Thread by @Nakamotolisk

Here's a rule for when an altcoin is "done": If the market cap of that altcoin hits 10 million ETH (10% of the ether supply) or 2 million BTC (10% of the Bitcoin supply), You sell it all into ETH or BTC and then if you think the cycle is done sell into fiat. Never touch it again.

Example 1:

Chainlink $LINK. 10MΞ reached and breached in mid 2020. Down only ever since.

Example 2: NEO.

10MΞ followed by downonly

Example 3: Solana

10MΞ (actually about 17MΞ) followed by downonly

Example 3: Dash

1M₿ then downonly

Example 5: AVAX

8MΞ followed by downonly

Example 6: IOTA

just below 1M₿ then downonly forever

Example 7: $DOT

just below 1M₿ and briefly 20kΞ then downonly forever

Example 8: $TRX

Well.... you guessed it! Just below 1M₿ and briefly 20kΞ then downonly forever

Notice how a lot of coins look identical on these charts. If your coin looks like this, it's over. The devs got the coin into the top 10 and now all they have to do is keep dumping. They don't have to build anything any more, they are filthy rich.

Example 9: $LUNA

LUNA, despite being a ponzi scheme that exploded suddenly and unexpectedly, ended up getting exactly into the death zone. 1M₿ and briefly 10MΞ, then 💀

Example 10:

$XEM

Yup, same exact thing. 1M₿ and 10MΞ then downonly

Example 11: $BCH

Started a little higher than the rest due to fork. But still in the death zone 2-4M₿ then downonly

Example 12: $SHIB

10MΞ briefly violated, then a long, slow death.

Example 13: $EOS

10MΞ and 1M₿ violated, then downonly forever. ETH value was elevated for a while because ETH was underperforming BTC

Example 14: $DASH

20MΞ and just below 1M₿. Then oblivion.

Exception: $LTC

Litecoin is built a bit different. It got into the "death zone" at 1M₿ 5 times!

Example 15: $XMR Monero

Topped just shy of 1M₿. I guess at least with this, you can hide your losses due to the privacy aspect?

Example 16: $NANO

Nano was always a bit of a B-list coin. Topped just under 1M₿. Downonly ever since.

Example 17: $ATOM

Launched(!) Above 10MΞ market cap, downonly ever since. Garbage.

Example 18: $ZEC

Again a B-list coin, so never made it to the real death zone. Very little time to be profitable being long on this before distribution.

Example 19: $PPC

Peercoin. This was the top old-school altcoin other than Litecoin. In that cycle there were very few A-list alts so this thing made it to just 150k₿ before death.

Example 20: $XTZ Tezos

10MΞ reached and breached, followed by a permadump on both the ETH and BTC pairs.

How do they keep scamming us with basically the same scam over and over and over again?

Well, these charts where you measure the market cap (not price!) in ETH or BTC or a combination (Not dollars!) takes away irrelevant variation due to supply changes and overall crypto moves

Once you take away these sources of variability, you can see that basically every crypto altcoin (with a very small list of exceptions) is a pump-and-slow-dump scam, with a small number of ponzi schemes like BCC and LUNA that collapse explosively.

Also people get confused by units. Cryptocoins can all have different integer max supplies - from 21 million for Bitcoin to trillions or more for various memecoins.

This unit bias effect helps to disguise the fact that pretty much all altcoins die at the exact same mcap

Two more examples:

$EGLD and $OHM

Very different projects, charts are basically identical.

tl;dr crypto altcoins are basically all P&D scams and the most popular ones all die at the same point.

Never buy into a crypto late. Buy ETH and BTC or get into quality altcoins early, before everyone is talking about them.

If you don't know which altcoins to buy, just buy ETH