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Fabian Hoffmann Profile picture
@FRHoffmann1
Jul 3 • 4 tweets • 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
I did some calculations on the lethality of ATACMS (M57 variant), as well as its single-shot kill probability (SSKP) against different types of targets. The results are quite interesting. 👇 1/4

Unsurprisingly, ATACMS' lethal radius increases quite drastically against softer targets (1-4 psi), but the weapon is still effective against harder targets (5-10 psi). If the official 10m CEP is correct, ATACMS has an SSKP of 86% for 10 psi targets. 2/4
The SSKP approaches 100% for 1-4 psi targets. Interestingly, if we assume the real CEP is 8m (not 10m) - not unthinkable considering the overperformance of US-equipment in this war so far -, the SSKP is consistently above 95%, even for 10 psi targets. 3/4
Overall, ATACMS would complement Ukraine's long-range strike arsenal very well. It provides Ukraine with an excellent capability against softer and time-sensitive targets, given ATACMS' shorter delivery times compared to Storm Shadow. 4/4

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More from @FRHoffmann1

Fabian Hoffmann Profile picture
Jul 11
BREAKING: Exactly two months after the UK announced the delivery of Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine, Macron stated that 🇫🇷 would follow suit and deliver the French equivalent “SCALP-EG”. Here is a thread with everything you need to know about the implications: 👇🧵1/12
First, and most importantly, numbers: I estimate that 🇫🇷 currently has a stockpile of 440-460 SCALP-EG missiles. 🇫🇷 has procured approximately 500 missiles over the last two decades, but also used them repeatedly, most recently against 🇸🇾 chemical weapons facilities in 2018. 2/
It is unclear what part of France’s SCALP-EG stockpile is currently operational. Of Germany’s Taurus stockpile only 150 of 600 are reported operational, for example. It is likely that a larger share of France’s SCALP-EG arsenal is currently operational. 3/ thedrive.com/the-war-zone/g…
Read 12 tweets
Fabian Hoffmann Profile picture
Jul 6
Zwei kurze Gedanken zur Lieferung von Streumunition an die Ukraine.

1. Wir in Deutschland müssen uns darüber Bewusst sein, dass das Abrüsten und das Verbot verschiedener Waffen ein sicherheitspolitischer Luxus ist. 1/
Es ist bezeichnend, dass Länder wie Südkorea und Israel, die sich einer klaren sicherheitspolitischen Bedrohung gegenüber sehen, sich nie für eine Unterzeichnung des Verbotsvertrags entschieden haben. Streumunition hat einen klaren militärischen Nutzen. 2/
Das gleiche gilt übrigens auch für Atomwaffen auf deutschem Boden. Die Verschiebung der NATO-Grenze hat es uns erlaubt, über eine Abrüstung oder gar den Verbot dieser Waffen nachzudenken. Die osteuropäischen Staaten haben diesen Luxus nicht. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Fabian Hoffmann Profile picture
Jun 5
The key question is what option does NATO have left once Russia starts employing nuclear weapons against Ukrainian targets that result in large-scale civilian casualties? Leaving such escalation unanswered would constitute the death of the liberal world order. 1/5
Importantly, intervention does not necessarily mean boots on the ground. Personally, I believe we would see a large-scale cruise missile strike against key Russian military assets in Ukraine and potentially extending into Russian territory near the border. 2/5
NATO would, at this point, likely close the airspace over Ukraine and redeploy substantial IAMD capabilities to the border and potentially into Ukrainian territory. It's not necessary to deploy tanks and other ground forces. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Fabian Hoffmann Profile picture
Jun 4
Weil man jetzt wieder vermehrt liest, dass Lieferungen von Marschflugkörpern und Kampfjets (wie Panzer zuvor) uns „dem Atomkrieg einen Schritt näherbringen“. Hier ein (langer) Thread, warum eine nukleare Eskalation NICHT in Putins Interesse ist. 1/18 Image
Putin hat drei Optionen zur nuk. Eskalation. Einen Signalschlag gegen unbewohnte Ziele, einen taktischen Nuklearschlag gegen mil. Ziele & einen Signalschlag gegen bewohnte Ziele. @walberque & ich haben bereits März 2022 über diese Optionen berichtet. 2/18 washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
Ein Signalschlag gegen unbewohnte Ziele, zum Beispiel über dem Schwarzen Meer, hätte das Ziel, Russlands Bereitschaft zur nuklearen Eskalation zu demonstrieren und den Willen der Ukraine zur Landesverteidigung zu brechen. 3/18
Read 19 tweets
Fabian Hoffmann Profile picture
May 30
Sending Ukraine RGM-84/L Block II Harpoon missiles would be an easy way of enhancing Ukraine's long-range strike arsenal. Block II Harpoon missiles are equipped with GPS-guidance, providing them with limited land-attack capability. 1/4 Image
Granted, the lack of suitable terminal guidance means Harpoon missiles do not have pinpoint accuracy. As long as GPS-guidance is not jammed, however, the 10-15 m CEP should be enough to engage softer, stationary targets, such as warehouses and other buildings. 2/4
In addition, with a range of 130 km and a 224 kg semi armor-piercing warhead, it would complement well the capability profiles of HIMARS, GLSDB, and Storm Shadow. There are also hundreds if not thousands of Block II Harpoons currently in service with 🇺🇸 and its allies. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Fabian Hoffmann Profile picture
May 27
Missiles for Ukraine 🇺🇦 part two: In a previous thread I outlined which European weapon systems would, theoretically, be available to provide Ukraine with a substantial long-range strike capability. This thread discusses what non-European missile options are available. 🧵🚀 1/12 Image
Note that you can certainly make an argument that there are more. However, I think these are the most likely candidates considering a number of factors. Please also note that I provide stockpile numbers and make no claims regarding operational capability, which may be lower. 2/12
First, let’s look at the global JASSM stockpile outside of Europe. At present, I estimate that the United States deploys a JASSM arsenal of 2000-2100 AGM-158A JASSM and 1200-1300 AGM-158B JASSM-ER missiles. 3/12 Image
Read 14 tweets

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