Thread by @EmpireinWinter

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Not sure why I want to weigh in on the Wagner operetta, with so many unknowns & a frankly bizarre scenography.

I find the idea of a Russia-initiated psyop implausible.
1/

With everything already going RF's way, militarily but also geopolitically--RF ideally positioned for a long war, economy & society humming along, positive vibes all round--there is *almost* no outcome of a successful op... 2/

(setting aside the potential downsides not just of failure but in success also--e.g., dead pilots) worth doing this.

The one potential exception to this is perhaps that the Russia Civil War prospect might ensure that the ZNPP false-flag goes back on the shelf for a while. 3/

The Civil-War scenario also makes more likely the continued & even increased levels of the same feckless NATO "equip, guide and train" strategy used to date (rather, say, than the more desperate coalition of the willing). 4/

After taking in some perspectives--Johnson, Giraldi, @imetatronink--the most plausible hypothesis I can offer (myself):

1. At some point (perhaps even pre-SMO) Prigozhin is approached by Western intel. 5/

2. Prigozhin, at this point: * is receptive AND * begins to turn OR * takes this to GRU/Putin OR * is informed by GRU/Putin that they know the approach has happened. 6/

3. Prior to the SMO, & up until the new territories became Russia, Wagner's legal position was unproblematic. After Donbass becomes RF, Wagner operates in a legal gray zone. During Bakhmut operation, Wagner's leverage reaches its apex, but...7/

it's clear MoD/Putin is going to reduce Wagner's independence. Though Prigozhin seems to understand & initially assents to Operation MeatGrinder, he sees the strategy, which also attrits Wagner, as all too consonant with MoD's intention to cut Wagner down to size. 8/

4. The anti-General-Staff PR campaign begins. If Western intel hasn't already established contacts, this would be the moment, and it's inconceivable that GRU/FSB do not see Prigo as a prime recruitment target by then. 9/

5. At this point Prigo should be clever enough to know this, & can only keep functioning if he at least seems to be working with RF Intel against West intel. He may in fact be ready to go either way, depending on how things break-- 10/

GRU/FSB will likely only consider giving him rope if there are reasonable prospects of rolling up the Western networks that Western intel has promised Prigozhin are lying in wait. 11/

5a. To highlight the Byzantine aspect of this game, it's also likely that any remaining HUMINT competence in the West will know that GRU/FSB is watching Prigo, & he may well be billing himself to CIA/MI6 as a double agent working with GRU. 12/

In fact, Western intel may already have fed Prigo a prize RF traitor to keep GRU on the line. If Prigo betrays West, they're only out pocket. But if he takes his shot at a real mutiny, it's all gravy (except for that nasty prospect of flipping Russia into war mode entirely) 13/

6. Much if not everything hinges on the success of the Grande Old Offensive. If RF underperforms, or UKR is even *half* as successful as promised, there may be real opportunities to change the game board for Prigo in Russia-- 14/

up to & including & mutiny, palace coup by the closet 5th column, civil war. At which point, ZNPP nuke disaster, parallel coup in Belarus, coalition of the willing moves into West UKR & / or across Moldova on Odessa, just as Air Defender 2023 turns into Air Attacker 2023
15/

7. The more disastrous, however, that the NATO planning & UKR execution are, the more the reputation of the MoD surges, the more chips Prigo must invest in his GRU/FSB handlers, who-- 16/

with the offensive & Stavka riding high--are prepared to let Prigo now stage a spectacular to see what if any (further) Western networks and assets can be exposed.
17/

8. Prigo's "Blair Witch Project" video & certain pro-West statements are so overdone, & so off-brand (in the latter case) that the op did not likely expose the most clever or cautious 5th columnists. RF intel may have gained something, but so far almost nothing visible. 18/

9. But now the West knows that Russia knows--and in the attempt, the West has not just committed an egregious act against a Russia at war--arguably worse than an assassination attempt on Putin--but one serious enough to have activated Russia's nuclear doctrine. 19/

One suspects a real inflection point has been reached--Russia may not longer be willing to let the West lead the escalation dance--and perhaps the Kramatorsk missile strike on Western forces is the first signal.

20/end

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