Thread by @MarkGaleotti

There’s been some wild speculation that #Russia’s other mercenary forces could be the source of the “next mutiny” that misses the mark as to how they are unlike #Wagner. A quick explanatory thread 1/

Russia has PMCs and also mercenary forces: the former are generally reputable international businesses involved in mine-clearing, maritime security, training, VIP protection – not front-line fighting 2/

Then there are the real mercs. The larger ones that remain like Patriot, Shchit, Redut, are essentially offshoots of the MOD. 3/
meduza.io/en/feature/201…

Just as much domestic private security in Russia is in the hands of FGUP Okhrana, the National Guard’s corporate arm, so too these are not really independent. They are active in Ukraine, Syria, Libya, etc, but MOD calls the shots 4/
muse.jhu.edu/article/780975

Then there is a new wave of merc units being backed by corporate giants like Gazprom (Potok, Plamya, Fakel) and Roscosmos (Uran). They bankroll them and then hire them out to the MOD but – so far at least – these are not real merc companies 5/
buzzsprout.com/1026985/episod…

We don’t see them anywhere but Ukraine. They are really just ways for the state to force corporations to pay to raise more troops, and they seem to have recruited in the 100s not 1000s. Operational control is again in the MOD’s hands. 6/

Besides, state corporations have a stake in the status quo that a relatively loose cannon like Priogozhin, for all that Concord depends on Kremlin contract, lacked. While Prigozhin challenged the chain of command in Ukraine, they don’t 7/
inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2022/11/16/fy2…

There are some more ideological groups such as the ENOT Corps, which was Prigozhin-linked, but infused much more with ultra-nationalist ideology (like Wagner’s Rusich ‘Sabotage Assault Reconnaissance Group’) 8/

One could see these acting with more agency, but they are small and, I think, carefully watched for that very reason. 9/

Finally, there are what one could call territorial mercs, such as Convoy, established by Crimean head Sergei Aksenov, and, of course, Ramzan Kadyrov’s Chechens. They have a powerful potential or actual local role, to be sure, but limited power projection potential 10/

The Kadyrovtsy are more serious and more numerous and can be troublesome, but their territorial base is Chechnya and, frankly, I think everyone would unite against them if they tried anything independently outside the N Caucasus 11/

So while Putin still appears willing to countenance mercs after the mutiny (really, he ought to read more Machiavelli), these are rather different forces in terms of scale, subordination and role. I see no equivalents of Wagner on the horizon. 12/end