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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
@althecat
Jun 29, 2023 • 15 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
In the West Pacific this is the corresponding raw atmospheric energy picture and the current forecast has previously mentioned is pretty dire for Japan which is currently forecast to receive a series of large atmospheric rivers run up the island group.
This is the resulting rainfall result for Japan which is cyclonic in Scale in the South West, the same area hammered by several cyclones last year.
Here's the West Pacific IWVT model result which shows the levels of energy present very starkly like that over the North Atlantic. The simulations do show a pause in the transmission of water westwards which corresponds to the pause in the flow of water vabour which is seen in… https://t.co/BR80AEFxlztwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Here is the overall West Pacific Rainfall solution which contains considerable flooding potential. The rains in South West Japan are amonb the highest here at 760mm over the coming two weeks.
This animation is a 10 day forecast from the ACG model of Equatorial indican ocean - and in the next animation you can see a 16 day forecast for the Indian Subcontinent. For now, like the West Pacific it is relatviely free of cyclone candidate systems.
This is the IWVT GFS1 model forecast for the North Indian Ocean - it shows a massive amount of intense water vapour transport much heading down the East coast of Africa.
And the rainfall solution for the Indian Submcontinent and Western parts of SEA.
Threadfix....
Completing our survey of the Tropical belt here's the current forecast for Africa and the Middle East. The rainy season here is definitely starting later and is less itense (as per expectations wrt El-Nino) but the big rain season is only just about to start - and its overall… https://t.co/EO8m3e3bgStwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
This animation shows the current satellite presentation over the North Indian Ocean. Including a visual illustration of the remarkable bi-directional water flows across the Arabian Sea.
Threadfix...
In summary:

El-Nino is present (see the latest advisory here >>

And it is fairly strong. That said its only just started and its impact this northern summer may not be that great.

For now at least the threat of #ExtremeWeather from rainfall remains… https://t.co/30NDsH7EOk https://t.co/84rmqvwcqjcpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy…
twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
To conclude, one final #extremeweather observation, this time for Central America - and one which (along with the early active Atlantic Hurricane Season) brings into question whether this El-Nino will be the same as earlier ones in terms of globally causing large numbers of… https://t.co/6REgxnlnMbtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
One of the overall patterns across the globe over the past four years has been the noticeable intensity of convective storms in terms of sheer quantity of energy. Cyclones like Julia, INFA, IAN, Freddy, long lived travelling massive distances and in some cases remaining live over… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Aug 10
Netanyahu has proposed a pathway to end the war in Gaza under pressure primarily from the U.S. UK, France & Germany. Spain and Ireland and several other European nations & the European Commission.

LIVE: PM Netanyahu Holds a Press conference youtube.com/live/1ebXvF9MO…
The @israelipm sounds defeated. Hopefully this is the beginning of the end. The deal being offered to Gaza is far from perfect but it sounds workable in Netanyahus outline.
@IsraeliPM Whether it will be approved by Hamas however is unclear and rather complicated - as it’s unclear who inside Gaza would be in a position to respond to the offer. Many of Hamas’s fighters may prefer to die as martyrs also than to agree to any deal.
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 25
Guess who has the most to lose if/when @realDonaldTrump discovers he’s now a lame duck President.

He is now so deep under water both in polling and with his base that it’s very hard to imagine him bouncing back.
I’ll answer my question shortly buts it’s well worth pondering…. In the meantime consider this.

Trump is now a laughing stock. And not only is everyone in America now laughing at him. But he has also been abandoned by his base and his party.
The bonfire of vanity that belongs to Donald Trump is iridescent, a signal to the world that his presidency has ended before it even started.
Read 7 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 25
This is pathetic from @realDonaldTrump he’s lashing out like an angry teenager. Jerome Powell says he’s included a the costs of a building that was completed years ago in his very public attack on the FED Chair.
Trump has completely lost the plot. The single most damaging thing that he could do to undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar (which he publicly claims to want to deflate and there by make all Americans poorer - is to attack the Federal Reserve and the SEC.
@realDonaldTrump Trump is setting fire to the dollar to distract from his Epstein mess what a complete baby.
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 2
I attended the Bonn climate talks. They were very disappointing to everyone. The elephant in the room was (of course) the U.S. decision to withdraw from the talks altogether.

open.spotify.com/episode/3YV0SU…
Unfortunately.. perhaps intentionally in advance of the continuation of climate talks regardless of #US_Disintigration the talks were also very sparsely attended particularly by activists and NGOs. The reason for this was @elonmusk destroying @-USAID.
@elonmusk As you can see the USAID Twitter account is now dead - deleted which is an appalling act of vandalism executed by Elon and his tech-bro team of teenagers.
Read 13 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 2
This article is deeply depressing. For my part at Scoop.co.nz it is clear to me that:

1. The Govt has a deliberate strategy - probably not official but nevertheless operative to destroy NZ media.
2. This is not going to change any time soon.
thespinoff.co.nz/politics/02-07…
& Sadly from what I discerned last year the @nzlabour opposition is both apathetic and indifferent to the plight of media. Also the @NZGreens. And have always been so for as long as I can remember.

This is extremely disappointing
@nzlabour @NZGreens I will be returning to NZ in August to ensure continues to function in these very difficult times for NZ media. We have faced numerous big challenges recently and thank our supporters and readers for their support.Scoop.co.nz
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 22
Ok so this is a bit weird, but in a kinda chill way so do bare with me and and I will be happy to answer questions afterwards. It’s about a castle on a virtual island in a massive online role playing game called Evony and it involves a possible but speculative discussion about @elonmusk and @X.

All will be revealed but first a picture or four actually from the game. More will come.Image
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Ok. So here’s what I think is going on in a nutshell. I think elonmusk has invested in a MMORPG: a “Massive Multimedia Online Role Playing Game” which is a bit of a mouthful, called EVONY.

I liked its Twitter ads and finally clicked. It’s huge. Someone else can do the business story here which I am sure is interesting too.Image
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But the this bit is weird.

The mysterious knight on the red horse arrived this morning beside my castle and he had some treasure.

I hadn’t a clue who it was so I grabbed the treasure and tried to kill the horse and rider as that’s what you do. But we got smashed badly.
Read 15 tweets

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