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In the West Pacific this is the corresponding raw atmospheric energy picture and the current forecast has previously mentioned is pretty dire for Japan which is currently forecast to receive a series of large atmospheric rivers run up the island group.
This is the resulting rainfall result for Japan which is cyclonic in Scale in the South West, the same area hammered by several cyclones last year.
Here's the West Pacific IWVT model result which shows the levels of energy present very starkly like that over the North Atlantic. The simulations do show a pause in the transmission of water westwards which corresponds to the pause in the flow of water vabour which is seen in… https://t.co/BR80AEFxlztwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Here is the overall West Pacific Rainfall solution which contains considerable flooding potential. The rains in South West Japan are amonb the highest here at 760mm over the coming two weeks.
This animation is a 10 day forecast from the ACG model of Equatorial indican ocean - and in the next animation you can see a 16 day forecast for the Indian Subcontinent. For now, like the West Pacific it is relatviely free of cyclone candidate systems.
This is the IWVT GFS1 model forecast for the North Indian Ocean - it shows a massive amount of intense water vapour transport much heading down the East coast of Africa.
And the rainfall solution for the Indian Submcontinent and Western parts of SEA.
Completing our survey of the Tropical belt here's the current forecast for Africa and the Middle East. The rainy season here is definitely starting later and is less itense (as per expectations wrt El-Nino) but the big rain season is only just about to start - and its overall… https://t.co/EO8m3e3bgStwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
This animation shows the current satellite presentation over the North Indian Ocean. Including a visual illustration of the remarkable bi-directional water flows across the Arabian Sea.
In summary:
El-Nino is present (see the latest advisory here >>
And it is fairly strong. That said its only just started and its impact this northern summer may not be that great.
For now at least the threat of #ExtremeWeather from rainfall remains… https://t.co/30NDsH7EOk https://t.co/84rmqvwcqjcpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy…
twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
El-Nino is present (see the latest advisory here >>
And it is fairly strong. That said its only just started and its impact this northern summer may not be that great.
For now at least the threat of #ExtremeWeather from rainfall remains… https://t.co/30NDsH7EOk https://t.co/84rmqvwcqjcpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy…
twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
To conclude, one final #extremeweather observation, this time for Central America - and one which (along with the early active Atlantic Hurricane Season) brings into question whether this El-Nino will be the same as earlier ones in terms of globally causing large numbers of… https://t.co/6REgxnlnMbtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
One of the overall patterns across the globe over the past four years has been the noticeable intensity of convective storms in terms of sheer quantity of energy. Cyclones like Julia, INFA, IAN, Freddy, long lived travelling massive distances and in some cases remaining live over… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
/ends
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