sweat, and tears.

The Afghan sacrifices were staggering.

During that period, 127 coalition troops lost their lives - compared to 50.000 Afghan troops.

3/🧵 Image
Read 19 tweets
Jul 17, 2023
THREAD:

#OTD Exactly 50 years ago, Mohammed Daoud ousted his cousin King Zahir Shah, took power in Afghanistan, and declared it a Republic - first opening the door to more than 40 years of violence and war in Afghanistan.

Nevertheless, his legacy remains a complex one.

1/🧵 Image
To be clear, the War in Afghanistan did not start with Daoud's reign as president - but with the end of it.

He was killed in 1978 with his whole family when Soviet-backed Afghan communists mounted a coup of their own.

But the seeds for that too were sown by Daoud himself.

2/🧵 Image
1973 was not the first time Daoud held power in Afghanistan. From 1953 to 1963, he had been prime minister under King Zahir Shah.

"The decade of Daoud" as it has later been called, was a period of rapid economic development, as well as social progress. For good reasons.

3/🧵 Image
Read 18 tweets

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