Here's a rule for when an altcoin is "done": If the market cap of that altcoin hits 10 million ETH (10% of the ether supply) or 2 million BTC (10% of the Bitcoin supply), You sell it all into ETH or BTC and then if you think the cycle is done sell into fiat. Never touch it again.
Example 1:
Chainlink $LINK. 10MΞ reached and breached in mid 2020. Down only ever since.
Example 2: NEO.
10MΞ followed by downonly
Example 3: Solana
10MΞ (actually about 17MΞ) followed by downonly
Example 3: Dash
1M₿ then downonly
Example 5: AVAX
8MΞ followed by downonly
Example 6: IOTA
just below 1M₿ then downonly forever
Example 7: $DOT
just below 1M₿ and briefly 20kΞ then downonly forever
Example 8: $TRX
Well.... you guessed it! Just below 1M₿ and briefly 20kΞ then downonly forever
Notice how a lot of coins look identical on these charts. If your coin looks like this, it's over. The devs got the coin into the top 10 and now all they have to do is keep dumping. They don't have to build anything any more, they are filthy rich.
Example 9: $LUNA
LUNA, despite being a ponzi scheme that exploded suddenly and unexpectedly, ended up getting exactly into the death zone. 1M₿ and briefly 10MΞ, then 💀
Example 10:
$XEM
Yup, same exact thing. 1M₿ and 10MΞ then downonly
Example 11: $BCH
Started a little higher than the rest due to fork. But still in the death zone 2-4M₿ then downonly
Example 12: $SHIB
10MΞ briefly violated, then a long, slow death.
Example 13: $EOS
10MΞ and 1M₿ violated, then downonly forever. ETH value was elevated for a while because ETH was underperforming BTC
Example 14: $DASH
20MΞ and just below 1M₿. Then oblivion.
Exception: $LTC
Litecoin is built a bit different. It got into the "death zone" at 1M₿ 5 times!
Example 15: $XMR Monero
Topped just shy of 1M₿. I guess at least with this, you can hide your losses due to the privacy aspect?
Example 16: $NANO
Nano was always a bit of a B-list coin. Topped just under 1M₿. Downonly ever since.
Again a B-list coin, so never made it to the real death zone. Very little time to be profitable being long on this before distribution.
Example 19: $PPC
Peercoin. This was the top old-school altcoin other than Litecoin. In that cycle there were very few A-list alts so this thing made it to just 150k₿ before death.
Example 20: $XTZ Tezos
10MΞ reached and breached, followed by a permadump on both the ETH and BTC pairs.
How do they keep scamming us with basically the same scam over and over and over again?
Well, these charts where you measure the market cap (not price!) in ETH or BTC or a combination (Not dollars!) takes away irrelevant variation due to supply changes and overall crypto moves
Once you take away these sources of variability, you can see that basically every crypto altcoin (with a very small list of exceptions) is a pump-and-slow-dump scam, with a small number of ponzi schemes like BCC and LUNA that collapse explosively.
Also people get confused by units. Cryptocoins can all have different integer max supplies - from 21 million for Bitcoin to trillions or more for various memecoins.
This unit bias effect helps to disguise the fact that pretty much all altcoins die at the exact same mcap
Two more examples:
$EGLD and $OHM
Very different projects, charts are basically identical.
tl;dr crypto altcoins are basically all P&D scams and the most popular ones all die at the same point.
Never buy into a crypto late. Buy ETH and BTC or get into quality altcoins early, before everyone is talking about them.
If you don't know which altcoins to buy, just buy ETH
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@0xaporia You see everything will make sense if we measure value in hard assets - this is the value of the dollar since 1975, measured in √(Gold × Housing)
@0xaporia GDP peaked in 2001, as measured in these √(Gold × Housing) units
@0xaporia Now compare the hard-asset-denominated GDP to the hard-asset-denominated debt and notice the key points on the chart:
This $WLD token is going to be a down only sh!tcoin for a long time because of poor tokenomics, but a lot of people on CT are being intellectually lazy about how Worldcoin works and buying into ill-informed negativity
Worldcoin aims to give people an online identity that proves that they're a real, unique human using biometrics and ZK (zero knowledge) math.
Unfortunately ZK (zero knowledge) math is counterintuitive and it breaks our naive mental model of how things work.
You might assume - and I think this is what most people are doing - is that in order to give people an online identity using biometrics, Worldcoin collects a picture of your iris, stores that picture in a centralized database, and then whenever you need to prove ...
This has probably been the worst trading quarter I have ever had in terms of lost gains (I haven't lost any money yet, but I have left life-changing amounts on the table).
It's important that we reflect on our mistakes and make sure we understand the root causes ...
... so that they never happen again.
So, let's dive in.
We had a major market bottom which I didn't ultimately buy, despite having prepared to buy the bottom for about 6 months.
In 6 months of work I built up at least some good indicators for where the bottom would likely be.
$ETH seems to have gone through an ultra-fast bounce if we compare it to the previous cycle.
During the previous crypto cycle, ETH ranged between the low and the halfway point in log terms between the low and the high for the whole bear market.
There's no guarantee that this repeats but I think it's a decent starting point to work out what happens next.
Fundamentals catalysts (ETH merge?) will perhaps skew this a bit.
Also it's possible that crypto doesn't get any more bear markets (uponly?), but here's the thing with that: markets tend to move in cycles for quite deep reasons.
Maybe legacy markets go into uponly mode again because the Fed has decided not to do much about inflation ...
When people get into trading they want to buy low and sell high. So, they ask people how low something can go, look for a concrete number to buy in at, and then ask how high it can go to for a concrete number to sell at (or short at).
If the majority of people trade based on a majority opinion of how low something can go... guess what happens in a market? The number doesn't go there!