MarkHertling Profile picture
Jun 30 15 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
My @cnn colleagues @NatashaBertrand & @jimsciutto are reporting on the "cluster munition' decision that seems to be at a critical point.

They go by many names:
-"Cluster munitions."
-DP-ICM (Dual-Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions).
-"Steel Rain."

Here's a 🧵on them. 1/
I'll start by saying this: Approval will be a tough call for the Biden Administration. I can understand that.

It's because I have a bit of history w/ these weapons, from Desert Storm. I'm mentioned in this article. 2/
nytimes.com/2020/01/15/mag…
A War Story.

In Desert Storm, our Cavalry Squadron had the advance guard mission for @1stArmoredDiv. 10km in forward of the Division, Bradleys across a 20km front.

We'd been constantly moving for 3 days.

A few fights with rogue Iraqi units. Taking lots of prisoners. 3/
Our mission was to find Iraqi Republican Guards - the Medina & Tawakana Divisions- & then pass the fight to the @1stArmoredDiv Tank Brigades to fight.

We found them at 0130 on 27 Feb 1991.

Soon, I was outside my Bradley coordinating w/ the tank battalion Ops Officer. 4/
It was rainy & dark. We both heard 5 "pops" overhead.

5 DP-ICM artillery rounds had opened over us, but we didn't know what it was.

Each round had between 72-88 "bomblets."

In seconds, it was like we were inside a popcorn popper, with small bomblets landing around us. 5/
Several vehicles were hit. My Bradley sustained damaged to the TOW launcher & radio antennas. HMWWVs were penetrated; 1 had anti-tank weapons inside that exploded.

31 soldiers hit w/ shrapnel, two were seriously injured.

Unexploded bomblets were all around. 6/
All happened in seconds. We got the hell out of there. On leaving we ran over bomblets...more damage.

The unexploded bomblets -small grenades- remained. There's a 6-105 dud rate.

With all the rounds fired in Desert Storm, thousands of grenades littered the country. 7/
There's more.

DP-ICM fired from HIMARS/MLRS have between 518-644 bomblets in EACH missile...much more than the 155 arty rounds.

6 rockets in each HIMAR "spill" would drop 3800+ bomblets, over a wide area. With a 5% dud rate, that's 190 "grenades" remaining for each strike. 8/
Commanders who plan & incorporate these arty/rocket attacks with cluster munitions come to understand their forces are constrained from maneuvering through the areas, due to unexploded munitions and troop safety issues.

The US learned the hard way. 9/

nytimes.com/2019/12/04/mag…
There's also long-term threat to civilians.

Russia has been using cluster munitions in the Donbas since 2014. So has Ukraine.

1000s of Ukrainian civilians & 100s of children have been harmed from unexploded munitions in the Donbas since 2014. 10/

lieber.westpoint.edu/cluster-muniti…
The "debate" on the US providing cluster munitions features several political issues.

The US, Ukraine & Russia are not signatories to the ban, but most NATO allies are (Turkey is not; they've provided them to UAF).

That affects the decision.11/
icrc.org/en/war-and-law…
Also, at the beginning of the 2022 invasion, RU used cluster munitions in large cities that were called "war crimes."

Nation cede the moral high ground when they use them as they are indiscriminate & will harm civilians.

That plays a role, too. 12/
scientificamerican.com/article/how-in…
Finally, DP-ICM was designed in the 80's to strike Soviet groups of artillery, before the advent of US precision artillery weapons.

Ukraine's use of precision arty & missiles from the west have brought success...with the exception of striking troop targets. 13/
So, as you see I have some bias against (and some for) the decision to provide UAF with our cluster munitions...but like all other contributions it's a tough call with a lot of factors for any western country, but especially the US. 14/14
That should be 6-10%

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More from @MarkHertling

Jun 30
The great @ErinBurnett did a lead in to this story tonight at 7 ET, and I was hoping she'd ask me about this.

This could either be a big deal, or no big deal.

Suvorikin is an RU air force general. He's been with Prigozhin in several conflicts. 1/4
cnn.com/europe/live-ne…
"General Armegeddon" & "Putin's Chef" share the same approach...scorched earth, terrorize civilians, commit unchecked war crimes, pay no attention to the rules of land warfare or international law.

Oh, and they don't really care for/lead their own troops, either. 2/4
Surovikin (and others) may be on some "Wagner VIP list," but I suspect that may only means they are "honorary members of the PMC."

Hell, I'm an "honorary member" of the 3d ACR, the German 12th Armored BDE, and a few others. This is an honorific in the military. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Jun 26
"The greatest distance on the battlefield is the 6 inches between the ears of the commander...and that's the commander at EVERY level."

Words of wisdom from a much respected military mentor of mine.

What's that mean & how does it relate to the weekend's events in RU? A 🧵 1/13
Good commanders of military organizations serve their country, their leaders, the people (in the US case, that is why we "support & defend the Constitution").

That service is based -to paraphrase 1 of Clausewitz's many trinities of war - on "trust." 2/
1. Soldiers trust each other...that makes for cohesion & effectiveness.

2. Military leaders trust government/civilian leaders to do what's right in policy, strategy, accountability.

3. The people trust their government leaders to keep the nation secure, to be legitimate. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Jun 24
It hit me we're thinking of Prigozhin in the wrong way.

His actions have confused us these last 48 hours (and beyond) because we see him as the leader of a large mercenary body, fighting for pay (or freedom from jail) instead of what soldiers fight to defend (the state). 1/4
After some research, I'm now concluding he fits the definition of a modern day warlord, with these attributes:

Here are the characteristics of a warlord: · an individual with limited military skills, who is accountable to no one, who has no true ideology... 2/4
...who rules through patronage, who flourishes only when the central government is weak, and who further fragments the politics, the unified military action, and the economics of a central government.

There is no contribution to a nation's power, only the individual's. 3/4
Read 5 tweets
Jun 16
"Soldier's Heart."

2 decades ago, I met a unique person at West Point.

An Ivy League English Literature Professor teaching Plebes (Freshmen), Elizabeth Samet was writing a book about how cadets were facing the wars that would define their generation. 1/11 Image
In that book, she describes what it was like coming to a place like @WestPoint_USMA, and learning the military culture.

She would teach cadets about war, masterfully using literature to describe what they would soon face.

They loved her for that. 2/

northcountrypublicradio.org/news/npr/15890…
But she would also learn so much from her students...and graduates, as they wrote to her after experiencing what she had only read about in the classics.

The book, "Soldier's Heart," is one of my favorites, and it holds a special place on my bookshelf as she signed it for me. 3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
Jun 13
A former President is being indicted - for the 2d time - & there's non-stop coverage.

Some good analysis, some not so good.

Many keep bringing up how "those in the military are likely the most upset about Trump absconding with intel secrets."

Yes, but there's more. 1/
Having read the indictment (4x's now), the amount & type of classified information Trump took, hid, did not secure, and refused to give back is, IMHO, gobsmacking.

Many analysts have called them "war plans." I doubt any documents fit into that specific contingency category. 2/
The documents were likely extremely detailed intelligence assessments, w/ potential foe (& friendly) capabilities & weaknesses & US capabilities we would not want anyone - especially foes - to know.

Many have said, this isn't a document issue it's a national security issue. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Jun 9
This photo tweeted by @RALee85 shows Bradley’s and Leo II’s damaged (obvious thrown tracks, apparent mine damage). This is part of combat.
It also speaks to the need for trained maintenance teams to conduct rapid BDAR (battle damage assessment and repair) on high-tech kit 1/
This is the kind of thing I’ve been tweeting about for months. The training of the logisticians, mechanics, repair teams who have established supply chains & available parts
.
There’s even a manual for BDAR (attached). 2/

armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs/…
There WILL be damaged (& some destroyed) western equipment on the offensive battlefield…from direct hits, mine strikes, or even just the “track slap” that comes with heavy track vehicles going over rough terrain.

Things break - a lot - in combat. 3/
Read 8 tweets

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