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Patricia Marins

@pati_marins64

Jun 2

🧵1/11
Patriot still has the same failures as 30y ago.
This thread is specially about the American tax payer, who deserve to spend their money on something that works and a transparent company. These systems cost billions.

Well, to understand this, we must come back to 1991.

2/11
During the 1991 Gulf War, the public was led to believe the that the Patriot had near-perfect performance, intercepting 45 of 47 Scud missiles.
The truth was a system w failures and only 9% of successful interceptions.
The company blamed a software

washingtonpost.com/archive/politi…

3/11
During the Iraqi Freedom:
The command reported that the Patriot missile defense system, scored a perfect nine for nine in interceptions.

The truth was that Iraq launched ballistics and cruise missiles, but Patriots didn't intercept any.

armscontrol.org/act/2003-11/pr…

Read 15 tweets

Patricia Marins

@pati_marins64

Jun 1

1/3
Apparently the US want to test some aspects of IBCS in Ukraine.

The Pentagon sent an
Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD), Battle Command System (IBCS) and an Engagement Operations Center (EOC) for Ukraine.
If it works, would mean huge advance.

breakingdefense.com/2023/04/pentag…

2/3
The IBCS will integrate multiple sensors and weapon systems into a single network, enabling faster decision-making and more efficient engagement of targets in multi-domain battle operations.
A completely independent Fire Control system operating on a powerful radar network.

3/3
What change?
Processing speed and capacity. The integration on Gallium Nitride (GaN) radars and GaN processing networks, should give few more seconds against hypersonic missiles and better use of other systems to hit targets.
It raises the interception chances significantly.

Read 4 tweets

Patricia Marins

@pati_marins64

May 31

🧵1/9
Kinzhal and Iskander missiles, something similar, but different.

Both missiles reach hypersonic speed, it means above mach 5.
The Kinzhal is air launched, while the Iskander has ground launchers.

But there is a big difference between them: the flight altitude.

2/9
While the Kinzhal is launched at 20km altitude and keep it's flight maneuvering at that zone, the Iskander fly at 40-50km altitude. It makes the missiles completely different and in distinct levels of interceptions.
E.g the Pac-3 has 35km altitude range; Pac-2 (24km) alt.

3/9
Is true that the whole flight of a Kinzhal can be tracked by a Patriot Pac-2/Pac-3, and the system analyze it's maneuvers, creating a prediction, but the same can't be done against a Iskander, which can be seen only when the missile directly downards to the target.

Read 13 tweets

Patricia Marins

@pati_marins64

May 29

🧵1/6
NATO have no other way of not a cobtroled and progressive escalation.

During May (today 29), the Ukrainian air command announced that were intercepted around 530 threats.
The Ukr ADs works with missiles and Self-propelled cannons, but only the Gepard had an efficient radar

2/6
These ADs have some standard engagements. For example if the threat is detected at a short distance e/or a high speed, the engagement is double by standard. Some slower ADs have this rule for every target.

Can 530 interceptions means 1060 missiles? No, it's not so simple.

3/6
I will consider 10% of drones targeted by Gepard, although missiles are engaging Geran 2.

Let consider 470 targets for missile ADs.

How many were Hypersonics? It demand a high number of launching in short time, what change all.

But is coherent if we consider

470x2= 940

Read 7 tweets

Patricia Marins

@pati_marins64

May 28

🧵1/7
Saudi Arabia is investing high to have it's own defense industry.

KSA has made a lot of progress in building up its domestic arms industry, developing land weapons systems, electronics, and smart bombs.
They were the the world’s 2nd largest arms importer in 2018–22.

2/7
I did watch their development in many expos around the world. Their way is very similar to the EDGE group.

(SAMI) is the commercial entity charged with developing Def industry in the kingdom; it has an ambitious goal of producing 50 percent of defense matériel by 2030.

3/7
Actually SAMI employ near 40.000 people. But their goal to reach 50% of Def. is a bit ambitious.
The investment is around $20Bi and SAMI get the major part.
But a Def Ind demand a whole chain, Research to Production in One Country/Eng-Reverse Eng/Production from Existing Tech

Read 9 tweets

Patricia Marins

@pati_marins64

May 28

1/3
Ukr got like 60-70 Aircrafts during the last 12 months and had others 40-60 operating after Feb/22.
Even with Harm missiles it didn't change the the air status during the war and most of these were lost.
Everything flying over 200fts die in days/weeks.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

2/3
The whole territory is satured by air defenses. I'm skeptical.

Some people argue that aircrafts like the A-29 and the At-6 wolverine would be much cheaper, able to operate on dirty roads and with a faster maintenance. Maybe better choice.

US/allies have around 120 of these.

@PaullyDonuts

3/3
Useds can cost $4-6millions.

From sometime our friend @PaullyDonuts was defending this kind of Op.
Yesterday @rockfish31 did the same.

Personally I think this war is more about artilleries, but if they are going to send, it must me something able to operate on dirty roads.

Read 6 tweets

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