China adopted its first Foreign Relations Law yesterday.
Why the law now & what are the implications for foreign businesses? I explained in this @SCMPNews story.
‘Rule of law’: China adopts new legislation to help combat foreign sanctions via @scmpnewssc.mp/kiqq?utm_sourc…
In addition to my quotes along with @georgemagnus1 below in the story, I'd like to point to the following features of the law which will make it harder for businesses, both Chinese and foreign, to operate:
@georgemagnus1 1. Art. 5 emphasizes the central unified leadership of the CCP, which adds further to the uncertainty of the business environment as the Party could take actions based on political rather than legal considerations.
@georgemagnus1 2. As per Art. 6, all business organizations and institutions, other social organizations and citizens have "responsibilities and obligations to protect the national sovereignty, security, dignity, honor and interests in foreign relations and cooperation".
@georgemagnus1 The phrase “national sovereignty, security, dignity, honor and interests” is very ambitious and creates even wider obligations than the notorious Art. 77 of the National Security Law (which is one of the reasons which got Huawei & so many other Chinese firms in trouble),
@georgemagnus1 as well as Art. 14 of National Intelligence Law & Art. 32 of Anti-Espionage Law.
Essentially, Art. 6 turns all Chinese firms into an extended instrument of the Chinese government & the CCP (per Art. 5). It will not only make it harder for Chinese firms to operate overseas,
@georgemagnus1 but also make foreign businesses think twice before deciding to invest in China.
Compared to national security, “national dignity and honor” are even more elusive concepts. But based on past practices, I’d say it is now an obligation for every Chinese firm to protest,
@georgemagnus1 in every business dealings, when its foreign business partners casually refer to Taiwan as a country, or opinion on the situation in Xinjiang or Hong Kong.
Good news for compliance experts!
@georgemagnus1 3. Art. 30 states that China will implement its treaty obligations "in good faith". This could mean that it wouldn't strictly follow the letter of a treaty if it's not considered to be made in good faith, such as Phase 1 Agreement with US. This adds further business uncertainties
@georgemagnus1 The 2nd sentence of the Art. states that “Treaties and agreements concluded or acceded to by the state may not contravene the Constitution.”
Now anyone remembers what’s the first article of the PRC Constitution?
@georgemagnus1 “The leadership of the Communist Party of China is the most essential feature of socialism with Chinese characteristics. Any organization or individual is prohibited from undermining the socialist system.”
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The fall of the CCP could occur in several ways, though some scenarios appear more plausible than others.
One possibility, akin to the USSR, is a top-down dissolution where the Leader announces its end. However, this seems increasingly unlikely under Xi.
A more probable scenario might resemble the collapse of East Germany—an accidental unraveling triggered by unexpected events.
As China’s anti-corruption campaigns hang like a Damocles sword over officials, the fear of prosecution might push some to act preemptively:
For example,
Officials could make “accidental” announcements that serve as the first falling domino:
• Propaganda officials might announce the abolition of media/Party restrictions.
• Generals could declare that the military serves the people, not the Party.
Bloomberg confirmed that China is raising salaries for civil servants, as I mentioned 3 days ago. The move is supposed to kill two birds with one stone: boost both consumption and the morale of officials.
However, it not only won't achieve either objective but, instead, reveals
deeper structural problems within the Chinese governance system.
1. The primary cause of weak consumption lies in the plummeting incomes of private-sector workers. In contrast, most civil servants already benefit from low housing, food, and healthcare costs, which diminishes the
marginal utility of additional income. Moreover, due to the aggressive anti-corruption campaigns in recent years, officials are less inclined to spend conspicuously, even if they have more disposable income. Thus, efforts to boost consumption should target the private sector.
Not @realDonaldTrump.
Not the US Supreme Court.
Not the US Congress.
Instead, it might just be a former Chinese gymnast: Wu Liufang.
Wu, whose 6 million followers vanished overnight on Douyin—the Chinese version of TikTok—represents
a cautionary tale of control and censorship.
A former national team gymnast, Wu struggled to make a living after retiring. To survive, she turned to flirty dance videos on Douyin. Her account, briefly suspended in Nov, was reinstated on Dec 1, skyrocketing to over 6 million
followers without her posting a single new video.
But on Christmas Eve, Douyin erased all 6 million followers, citing “vulgar content.”
Here’s the twist: Wu wasn’t the one being punished. The real victims were the 6 million users who consciously chose to follow her, only to
The answer is found in Art. 2, which states that the key to the work promoting the development of private economy is to “ensure its correct political direction”.