Doctoral Research Fellow @NuclearOslo @UniOslo. Defense policy, missile technology, and nuclear strategy. Views are strictly my own.
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The article reexamines Israel's 1981 strike on Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor. While it delayed Iraq’s nuclear ambitions, the strike also pushed Iraq to pursue a more covert and determined nuclear weapons program in the years following.
I categorize 🇷🇺 nuclear threats into four types: cheap talk, state-sanctioned rhetoric, preparations for limited nuclear use, and preparations for large-scale nuclear use. Each varies in intensity & credibility.
First, @AS_22im is the true expert on tracking S-300/S-400 sites. I recommend you follow him.
The missile missile follows other SRBMs, like the Russian 9M723 Iskander-M and the South Korean Hyunmoo-2, in form and function.
Germany's Taurus KEPD-350 is arguably the best stand-off weapon in Western arsenals for destroying complex bridge targets.
The AGM-158A JASSM is, broadly speaking, the American counterpart to the German-Swedish Taurus KEPD-350 & the British-French Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG.
Militarily, medium-range missiles provide deterrence benefits by allowing NATO to more credibly hold at risk targets at operational and strategic depth, including those of time-sensitive nature.
But first recap, why 2-3 years?
For over a decade, Russia has been threatening European capitals and homeland targets with its Iskander-M ballistic and cruise missile systems, both nuclear & conventionally armed, from Kaliningrad.
Most importantly, I disagree with the notion that this debate would have been some kind of enlightened discourse on the relative benefits of deterrence, reassurance and arms control.
1. INF-range missiles in Europe will offer NATO substantial military advantages and strengthen our deterrence posture.
How exactly NATO's response would look like depends on a range of factors, most notably warhead yield, location, casualties, etc.
Most notably, the national security argument against Taurus has been advanced by the Minister of Defense.
The M48 and M57 ATACMS carry the 227kg WDU-18/B unitary warhead. This warhead includes 98 kg of DESTEX high explosives. With this data, we can determine the lethal radius (LR) for various structures based on target hardness and the required overpressure for destruction. 2/21 
First, while the missile raid was targeted and calibrated in nature, it constituted a massive assault clearly intended to overwhelm Israel's missile defense system.
At this stage of the war, state capacity is the crucial factor. We rightly commend 🇺🇦 for having found a way to undermine Russia's state capacity with indigenous long-range drones. But at the same time we are content to stand by and watch Ukraine's state capacity burn? 2/3
There is no monocausal explanation to this. But one reason is that it was, in fact, not politically easy to deploy missile defenses in Europe. This is because 🇷🇺 successfully managed to intertwine tactical-operational missile defense with strategic (nuclear) missile defense. 2/11
The West's approach to supporting Ukraine, especially that of key players like Germany and the United States, has been to supply necessary equipment while minimizing perceived risks of escalation that could arise due to weapon deliveries. 2/24
Only one Taurus variant has ever been produced and entered into service: the Taurus KEPD-350. This variant is equipped with a multi-effect warhead, featuring a primary shaped charge warhead and a secondary penetrator warhead. Other variants were conceived but never developed. 2/5 