1/ Russia's deepening economic problems have resulted in a collapse in commodities earnings, drastic cuts in federal government spending and rail freight yards being clogged with thousands of Chinese shipping containers that are sitting empty for want of goods to export. ⬇️
2/ The Moscow Times reports that Russian government statistics are showing a dire eocnomic situation. As of 27 May, the Ministry of Finance had spent 48% of the allocated budget but had only collected 40% of forecast revenues. The deficit stands at 134% of the planned amount.
3/ The government has cut its spending for June to 44 billion rubles a day ($498 million), half the average for the previous five months. Federal tax collections have fallen by 19% compared to the same period in 2022.
4/ Oil and gas revenues have halved from 5.658 to 2.853 trillion rubles ($64 billion to $32.3 billion). Exports to Europe have collapsed, and oil companies are having to give double-digit discounts to Indian and Chinese buyers.
5/ The government's expenses have increased by 26% to 13.23 trillion rubles, of which almost a third, 3.9 trillion rubles, is being spent on secret items of expenditure. Secret military spending is likely to amount for as much as 3.1 trillion rubles of this.
6/ This represents an increase of 3.5 trillion rubles since last year in the secret category. Taking into account 884 billion rubles of open military spending, the total military expenditure could amount to 4 trillion ($45.3 bn).
7/ Russia's economic difficulties are particularly symbolised by the mountains of empty Chinese shipping containers piling up at railway stations across the country. This is because Russia imports far more from China than it exports.
8/ An additional problem is that the type of exports between the two countries differ: China mostly exports manufactured goods in containers, while Russia mostly exports raw materials in open wagons (gondola cars) or tanks.
9/ According to the Moscow Times, "the situation is almost critical, and logistics operators have already begun to offer big discounts for the export of containers in the direction of China, so delivery in that direction is much cheaper."
10/ This enables freight companies to at least ship something and not just send back empty containers at a bigger loss. /end
1/ Russian law forbids conscripts being sent to fight abroad. However, the Russian army seems to have found a loophole: it's reportedly sending hundreds of conscripts to fight in Ukraine as part of punishment battalions, in a revival of a Stalin-era practice.
2/ A Russian Defence Ministry source has told SOTA that conscripts who have been sent to penal battalions (shtrafbats) for committing criminal offences, and whose term of conscription has not yet come to an end, are being sent to fight in Ukraine.
3/ Little attention is said to be paid to such conscripts because they are serving time in a 'closed unit' – a penal battalion – for committing crimes under military law or by decision of a military court as an alternative to imprisoning them.
1/ According to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel yesterday, a source told it that Yevgeny Prigozhin "really is in St. Petersburg. He says he doesn't give a fuck..." This appears to have been confirmed today. (h/t @revishvilig) ⬇️
2/ VChK-OGPU adds that according to a source, "Prigozhin has been given until 1 July to close all his affairs in Russia and take his property. (This was part of the mutiny arrangements) From the 1st, searches and seizure of assets will begin."
3/ "Taking advantage of this opportunity, they are preparing in the near future to take out all available cash of the Wagner PMC to Africa and Belarus."
Prigozhin reportedly believes he's come out on top from the mutiny, despite his enforced exile. A VChK-OGPU source says:
1/ The bitter feud between Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov appears to have originated in Syria, as an interesting personal account by Prigozhin of the February 2018 Battle of Khasham illustrates. ⬇️
2/ The battle took place when Wagner attempted to seize a US-held oil refinery but was summarily wiped out by American air power. It's been discussed before by a Wagner soldier who was in the battle. Prigozhin explains what happened at higher levels.
3/ Prigozhin claims that the refinery was actually held by ISIS, with "Americans in their ranks" helping them. He says that there were periodic exchanges of fire between ISIS and Wagner, who were aiming to block the US/Kurdish advance into ISIS-held south-eastern Syria.
1/ Although General Sergey Surovikin's whereabouts are unknown following the Wagner mutiny, it's reportedly not true that he's in Lefortovo Prison or pre-trial detention. However, the general's case probably isn't helped by the claim that he's an honorary Wagner member. ⬇️
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that sources tell it that Surovikin is not in Lefortovo and that Moscow's courts, pre-detention centre and prisoner convoys have not had any unusual recent activity or "special arrestees".
3/ As for Surovikin's whereabouts, a VChK-OGPU source says: "All we can say with certainty is that Surovikin, and a group of people very close to him, have gone out of touch. For two days, everyone has been unavailable. Including people who have been with him for a long time.
1/ Mobilised Russians facing the Ukrainian counter-offensive say they were "abandoned like kittens" by their commanders, faced Ukrainian tanks and artillery with light weapons, little ammo and no counter-fire, took heavy casualties, and had no medical evacuations on hand. ⬇️
2/ The "Look out, news" Telegram channel has posted an audio recording of a Russian soldier from the 'Storm' detachment of the 34th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade. His unit is likely to have recently been redeployed to the Zaporizhzhia front from the left bank of the Dnipro.
3/ The men are likely to have been in the Lobkove-Piatykhatky area, where the Russians recently suffered a heavy defeat. The brigade has been badly mauled before during the fighting north of Kherson in 2022.
1/ A new opinion poll in Russia, conducted before the Wagner mutiny, shows nearly equal numbers of Russians wanting to continue the war or start peace negotiations. However, 64% support a fresh attack on Kyiv and 58% believe the war is going well. ⬇️
2/ Pollster Russian Field has conducted the twelfth of a series of telephone surveys of Russian public opinion on the war. It should be noted that such surveys experience a high rate of refusals to participate, not surprisingly given the risks of voicing opinions in Russia.
3/ Key findings from the poll, which was conducted between 16-19 June 2023:
🔺 45% of respondents supported the continuation of the war, while 44% wanted to see peace negotiations.
🔺 If Putin decided to attack Kyiv again, 64% would support it, 23% would not support it.