Amy Nixon Profile picture
Jun 28 3 tweets 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
How is the 2023 housing market DIFFERENT from 2008?

There’s a new player: PRIVATE EQUITY

In the wake of the 08 crisis, private equity started buying up foreclosed residential homes in bulk

What does this mean for the housing market?

1/3
Typically when private equity gets involved, things get messy

In a low rate environment, there’s more leverage, layered financial instruments, and prices inflate

We’ve seen all this in the last decade

There’s more systemic risk, but also increased odds of a bail out

2/3
We’re in uncharted territory with US housing

In 2007, our housing market had NEVER seen big National home price declines

In 2023, we’ve never seen what happens in a high rate environment when institutions own swaths of residential properties

We’re about to find out

3/3

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More from @texasrunnerDFW

May 15
“Commercial Real Estate weakness is completely separate from Residential Real Estate”

WRONG.

IT’S TIME TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT BLACKSTONE

Here’s a 🧵 explaining why:

1/9
In March 2020, NYT Magazine published an article that went largely unnoticed due to an emerging pandemic

Let’s revisit it.

Starting in 2010, Wall Street began buying over $60 billion in foreclosed residential housing from American families

2/9

archive.fo/2020.03.04-152…
How did Wall Street finance this Residential RE?

“When credit was tight after the financial crisis, acquiring firms, led by Blackstone, figured out a way to generate more of it by creating a NEW FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT”

(remember how well those worked in the 2008 crisis?)

3/9
Read 10 tweets
Mar 15
As $CS tanks,

Let’s talk about banks and vacation rental property loans

10 billion+ in investment property loans w/out taxpayer backing

Who are the big lenders?

Visio Lending
HomeXpress
theLender

What banks dealt w/the securitizations?

CREDIT SUISSE 🚩 & BARCLAYS

1/4
Let’s take a closer look at the, um, underwriting “standards” for these AirBnb and STR home loans

“Less underwriting”

“No income verification, no job”

“Based on projected rental income”

2/4 Image
What banks packaged and sold these insane loans, some rated below investment grade?

Credit Suisse and Barclays

They declined to comment

$CS stock is TANKING right now

And NO ONE KNOWS HOW MANY OF THESE LOANS HAVE BEEN SOLD BC THERE’S NO ACCOUNTING 🚩 Image
Read 5 tweets
Dec 9, 2022
HOT TAKE:

Conventional Boomer wealth building wisdom is woefully misleading for millennials & Gen Z

I’ll break down 3 examples:

1. To build wealth, go to a good college

2. To build wealth, get married

3. To build wealth, buy a house

1/7
Basically, boomer gurus (who built wealth being gurus, not by doing the above items) work backwards w/statistics showing the majority of old wealthy people have done these things

Therefore, these are the things you must do to build wealth

It’s called survivorship bias

2/7
Let’s start with 1: Go to a “good” college

You finish private college educated…with -120k net worth

Public school is FINE

Better use of capital: spend $ on personality/aptitude testing, bc it’s 100x easier to build wealth doing something you love & are good at

3/7
Read 7 tweets
Nov 10, 2022
I received a DM yesterday from a fellow DFW resident who brought to my attention a unique example of hidden leverage in the SFH short term rental mortgage industry that is “hiding in plain sight” amongst all these high quality Freddie/Fannie loans

1/6
This person was approached by a SFH RE investor 18 months ago. The investor managed 400 homes and wanted to get into the STR space, but had already maxed out his ability to use conventional low rate 30 year Fannie/Freddie loans.

Enter: The Wrap Around Loan

2/6
The investor proposed a scenario where the person in my DM would purchase a home in his own name (600k-1mil) selected & negotiated by the investor, using a standard Fannie Mae loan with a 3.5% rate. The investor would then buy the home from him using a Contract for Deed

3/6
Read 6 tweets

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