Thread by @_CatintheHat

EXCESS DEATHS… a thread🧵

There have been 25,700 excess deaths in the UK so far this year (source: CMI).

That averages out at OVER 1,000 excess deaths a week.

Now I hope you’re sitting comfortably because I’ve been doing some digging & there’s a lot more to this story…

It frustrates me immensely to hear the pandemic constantly referred to in the past tense.

When the ONS Infection Survey was axed back in March, infection rates were HIGHER than at the peak of Jan 2021…& on the rise again.

High infection rates have just become the new norm.

.@AdeleGroyer has done some additional analysis on the excess deaths reported by the CMI which shows that, since February this year (after the big flu spike in January), pretty much ALL of the excess mortality so far this year (in England & Wales) can be explained by Covid.

👇🏻 https://t.co/bp7rPweh0q

https://twitter.com/AdeleGroyer/status/1666133393011089409

The trend is also very clear from this OHID chart of England’s excess mortality since the start of the pandemic.👇🏻

📍total deaths: 1,778,647 (10% higher than expected)

📍excess deaths: 159,910

📍deaths with Covid mentioned on the death certificate (🟡 on the chart): 192,833

And before the anti-vaxxers show up to try and blame the excess deaths on the jab, @jneill has been keeping a very close eye on the data…

There is still *no* correlation between vaccinations & excess deaths.

But there *is* clear correlation between Covid & excess deaths.

👇🏻 https://t.co/B4rt5LcCVY

https://twitter.com/jneill/status/1673429654428958720

Frustratingly, from now on, I fear the deaths data may become far more muddy in terms of the delineation between Covid & non-Covid deaths since all routine Covid testing in hospitals & care homes ended back in April 2023, even for patients/residents with obvious Covid symptoms. https://t.co/EZEoZnCP9c

https://twitter.com/_CatintheHat/status/1642476275607515137

Of course, my hope is that doctors will continue to conduct Covid tests to inform clinical decisions…

However, since April, the amount of NHS Covid testing has plummeted, so I think it’s reasonable to assume that at least some Covid deaths will be missed going forward. https://t.co/I7V5hA4bgb

https://twitter.com/PrognosticChats/status/1673852450153824260

A recent study found that people who caught Covid were 5 TIMES more likely to die from heart disease in the 18 months after infection.

There have now been nearly 100,000 more deaths than usual attributed to heart problems since the pandemic began.

https://t.co/jW6jROYa2o https://t.co/BywxraEvKnbhf.org.uk/what-we-do/new…

https://twitter.com/Sandyboots2020/status/1673266839135084545

As this BBC article acknowledges, it’s very likely that at least some of the deaths which were (or will be) hastened by the after-effects of a Covid infection will *not* end up being linked to the virus when the death is registered.

https://t.co/CryJiwC0jvbbc.co.uk/news/health-64…

It’s not just the heart though…

Covid can also damage your lungs, heart, brain, kidneys & basically every other organ of your body.

Even if it doesn’t kill you, it can leave you with serious long-term health problems.

You just might not know it yet.

https://t.co/xAlDSqSkn0nature.com/articles/s4157…

And the risk of severe health outcomes increases with each successive reinfection.

Just because you’ve had Covid before and were fine, it doesn’t mean you’ll be fine next time.

You roll the dice every single time you get infected…

https://t.co/nopexy2wonnature.com/articles/s4159

According to the CDC, around 1 in 5 adults now have a health condition that may be related to their previous Covid infection.

That’s 20% of us!

And with each new infection, that % will just keep rising and rising…

To those paying attention to the science and latest research, it’s clear we’re heading towards a tidal wave of chronic illness.

In fact, we’re seeing it already…

The number of adults in the U.K. who are off work due to long-term sickness just hit 2.55 million, a record high. https://t.co/XOw1KVV9kJ

https://twitter.com/resfoundation/status/1668551788255952896

Back in February, the CDC added an update to its guidance for certifying ‘Deaths due to Covid’, making it clear that clinicians should bear in mind that Covid “can have lasting effects on nearly every organ of the body for weeks, months & potentially years after infection.”

👇🏻

This phenomenon of delayed deaths from post-infection sequelae is not new.

We also saw it following the 1918 flu pandemic, as this Australian data shows.

Just as deaths from most other causes plummeted due to medical advances, deaths from heart disease exploded after 1918.

👇🏻 https://t.co/vzNmyg0dPT

https://twitter.com/RageSheen/status/1649523761140604928

I also want to talk about the methodologies for calculating excess deaths.

The UK data I’ve used so far in this thread is from CMI & OHID who both use pre-pandemic death rates as their baseline.

On the other hand, ONS now include 2021 & 2022 in their 5-year average baseline.

The Office for Statistics Regulation recently reviewed ONS’s methodology and recommended that ONS should “review its methods & approach to ensure its statistics are fit for purpose”.

The methodologies used by ONS, OHID & CMI are outlined below:

👇🏻

https://t.co/Z4jwvl4FZ7osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/publication/os…

By baking these high pandemic-year death figures into the baseline, the concern is that ONS is magically decreasing the excess mortality calculation… 🪄

…so now the high rates of excess deaths just become the new norm.

The thread below from @RPLerias
explains more.

👇🏻

https://twitter.com/RPLerias/status/1657064263578427392

Please don’t stop reading here… there’s still more to the story.

Click “Show replies” to see rest of the thread.

⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️

Instead of using excess deaths during 2021/22 to set a new baseline of *higher* expected deaths, maybe it would be more appropriate to use the number of ‘deaths brought forward’ to *reduce* the baseline?

According to experts, this would be tricky, but it’s food for thought…🤔 https://t.co/KV051aujSM

https://twitter.com/_CatintheHat/status/1667843841678880770

It’s worth noting that, even *with* 2021 & 2022 baked into ONS’s 5-year average baseline, they’re still reporting an 8% increase in excess deaths so far this year.

Excess deaths were 10.4% above the 5-year average in the latest week (w/e 16 June) - that’s 1,008 more deaths. https://t.co/D0CXmVSMrN

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1673610074453946370

We know that discussions took place early on in the pandemic about what the government considered to be an “acceptable” level of excess death.

Apparently they settled on a figure of 1,000 weekly deaths.

Clearly this level is still deemed “acceptable”.

https://t.co/a8etEM6Igrinews.co.uk/news/boris-joh…

This situation with continuing high levels of excess deaths is not unique to the UK.

Around the world, we are now seeing sharp drops in life expectancy.

👇🏻

The Economist has recently published the results of their model for estimating global Covid deaths using excess death figures.

The official number of Covid deaths globally is 6.9m, but their model suggests the true toll is 23.9 MILLION, 3.4 times higher.

https://t.co/esm99cJl9ueconomist.com/graphic-detail…

This chart showing excess mortality rates around the world is fascinating!

Countries are sorted by the total excess mortality as % of the baseline.

Interestingly, excess deaths are typically highest in countries that either did not vaccinate or vaccinated late. https://t.co/OVJKbLhl5K

https://twitter.com/AdeleGroyer/status/1652431005133811718

@NM_Wilkinson The chart below is from OHID 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿whereas the one you commented on above is CMI 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿+🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿, but here you can clearly see how the excess mortality fluctuates between positive (more deaths than expected) & negative (fewer deaths than expected).

@Rainbow_L_S

https://twitter.com/actuarybyday/status/1674295608654397440

@Glen_Berry @SureReality @tlss2026 I suspect many of these delayed deaths will not be recorded as linked to their prior Covid infection though.

https://twitter.com/_CatintheHat/status/1675921054068252677

@AdeleGroyer @john_actuary All we *do* know is that we are still seeing a large amount of excess deaths.

Up to now, pretty much 100% of the excess could be attributed to Covid.

But then, just as Covid testing in hospitals stopped, the non-Covid excess suddenly spiked.

And no one knows why.

Spooky.

@john_actuary @AdeleGroyer …and this one too 👇🏻

https://twitter.com/1goodtern/status/1611471902559866881

@AdeleGroyer @dr_hurford @Saffiya_Khan1 @TheBHF …At least some cardio deaths will be caused or at least hastened by recent Covid infection, but without the test, they will not be recorded on the death certificate as such.

Which is EXACTLY the point I made in my thread. 👇🏻

https://twitter.com/_CatintheHat/status/1675921054068252677

@AdeleGroyer @dr_hurford @Saffiya_Khan1 @TheBHF By your own calculations above, without routine Covid testing, 1 out of 10 cardio deaths caused by Covid will be missed…

https://twitter.com/AdeleGroyer/status/1676330780216139776

@AdeleGroyer @dr_hurford @Saffiya_Khan1 @TheBHF …and I haven’t even got started on all the other post-infection sequelae that may be missed without a recent Covid test result.

@AdeleGroyer @dr_hurford @Saffiya_Khan1 @TheBHF Look, I’m really not here to have an argument with you, Adele.

I fully respect your professional opinion on this, but I’m just respectfully trying to offer an alternative viewpoint.

I think it’s important to keep an open mind & question things that don’t appear to add up.

@bekind02101430 …and also McKinsey did some fascinating analysis which showed that the US workforce lost around 1 BILLION workdays in 2022 due to the various impacts of Covid.

“A burden on productivity that could last for years”.

https://t.co/IoCMZClx33mckinsey.com/industries/hea…

@AdeleGroyer @mm_tw9 @dr_hurford @Saffiya_Khan1 @TheBHF Anyway, this is becoming a rather circular argument, Adele.

I would just encourage you to keep an open mind with this.

When circumstances change (like testing in hospitals being stopped) and we suddenly see a rapid decrease in Covid numbers, this *may* be a contributing factor.

@MarvinH2_G2 @mjb302 @0bj3ctivity @adsquires @AdeleGroyer @microlabdoc @Saffiya_Khan1 @RevivalCare @mm_tw9 @dr_hurford @TheBHF Also this is relevant too 👇🏻

“In the NHS, we are asked not to screen and only test after pyrexia (fever).”

https://twitter.com/mjb302/status/1667575992485855233

@adsquires @0bj3ctivity @mjb302 @MarvinH2_G2 @RevivalCare @AdeleGroyer @microlabdoc @Saffiya_Khan1 @mm_tw9 @dr_hurford @TheBHF We know that hospital-acquired (nosocomial) Covid increases in-hospital mortality by at least 30%.

These people were already in hospital for other reasons, so my point is that, now routine Covid testing has ended, their death may not be certified as “with Covid involved”.

https://twitter.com/_CatintheHat/status/1642595078605615106

@adsquires @mjb302 @GhostOfSocrates @0bj3ctivity @MarvinH2_G2 @RevivalCare @AdeleGroyer @microlabdoc @Saffiya_Khan1 @mm_tw9 @dr_hurford @TheBHF I think any perceived “rudeness” from those participating in this debate was simply borne out of frustration.

Many of us are incredibly frustrated at the total lack of reliable Covid data.

@adsquires @mjb302 @GhostOfSocrates @0bj3ctivity @MarvinH2_G2 @RevivalCare @AdeleGroyer @microlabdoc @Saffiya_Khan1 @mm_tw9 @dr_hurford @TheBHF For some time, we had predicted that official Covid hospitalisations and deaths would fall as soon as testing in hospitals ended.

We had suggested that excess deaths might be the only way to reliably track it going forward (as the Economist model mentioned in my thread does)…

@adsquires @mjb302 @GhostOfSocrates @0bj3ctivity @MarvinH2_G2 @RevivalCare @AdeleGroyer @microlabdoc @Saffiya_Khan1 @mm_tw9 @dr_hurford @TheBHF Everything we predicted has now come to pass, so it’s just frustrating that the professional actuaries seem so unwilling to even consider the possibility that it might be a contributing factor.

I’m not a doctor or an actuary. But I do know about data.

@adsquires @mjb302 @GhostOfSocrates @0bj3ctivity @MarvinH2_G2 @RevivalCare @AdeleGroyer @microlabdoc @Saffiya_Khan1 @mm_tw9 @dr_hurford @TheBHF FYI, this is the Economist model I mentioned above, which uses excess deaths for each country to measure the true toll of Covid 👇🏻

https://twitter.com/_CatintheHat/status/1675926966799573016