1/ Although General Sergey Surovikin's whereabouts are unknown following the Wagner mutiny, it's reportedly not true that he's in Lefortovo Prison or pre-trial detention. However, the general's case probably isn't helped by the claim that he's an honorary Wagner member. ⬇️
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that sources tell it that Surovikin is not in Lefortovo and that Moscow's courts, pre-detention centre and prisoner convoys have not had any unusual recent activity or "special arrestees".
3/ As for Surovikin's whereabouts, a VChK-OGPU source says: "All we can say with certainty is that Surovikin, and a group of people very close to him, have gone out of touch. For two days, everyone has been unavailable. Including people who have been with him for a long time.
4/ "Also, the fact is that they are not in Lefortovo. There can be different reasons for such a disappearance, from some kind of work assignment, to the case that "preventive measures" have been taken with them, including Surovikin. Such a practice does exist."
5/ According to Mikhail Khodorkovsky's Dossier Center, Surovikin – a long-time ally of Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin – is an honorary member of the Wagner Group, along with 30 other Russian generals and officials. It's likely they're all under suspicion now.
6/ The Dossier Center claims that documents it has seen state that "Surovikin became a Wagnerite back in 2017. He was given a personal PMC [Private Military Company] badge under the number M-3744." The Dossier Center says it'll expose the names of other honorary Wagnerites. /end
1/ Angry mobilised Russians have recorded themselves in a verbal confrontation with an officer. It's a rare insight into the relationship between the soldiers facing Ukraine's counter-offensive and their frequently absent commanders, whom they say have abandoned them to die. ⬇️
2/ The men are reportedly from the 1486th Leningrad Regiment. They are serving on the Bakhmut flanks, from which videos have emerged about their treatment as "cannon fodder" and their lack of ammunition or training. This recording says the same things.
3/ In the recording, the discussion goes as follows. An officer (O) named Sergey is apparently informing a soldier (S) about the death of a popular man in their unit during the Ukrainian counter-offensive. The soldier is very angry about how the men have been treated:
1/ A leaked document shows that the Russian Ministry of Defence was notified prior to the mutiny that Wagner would be moving equipment across Russia. However, this was reportedly cover for a plan to capture and remove Defence Minister Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov.
2/ According to the document, which has been published by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, Wagner Group representative Andrey Troshev informed the MOD leadership that Wagner would be moving its equipment to storage and transfer sites in Russia between 21 June – 5 July.
3/ A VChK-OGPU source says that Russian Air Force Chief Sergey Surovikin, who is reportedly himself an honorary Wagner member, acted as a guarantor of Wagner's good conduct in the operation. However, Surovokin is said to have been aware of the planned mutiny.
1/ Russia's deepening economic problems have resulted in a collapse in commodities earnings, drastic cuts in federal government spending and rail freight yards being clogged with thousands of Chinese shipping containers that are sitting empty for want of goods to export. ⬇️
2/ The Moscow Times reports that Russian government statistics are showing a dire eocnomic situation. As of 27 May, the Ministry of Finance had spent 48% of the allocated budget but had only collected 40% of forecast revenues. The deficit stands at 134% of the planned amount.
3/ The government has cut its spending for June to 44 billion rubles a day ($498 million), half the average for the previous five months. Federal tax collections have fallen by 19% compared to the same period in 2022.
1/ Russian law forbids conscripts being sent to fight abroad. However, the Russian army seems to have found a loophole: it's reportedly sending hundreds of conscripts to fight in Ukraine as part of punishment battalions, in a revival of a Stalin-era practice.
2/ A Russian Defence Ministry source has told SOTA that conscripts who have been sent to penal battalions (shtrafbats) for committing criminal offences, and whose term of conscription has not yet come to an end, are being sent to fight in Ukraine.
3/ Little attention is said to be paid to such conscripts because they are serving time in a 'closed unit' – a penal battalion – for committing crimes under military law or by decision of a military court as an alternative to imprisoning them.
1/ According to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel yesterday, a source told it that Yevgeny Prigozhin "really is in St. Petersburg. He says he doesn't give a fuck..." This appears to have been confirmed today. (h/t @revishvilig) ⬇️
2/ VChK-OGPU adds that according to a source, "Prigozhin has been given until 1 July to close all his affairs in Russia and take his property. (This was part of the mutiny arrangements) From the 1st, searches and seizure of assets will begin."
3/ "Taking advantage of this opportunity, they are preparing in the near future to take out all available cash of the Wagner PMC to Africa and Belarus."
Prigozhin reportedly believes he's come out on top from the mutiny, despite his enforced exile. A VChK-OGPU source says:
1/ The bitter feud between Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov appears to have originated in Syria, as an interesting personal account by Prigozhin of the February 2018 Battle of Khasham illustrates. ⬇️
2/ The battle took place when Wagner attempted to seize a US-held oil refinery but was summarily wiped out by American air power. It's been discussed before by a Wagner soldier who was in the battle. Prigozhin explains what happened at higher levels.
3/ Prigozhin claims that the refinery was actually held by ISIS, with "Americans in their ranks" helping them. He says that there were periodic exchanges of fire between ISIS and Wagner, who were aiming to block the US/Kurdish advance into ISIS-held south-eastern Syria.