@0xaporia You see everything will make sense if we measure value in hard assets - this is the value of the dollar since 1975, measured in √(Gold × Housing) @0xaporia GDP peaked in 2001, as measured in these √(Gold × Housing) units

This $WLD token is going to be a down only sh!tcoin for a long time because of poor tokenomics, but a lot of people on CT are being intellectually lazy about how Worldcoin works and buying into ill-informed negativity

Let me explain it in very simple terms.

🧵

https://twitter.com/worldcoin/status/1683144994209628160

Worldcoin aims to give people an online identity that proves that they're a real, unique human using biometrics and ZK (zero knowledge) math.

Unfortunately ZK (zero knowledge) math is counterintuitive and it breaks our naive mental model of how things work.

Here's a rule for when an altcoin is "done": If the market cap of that altcoin hits 10 million ETH (10% of the ether supply) or 2 million BTC (10% of the Bitcoin supply), You sell it all into ETH or BTC and then if you think the cycle is done sell into fiat. Never touch it again. Example 1:

Chainlink $LINK. 10MΞ reached and breached in mid 2020. Down only ever since.

Yes this time is different, brypto will decouple to the upside, uncorrelated pristine asset 😜

https://twitter.com/Rekt_Tekashi/status/1585388572219420673

I don't think there will be any decoupling.

Either legacy moons & takes crypto with it, or it's a local top.

This has probably been the worst trading quarter I have ever had in terms of lost gains (I haven't lost any money yet, but I have left life-changing amounts on the table).

It's important that we reflect on our mistakes and make sure we understand the root causes ... ... so that they never happen again.

So, let's dive in.

$ETH seems to have gone through an ultra-fast bounce if we compare it to the previous cycle.

During the previous crypto cycle, ETH ranged between the low and the halfway point in log terms between the low and the high for the whole bear market. There's no guarantee that this repeats but I think it's a decent starting point to work out what happens next.

Fundamentals catalysts (ETH merge?) will perhaps skew this a bit.

Why is "we might go up or we might go down" kind of a meme?

Here's my take: 🧵

https://twitter.com/IT_AIRmass/status/1557430569427951618

When people get into trading they want to buy low and sell high. So, they ask people how low something can go, look for a concrete number to buy in at, and then ask how high it can go to for a concrete number to sell at (or short at).

The market doesn't decide whether a move up is going to be another bear market rally or the recovery when it's at the bottom.

It makes that decision at the top when the move either breaks down or doesn't, and that's determined at that point in time, not in advance. CT sentiment flipped bullish over the past few days. Bears are apologizing and bulls are partying.

To be bullish now you need the trend to be on your side, because the correction is probably done (if it was a correction)

Momentum shift on volume for legacy markets dropping off a cliff.

⚠️

Why Bitcoin could go below 10k: legacy markets would need to have a major meltdown akin to 2008 or the 1930 crash

Why this is unlikely: legacy markets are more regulated than 2008 and probably won't do that.

https://twitter.com/HighSpeculating/status/1557288959251824640

What legacy markets will likely do: macro chop, because that's what happened before during periods of sticky inflation.

Inflation doesn't have the same effect on markets as a banking crisis (2008).

During inflationary periods people are desperate to BUY risk!

An alien from outer space captures you and takes you to their flying saucer and show you this chart.

"Earthling, what pattern do you see here? Answer correctly and we will let you leave without anally probing you" Let's look at event number 1 in more detail

In late 2017/early 2018, something happened. There was a squeeze on both charts, then a big release.

This rejection is not nice I still think the game is to hope for a dump and buy more though.

Especially ETH.

I knew for months there was going to be a DYDX airdrop but I never got around to using it because the gas was absolutely outrageous and you needed to lock up a lot of capital.

I should make a list of things to do when gas is cheap and set reminders ...

https://twitter.com/AnonymousID_99/status/1435637255637540864

I didn't expect the airdrop to be 40k though. But in hindsight the fact that it was difficult to get meant that it was probably worth a lot........... 🙄

OK, is it actually possible to make money on NFTs if you don't already have 10,000 ETH starting capital?

The entire point of NFTs is that they are lumpy and scarce, which means that anything cheap is unlikely to appreciate. Some things will do well but people are sweeping the floors now, so you need to catch mints.

But mints cause gas wars (paying multiple ETH for gas lol)... and it's not easy to tell what's going to do well.

TOTAL and DOMINANCE in 2018 TOTAL and DOMINANCE now

The anatomy of a mini-market cycle; July 20th - Aug 17th: Imagine that you just followed this. Let's do the numbers.

July 20th, put $10k of stables into BTC at $30k.

==> 0.33₿

The bearish case for bitcoin grows weak, we retested my bear market channel as support. I think this is game over for the bear market, and I don't think that Bitcoin will mess around much.

https://twitter.com/SamtoshiAlamedo/status/1422487794254065664

I already made some gains from Bitcoin that I accumulated in the low 30s, I'm going to swing that into quality alts that I would be happy to hold through a 6-12 month bear market.