1/ A serving FSB officer and two lightly armed furries were among supporters of the Wagner Group who went out with their own weapons on the streets of Moscow on 24 June. All three were arrested before they could join the Wagnerites. ⬇️
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that Andrei D., a former paratrooper and serving FSB officer, was arrested at Kuznetsky Most metro station in central Moscow on suspicion of supporting the Wagner Group. He was armed with his personal TR9 Paradox hunting carbine.
3/ The 26-year-old was spotted carrying his weapon on the metro and was reported to the police by a Moscow Metro security officer. A social media photo shows him posing with his weapon and a Wagner badge sewn onto his left sleeve.
4/ The furries, 20-year-old Danila and 18-year-old Yegor, were spotted carrying an ancient Mosin rifle on Chobotovskaya Ulitsa on the south-western outskirts of Moscow. The police were duly called and the pair were arrested.
5/ According to the Baza Telegram channel, Yegor "told the police he went out on the street in support of the Wagner PMC." They were taken to the nearest police station and an investigation was opened. /end
1/ According to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel yesterday, a source told it that Yevgeny Prigozhin "really is in St. Petersburg. He says he doesn't give a fuck..." This appears to have been confirmed today. (h/t @revishvilig) ⬇️
2/ VChK-OGPU adds that according to a source, "Prigozhin has been given until 1 July to close all his affairs in Russia and take his property. (This was part of the mutiny arrangements) From the 1st, searches and seizure of assets will begin."
3/ "Taking advantage of this opportunity, they are preparing in the near future to take out all available cash of the Wagner PMC to Africa and Belarus."
Prigozhin reportedly believes he's come out on top from the mutiny, despite his enforced exile. A VChK-OGPU source says:
1/ The bitter feud between Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov appears to have originated in Syria, as an interesting personal account by Prigozhin of the February 2018 Battle of Khasham illustrates. ⬇️
2/ The battle took place when Wagner attempted to seize a US-held oil refinery but was summarily wiped out by American air power. It's been discussed before by a Wagner soldier who was in the battle. Prigozhin explains what happened at higher levels.
3/ Prigozhin claims that the refinery was actually held by ISIS, with "Americans in their ranks" helping them. He says that there were periodic exchanges of fire between ISIS and Wagner, who were aiming to block the US/Kurdish advance into ISIS-held south-eastern Syria.
1/ Although General Sergey Surovikin's whereabouts are unknown following the Wagner mutiny, it's reportedly not true that he's in Lefortovo Prison or pre-trial detention. However, the general's case probably isn't helped by the claim that he's an honorary Wagner member. ⬇️
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that sources tell it that Surovikin is not in Lefortovo and that Moscow's courts, pre-detention centre and prisoner convoys have not had any unusual recent activity or "special arrestees".
3/ As for Surovikin's whereabouts, a VChK-OGPU source says: "All we can say with certainty is that Surovikin, and a group of people very close to him, have gone out of touch. For two days, everyone has been unavailable. Including people who have been with him for a long time.
1/ Mobilised Russians facing the Ukrainian counter-offensive say they were "abandoned like kittens" by their commanders, faced Ukrainian tanks and artillery with light weapons, little ammo and no counter-fire, took heavy casualties, and had no medical evacuations on hand. ⬇️
2/ The "Look out, news" Telegram channel has posted an audio recording of a Russian soldier from the 'Storm' detachment of the 34th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade. His unit is likely to have recently been redeployed to the Zaporizhzhia front from the left bank of the Dnipro.
3/ The men are likely to have been in the Lobkove-Piatykhatky area, where the Russians recently suffered a heavy defeat. The brigade has been badly mauled before during the fighting north of Kherson in 2022.
1/ A new opinion poll in Russia, conducted before the Wagner mutiny, shows nearly equal numbers of Russians wanting to continue the war or start peace negotiations. However, 64% support a fresh attack on Kyiv and 58% believe the war is going well. ⬇️
2/ Pollster Russian Field has conducted the twelfth of a series of telephone surveys of Russian public opinion on the war. It should be noted that such surveys experience a high rate of refusals to participate, not surprisingly given the risks of voicing opinions in Russia.
3/ Key findings from the poll, which was conducted between 16-19 June 2023:
🔺 45% of respondents supported the continuation of the war, while 44% wanted to see peace negotiations.
🔺 If Putin decided to attack Kyiv again, 64% would support it, 23% would not support it.
1/ Russian sources reportedly say that Sergei Shoigu's plan to defang the Wagner Group failed because he didn't anticipate Yevgeny Prigozhin's personal popularity. Prigozhin had prior knowledge of the moves being made against him, leading to his strike against Rostov-on-Don.
2/ Shoigu is nonetheless said to be unsackable due to knowing too many secrets and having too extensive a network of loyalists to be easily uprooted. Meanwhile, Putin is said to have been in complete confusion and reportedly put the FSB in charge during the mutiny. ⬇️
3/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that a source has told it about what happened on the Russian government side immediately before Wagner's mutiny:
"The harbinger of a coup in Russia is always a strengthening of the protection of state institutions.