Henry Gao Profile picture
Jun 29, 2023 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
China adopted its first Foreign Relations Law yesterday.

Why the law now & what are the implications for foreign businesses? I explained in this @SCMPNews story.

‘Rule of law’: China adopts new legislation to help combat foreign sanctions via @scmpnewssc.mp/kiqq?utm_sourc…
In addition to my quotes along with @georgemagnus1 below in the story, I'd like to point to the following features of the law which will make it harder for businesses, both Chinese and foreign, to operate:
@georgemagnus1 1. Art. 5 emphasizes the central unified leadership of the CCP, which adds further to the uncertainty of the business environment as the Party could take actions based on political rather than legal considerations.
@georgemagnus1 2. As per Art. 6, all business organizations and institutions, other social organizations and citizens have "responsibilities and obligations to protect the national sovereignty, security, dignity, honor and interests in foreign relations and cooperation".
@georgemagnus1 The phrase “national sovereignty, security, dignity, honor and interests” is very ambitious and creates even wider obligations than the notorious Art. 77 of the National Security Law (which is one of the reasons which got Huawei & so many other Chinese firms in trouble),
@georgemagnus1 as well as Art. 14 of National Intelligence Law & Art. 32 of Anti-Espionage Law.

Essentially, Art. 6 turns all Chinese firms into an extended instrument of the Chinese government & the CCP (per Art. 5). It will not only make it harder for Chinese firms to operate overseas,

@georgemagnus1 but also make foreign businesses think twice before deciding to invest in China.

Compared to national security, “national dignity and honor” are even more elusive concepts. But based on past practices, I’d say it is now an obligation for every Chinese firm to protest,
@georgemagnus1 in every business dealings, when its foreign business partners casually refer to Taiwan as a country, or opinion on the situation in Xinjiang or Hong Kong.

Good news for compliance experts!
@georgemagnus1 3. Art. 30 states that China will implement its treaty obligations "in good faith". This could mean that it wouldn't strictly follow the letter of a treaty if it's not considered to be made in good faith, such as Phase 1 Agreement with US. This adds further business uncertainties
@georgemagnus1 The 2nd sentence of the Art. states that “Treaties and agreements concluded or acceded to by the state may not contravene the Constitution.”

Now anyone remembers what’s the first article of the PRC Constitution?
@georgemagnus1 “The leadership of the Communist Party of China is the most essential feature of socialism with Chinese characteristics. Any organization or individual is prohibited from undermining the socialist system.”

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Henry Gao

Henry Gao Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @henrysgao

Jan 12
How Might the CCP Fall?

The fall of the CCP could occur in several ways, though some scenarios appear more plausible than others.

One possibility, akin to the USSR, is a top-down dissolution where the Leader announces its end. However, this seems increasingly unlikely under Xi.
A more probable scenario might resemble the collapse of East Germany—an accidental unraveling triggered by unexpected events.

As China’s anti-corruption campaigns hang like a Damocles sword over officials, the fear of prosecution might push some to act preemptively:
For example,
Officials could make “accidental” announcements that serve as the first falling domino:
• Propaganda officials might announce the abolition of media/Party restrictions.
• Generals could declare that the military serves the people, not the Party.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 1
Bloomberg confirmed that China is raising salaries for civil servants, as I mentioned 3 days ago. The move is supposed to kill two birds with one stone: boost both consumption and the morale of officials.

However, it not only won't achieve either objective but, instead, reveals
deeper structural problems within the Chinese governance system.

1. The primary cause of weak consumption lies in the plummeting incomes of private-sector workers. In contrast, most civil servants already benefit from low housing, food, and healthcare costs, which diminishes the
marginal utility of additional income. Moreover, due to the aggressive anti-corruption campaigns in recent years, officials are less inclined to spend conspicuously, even if they have more disposable income. Thus, efforts to boost consumption should target the private sector.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 27, 2024
Who’s Gonna Decide the Fate of @tiktok_us?

Not @realDonaldTrump.
Not the US Supreme Court.
Not the US Congress.

Instead, it might just be a former Chinese gymnast: Wu Liufang.

Wu, whose 6 million followers vanished overnight on Douyin—the Chinese version of TikTok—represents
a cautionary tale of control and censorship.

A former national team gymnast, Wu struggled to make a living after retiring. To survive, she turned to flirty dance videos on Douyin. Her account, briefly suspended in Nov, was reinstated on Dec 1, skyrocketing to over 6 million
followers without her posting a single new video.

But on Christmas Eve, Douyin erased all 6 million followers, citing “vulgar content.”

Here’s the twist: Wu wasn’t the one being punished. The real victims were the 6 million users who consciously chose to follow her, only to
Read 5 tweets
Dec 21, 2024
@guoguang_wu兄的精彩演讲探讨了后中共时代政治转型中必须面对的若干重要问题,这些问题也是当前国内外华人普遍关注的焦点。如何回答这些问题,将直接关系到中国民主化的成败。我对此有一些初步思考,在此抛砖引玉,与国光兄商榷。

一、经济增长
国光兄提到的第一个问题是后中共时代的经济增长前景。
过去四十多年,坊间普遍认为中共的合法性主要来自其推动经济增长的能力。但我认为将经济增长完全归功于中共统治是片面的。改革开放前20年的经济增长,实际上主要得益于中共放松了对社会在政治经济领域的管控,释放了民间经济的活力,举凡个体经济、乡镇企业,还是民营经济,莫不如此。
而后20年的经济增长则主要得益于2001年加入WTO,融入全球经济体系,沿袭了东亚外向型经济增长模式,并无特别创新。

因此,后中共时代能否继续保持经济增长实际上是显而易见的。目前中国经济困境的两大原因分别为:
1. 外因:战狼外交和经济胁迫策略使主要出口市场对依赖中国供应链的风险产生警觉,
Read 13 tweets
Oct 10, 2024
In an attempt to save its economy, China published a draft Private Economy Promotion Law today.

Will it save the ailing Chinese economy?

Highly unlikely.

Yet, this Law is still very useful, in that it reveals the many problems plaguing China’s private economy. Image
1. The very first Article states that the goal of the law is to “promote the healthy development of the private economy”.

But “healthy” according to whom? Should’t the private entrepreneurs be the ones to decide? Why should someone else decide this?

The answer is found in Art. 2, which states that the key to the work promoting the development of private economy is to “ensure its correct political direction”.

What then is “correct political direction”?
Read 23 tweets
Jul 31, 2023
秦晖教授的精彩演讲回答了关于中国民主化的几个重大问题:

1,民主制度是否适用于像中国这种文化和宗教传统都与世界主要民主国家截然不同的国家?

民主化的实现并不以特定文化或宗教为先决条件,基督教、君主制可以促成民主化,儒学同样可以也可以促进民主化。

2,像中国这样长期实行社会主义、
自由传统薄弱的国家,是否能够实现民主化?

无论是左派还是右派,都可以促进民主化:左派可以要求增加政府责任,右派可以要求限制政府权力。而与之相反,在中国,那些只要求政府扩权、却反对相应扩大政府责任的左派都是伪左派;同理,那些不要求限制政府权力、只要求限制政府责任的右派也是伪右派。
3,如何实现民主化?

实现民主化,不需要喊那些激动人心的口号,也不需要讲那些诘屈聱牙的道理,只要人人从我做起,追问政府责任,要求政府履行其本应履行的义务,从社会主义的初心出发,就可以把政府逼得不堪重负,最终被迫召开制宪圆桌会议。
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(