1/ A new opinion poll in Russia, conducted before the Wagner mutiny, shows nearly equal numbers of Russians wanting to continue the war or start peace negotiations. However, 64% support a fresh attack on Kyiv and 58% believe the war is going well. ⬇️
2/ Pollster Russian Field has conducted the twelfth of a series of telephone surveys of Russian public opinion on the war. It should be noted that such surveys experience a high rate of refusals to participate, not surprisingly given the risks of voicing opinions in Russia.
3/ Key findings from the poll, which was conducted between 16-19 June 2023:
🔺 45% of respondents supported the continuation of the war, while 44% wanted to see peace negotiations.
🔺 If Putin decided to attack Kyiv again, 64% would support it, 23% would not support it.
4/🔺 The number supporting peace negotiations would increase to 53% if a new mobilisation was required to continue the war. 35% would still support the war even if there was another mobilisation.
5/🔺 72% would support Putin signing a peace agreement tomorrow. However, 20% would want to keep fighting.
6/🔺 58% believe the war is going well, with only 21% believing it's going badly. This figure has barely changed since April 2022, despite all of Russia's setbacks in the meantime.
7/🔺 Only 12% support a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine. 39% want to see a fresh offensive, with another 30% preferring to hold Russia's current positions in Ukraine.
🔺 73% of respondents believe that Russia is now moving in the right direction.
8/🔺 69% believe that the war is strengthening Russia's authority in the world. This figure increases to 82% among viewers of state-run TV. Only 21% disagree.
🔺 62% feel that they are not personally at risk in the war; women (43%) are more likely to feel at risk than men (26%)
9/🔺 There is widespread distrust about state-run media reporting on the war. 46% trust it, but 45% don't.
🔺 55% say they are not tired of news about the war, but 40% say that they are tired of it.
10/🔺 81% have heard about the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam. 44% blame Ukraine, with others blaming the United States (10%), Russia (6%) or Europe (3%). Older people and those who habitually get their information from state-run TV are more likely to blame Ukraine.
11/🔺 35% say they would like to wind the clock back and not go to war, but 49% say they oppose such a 'cancellation'. Men (57%) and respondents aged 45 and older (56-58%) are more likely to oppose cancellation of the war.
12/🔺 Young people aged 18-29 (53%) are the only demographic with a majority who say the war should not have been fought.
13/🔺 There is a strong correlation between income, age and support for the war: the wealthier or older a respondent is, the more likely they are to be pro-war, and to believe state-run media reports about it.
14/🔺 The majority of respondents get their information from television (36%), Internet sites (18%) or Telegram channels (18%). Those who read Telegram channels are most likely to support the war's continuation, probably reflecting the influence of Russia's warbloggers. /end
1/ A leaked document shows that the Russian Ministry of Defence was notified prior to the mutiny that Wagner would be moving equipment across Russia. However, this was reportedly cover for a plan to capture and remove Defence Minister Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov.
2/ According to the document, which has been published by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, Wagner Group representative Andrey Troshev informed the MOD leadership that Wagner would be moving its equipment to storage and transfer sites in Russia between 21 June – 5 July.
3/ A VChK-OGPU source says that Russian Air Force Chief Sergey Surovikin, who is reportedly himself an honorary Wagner member, acted as a guarantor of Wagner's good conduct in the operation. However, Surovokin is said to have been aware of the planned mutiny.
1/ Russia's deepening economic problems have resulted in a collapse in commodities earnings, drastic cuts in federal government spending and rail freight yards being clogged with thousands of Chinese shipping containers that are sitting empty for want of goods to export. ⬇️
2/ The Moscow Times reports that Russian government statistics are showing a dire eocnomic situation. As of 27 May, the Ministry of Finance had spent 48% of the allocated budget but had only collected 40% of forecast revenues. The deficit stands at 134% of the planned amount.
3/ The government has cut its spending for June to 44 billion rubles a day ($498 million), half the average for the previous five months. Federal tax collections have fallen by 19% compared to the same period in 2022.
1/ Russian law forbids conscripts being sent to fight abroad. However, the Russian army seems to have found a loophole: it's reportedly sending hundreds of conscripts to fight in Ukraine as part of punishment battalions, in a revival of a Stalin-era practice.
2/ A Russian Defence Ministry source has told SOTA that conscripts who have been sent to penal battalions (shtrafbats) for committing criminal offences, and whose term of conscription has not yet come to an end, are being sent to fight in Ukraine.
3/ Little attention is said to be paid to such conscripts because they are serving time in a 'closed unit' – a penal battalion – for committing crimes under military law or by decision of a military court as an alternative to imprisoning them.
1/ According to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel yesterday, a source told it that Yevgeny Prigozhin "really is in St. Petersburg. He says he doesn't give a fuck..." This appears to have been confirmed today. (h/t @revishvilig) ⬇️
2/ VChK-OGPU adds that according to a source, "Prigozhin has been given until 1 July to close all his affairs in Russia and take his property. (This was part of the mutiny arrangements) From the 1st, searches and seizure of assets will begin."
3/ "Taking advantage of this opportunity, they are preparing in the near future to take out all available cash of the Wagner PMC to Africa and Belarus."
Prigozhin reportedly believes he's come out on top from the mutiny, despite his enforced exile. A VChK-OGPU source says:
1/ The bitter feud between Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov appears to have originated in Syria, as an interesting personal account by Prigozhin of the February 2018 Battle of Khasham illustrates. ⬇️
2/ The battle took place when Wagner attempted to seize a US-held oil refinery but was summarily wiped out by American air power. It's been discussed before by a Wagner soldier who was in the battle. Prigozhin explains what happened at higher levels.
3/ Prigozhin claims that the refinery was actually held by ISIS, with "Americans in their ranks" helping them. He says that there were periodic exchanges of fire between ISIS and Wagner, who were aiming to block the US/Kurdish advance into ISIS-held south-eastern Syria.
1/ Although General Sergey Surovikin's whereabouts are unknown following the Wagner mutiny, it's reportedly not true that he's in Lefortovo Prison or pre-trial detention. However, the general's case probably isn't helped by the claim that he's an honorary Wagner member. ⬇️
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that sources tell it that Surovikin is not in Lefortovo and that Moscow's courts, pre-detention centre and prisoner convoys have not had any unusual recent activity or "special arrestees".
3/ As for Surovikin's whereabouts, a VChK-OGPU source says: "All we can say with certainty is that Surovikin, and a group of people very close to him, have gone out of touch. For two days, everyone has been unavailable. Including people who have been with him for a long time.