Nick Gerli Profile picture
Jun 27, 2023 13 tweets 4 min read Read on X
The Airbnb collapse is real.

Revenues are down nearly 50% in cities like Phoenix and Austin.

Watch out for a wave of forced selling from Airbnb owners later this year in the areas hit hardest by the revenue collapse.
1) What's scary for the US Housing Market is just how many Airbnbs there are.

Data from AllTheRooms shows 1 million Airbnb / VRBO rentals.

Compared to only 570k homes for sale.

Creates huge home price downside if struggling Airbnb owners elect to sell.
2) Ground zero for this Airbnb collapse is a city like PHOENIX.

Where the number of short-term rentals (18k) is more than DOUBLE the number of for sale listings (8k).

Mix the huge Airbnb supply with revenues down -50% and you get a cocktail for massive forced selling.
3) Another area with huge exposure is Eastern Tennessee.

Particularly a vacation town called Sevierville in the Smokey Mountains.

In this county there's 10x as many Airbnbs as homes listed for sale. While the revenue per owner is down nearly 50%.

Yikes.
4) Another area to watch out for is Central Texas.

Data from AllTheRooms shows that Airbnb revenues are down 40-50% yoy across most of the area.

Particularly in Austin, San Antonio, Uvalde.
5) Another area that is getting smoked by the Airbnb Crash is the Pacific Northwest / Mountain Region.

States like Montana, Idaho, and Oregon.

Fewer people playing out their Yellowstone fantasies + way more supply = 40% declines in revenue per listing.
6) And ultimately this Airbnb crash was to be expected.

The pandemic is over. Fewer people are working from home / vacationing in states like Montana, Texas, and Tennessee.

So the demand is way down. Just as the Airbnb supply went way up. So you get a crash.
7) What will be interesting is how "stubborn" Airbnb owners are in holding their properties.

Many of them are just now seeing their revenues down 50%.

But the mainstream narrative hasn't caught up to it yet. So owners might not realize the Airbnb crash is a broader trend.
8) Some Airbnb owners might elect to do a long-term rental in their properties instead.

But the problem with that is that there has already been a huge surge in long-term rentals hitting the market.

With vacant rentals in cities like Nashville exploding over the last year.
9) So if Airbnb owners "pivot" to long-term rentals, they'll likely crash that market as well.

Especially in dense urban areas. Which is where the majority of Airbnbs are located.

Check out the Airbnb heatmap in a metro like Phoenix to see areas with most exposure.
10) I think "newbie" Airbnb owners who bought over the last 1-2 years with a mortgage are in trouble.

They got in at a high price. And have a high monthly payment. And little margin for error.

They could be some of the first to sell later in 2023 when the season ends.
11) However, some of the more seasoned Airbnb operators who got in before the pandemic likely have room to work with.

They paid less for their Airbnb. Have a cheaper mortgage rate. And more experience.

They will be less inclined to sell.
12) I'll have more content and data on the Airbnb crash in coming weeks.

The data used in this Tweet thread came from AllTheRooms. They're a short-term rental data provider who tracks Airbnb supply, rates, and revenue for every market in the country.

alltherooms.com

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More from @nickgerli1

Aug 29
We literally have the worst homebuyer demand on record according to the NAR's pending sales index.

Time for people to wake up and realize prices are the problem. Image
1) Fed cut rates almost one year ago, and demand went down.

Think about that. September 2024 was the first rate cut, and the pending sales index back then was between 76-79.

Now it's 72.

Buyer demand dropped after rate cuts. Image
2) Not only that, though.

Since the Fed cut rates, we have 30% more inventory sitting on the market, and home values are now dropping in about half the U.S.

So rate cuts + way more inventory + prices dropping...and still no buyer demand improvement.
Read 11 tweets
Aug 26
Austin, TX's rental market has corrected hard.

Asking rents are down 18% in the last three years.

And now, rents are almost back to pre-pandemic levels.

Apartment developers in Austin are taking it on the chin after overbuilding in this market for the last 5 years.

The good news? Austin is now one of the most affordable markets in America to rent, relative to local incomes.Image
1) It's wild to see how rents in Austin have changed over the last six years.

July 2019: $1,279/month
July 2022: $1,631/month
July 2025: $1,344/month

28% boom.

18% correction.

And now rents are only 5% above the pre-pandemic norm.
2) The reason rents are dropping is due to a big surge in vacancies.

During the peak of the pandemic, only 4.0% of Austin's apartment stock was vacant according to Apartmentlist.

Today, it's 10.0% vacancy. Image
Read 9 tweets
Aug 23
The immigration boom from 2022 to 2024 is hiding a startling fact:

U.S. natural population growth has plummeted.

With growth from Births minus Deaths clocking in at only 502k in 2024.

That's down about 70% from the mid-2000s. Image
1) Plummeting natural growth can have a variety of consequences for the U.S., and is primarily driven by two factors:

Increased deaths, due to the aging of the population

Stagnant births, also due to aging, and due to lifestyle choices of younger generations
2) A particularly interesting (and perhaps alarming) statistic is that only 15.6% of U.S. population growth came from natural means the last 4 years. Image
Read 12 tweets
Aug 19
Historical cost of Buying v Renting.

This explains everything about the current housing market. Image
1) Today's premium to buy of $713/month is one of the highest on record, and a key reason why homebuyer demand is near record lows.

First-time buyers are doing the simple math, and deciding to stay renting, since it saves them money in the short-term.
2) Especially when you consider how overvalued home prices are today.

Not only is it more expensive to own on a per month basis - it looks like a bad long-term investment given how expensive the prices have become.
Read 13 tweets
Aug 18
For the first time ever, it is considerably cheaper to buy a new house than to buy an existing house.

Likely signals an inflection point in the housing market. Image
1) In June 2025, it was roughly 8% or $33,500 cheaper to buy a new house from a builder than to buy an existing house.

This is only the 6th time in the last 26 years it has ever been cheaper to buy a new house.
2) The other months where this happened were:

Nov 2024 (1.7% cheaper)
Aug 2024 (2.0% cheaper)
Jun 2024 (3.0% cheaper)
May 2024 (0.7% cheaper)
June 2021 (0.5% cheaper)
June 2005 (1.4% cheaper)
Read 14 tweets
Aug 14
Immigration has dropped to essentially zero.

What will the housing market impact on demand be? Image
1) According to John Burns, from 2022-24, all of the growth in renter households came from immigration.

While only 5% of buyer demand came from immigration. Image
2) Suggesting there could be some headwinds for the rental market as the precipitous drop-off in immigration filters through to apartment demand.

However, to date in 2025, rental absorption has been strong.
Read 12 tweets

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