PUPIL & TEACHER ABSENCE 🧵

Dear @bphillipsonMP & @StephenMorganMP,

Here are some charts you might find useful when determining your strategy for schools, particularly if you’re looking to prioritise addressing the pupil attendance crisis & exorbitant spend on supply teachers… PUPIL ABSENCE

In 2023/24:

▪️49% of all pupil absences have been due to ILLNESS.

▪️Pupil illness absence accounted for 3.5% of all possible sessions in England.

▪️Pupil illness absence was 40% higher than pre-pandemic.

COVID in SCOTLAND… in JULY 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

I’ve been taking a closer look at the data for Covid in Scotland.

On every measure (wastewater, test positivity, hospitalisations, deaths), the summer wave of Covid is proving to be WORSE than the winter wave.

Covid is NOT just a winter virus. At the peak of the winter wave, ONS estimated that 4.3% of people across England & Scotland were infected.

That equates to 1 in every 23 people infected.

It’s extremely likely that prevalence is even higher than that right now, given what we are seeing in the data.

There’s not much timely Covid data available these days…

…but the little data we do have (from England PCR positivity & Scottish wastewater) is all telling a similar story…

…that we’re currently in a large wave with case levels at similar levels as the Dec23/Jan24 peak.

🧵 It’s also worth noting that, at the highest point of the Dec23/Jan24 wave, the ONS Infection Survey estimated that around 4.5% of the population of England & Scotland were infected…

…that corresponds to 1 in every 22 people infected.

gov.uk/government/sta…

AIR FILTERS FOR SCHOOLS

Another local council (Hertforshire) is installing air filters in schools.

This is, of course, great news but it’s immensely frustrating to see this drip-feed approach.

Our children’s right to breathe clean indoor air should NOT be a postcode lottery.

https://twitter.com/hertscc/status/1803790590808633757

More details in the links below ⬇️

Hertfordshire:

London: hertfordshire.gov.uk/about-the-coun…
london.gov.uk/media-centre/m…

SUPPLY TEACHER COSTS, a thread 🧵

Spend per pupil on supply teachers has been going UP & UP!

In 2022/23:

▪️Schools spent an average of £196 PER PUPIL on supply teachers. That’s a 22% increase compared to pre-pandemic.

▪️In total, £698 MILLION was spent on supply teachers.

https://twitter.com/_CatintheHat/status/1795395186668748885

Detailed data for teacher absences in 2022/23 hasn’t been published yet, but, in 2021/22, more than 3.2 MILLION working days were missed by teachers DUE TO ILLNESS, compared with 2 million working days missed in 2018/19.

That’s a 56% increase!

schoolsweek.co.uk/teacher-sickne…

This is Shadow Education Secretary @bphillipsonMP talking about the importance of VENTILATION in schools & how the Government’s approach is “incompetent, complacent & inadequate.”

What I’d like to know is:

What will SHE do differently if LABOUR win the election?

/1

https://twitter.com/bphillipsonMP/status/1478999168651862017

This is an EPIC thread, written by Shadow Education Secretary @bphillipsonMP on the importance of VENTILATION in schools.

She compiles all the evidence & berates the Tory Government for their despicable inaction.

But what will SHE do differently if LABOUR win the election?

/2

https://twitter.com/bphillipsonMP/status/1478271891307646976

WHOOPING COUGH CONTAGIOUS PERIOD,🧵

Here’s a weird thing…

All the guidance I can find from other countries warns that whooping cough is MOST contagious from the onset of the mild, cold-like symptoms.

For example, here’s the advice from the US:

🇺🇸: cdc.gov/pertussis/sign…
Here’s the advice from Canada:

“Infectiousness is greatest during the catarrhal stage and during the first 2 weeks after cough onset.”

(The catarrhal stage is the initial cold-like symptoms - eg. runny nose, mild cough).

🇨🇦: canada.ca/en/public-heal…

In America 🇺🇸, the North Carolina Senate has voted in favour of a total ban on wearing masks in public… even those who are doing so for health reasons.

What sort of dystopian world are we living in where they won’t ban guns but they will ban cancer patients from wearing a mask? Crucially, the latest draft of the bill REMOVES the clause exempting people for wearing a mask due to medical reasons.

(The bill has been approved by the NC Senate, but still needs to win approval by the state House before being sent to the governor for final sign-off or veto).

https://twitter.com/quickfornc/status/1790876644745400795

WHOOPING COUGH & MEASLES:

Two diseases which are:

▪️highly contagious (whooping cough is contagious for up to 3 weeks)

▪️spread through the air (airborne)

▪️start out with mild cold-like symptoms

▪️currently circulating at extremely high levels

(A bit like Covid, really…) Here is the NHS list of symptoms for Covid, Measles & Whopping Cough ⬇️

All 3 diseases start out with mild cold-like symptoms…

…all are highly contagious in this early stage…

Prof Adam Finn on Radio 4’s Today programme (@BBCr4today):

“We’re in a very different place with almost everyone in the population immune to SARS-CoV-2...”

This statement is incredibly poor public health messaging. Here’s a quick thread of reasons why…

🧵 If we’re all so ‘immune’, why is it that, as recently as mid-December 2023, 1 in every 24 people across the whole of England were infected with Covid?

If we’re all so ‘immune’, surely such high waves of Covid shouldn’t be happening repeatedly?

gov.uk/government/sta…

ONS LONG COVID DATA:

I’m still working through the raw data released yesterday by ONS revealing the prevalence of Long Covid in England & Scotland.

Some interesting (& concerning) data points are emerging so I wanted to do a quick thread on what it reveals for CHILDREN…

🧵

https://twitter.com/ons/status/1783418864954417185

▪️111,816 children (aged 3-17 yrs) were estimated to be suffering from Long Covid during the 4 week period ending 7 Mar 2024 (England & Scotland).

▪️Over 20,000 of these kids with Long Covid reported that their ability to undertake day-to-day activities had been limited A LOT.

WHOOPING COUGH

Data for February has now been released & it’s not good.

The total number of confirmed cases in England has risen sharply from 555 at the end of January to 1,468 as of the end of February.

At the same time last year, there had been just 18 confirmed cases! So where are all these cases?

Metro newspaper has compiled a handy map of the confirmed cases ⬇️

Cases are highest in Wales, the South West and North East, but all regions are affected to some extent.

metro.co.uk/2024/04/19/map…

COVID’S EFFECT ON THE IMMUNE SYSTEM

🔥 This is an excellent series of graphics from @YaleSPH explaining what we do (and don’t) know about Covid’s effect on the immune system.

Much of this is informed by the work of Dr. Akiko Iwasaki (@VirusesImmunity).

🧵

H/t @fitterhappierAJ This fantastic series of graphics have come from a Facebook post by Yale School of Public Health at the link below:

facebook.com/10006428075591…

2024 Q1 MORTALITY DATA

Do you want the good news or the bad news?

Ok, let’s start with the GOOD news first:

▪️Overall YTD mortality figures across the whole population remain among the lowest seen.

…but now for the BAD news…

/1

https://twitter.com/actuarybyday/status/1780614173262852149

Mortality figures across the whole population are heavily skewed by the older age groups since older people are more likely to die.

Sadly, this is hiding high % increases in the younger age groups, specifically in children aged 0-14 years.

The kids are not ok. 😢

/2

Heads up, folks…

It looks like the World Health Organisation are about to come up with alternative terminology for ‘airborne transmission’ in an attempt to save face after denying that Covid was airborne for so long.

I’ve compiled some relevant threads below…

⬇️

https://twitter.com/blakemmurdoch/status/1780273875613557210

⬇️

https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1780202187030761781

PERSISTENT ABSENCE

I’ve been scratching my head trying to figure out where this magical 440,000 figure came from which the DfE are quoting as the reduction in persistent absence…

…because that’s NOT what the official data shows!!

Read on to find out more…

🧵⬇️

https://twitter.com/gilliankeegan/status/1779820660073570728

According to the latest DfE report, the number of persistently absent pupils decreased from:

▪️22.5% in 2021/22
= 1.64 million pupils

to

▪️21.2% in 2022/23
= 1.57 million pupils

That’s a reduction of just 70,000 pupils, NOT 440,000!

…e-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistic…

There’s nothing more irritating than when you see someone who is so close to joining the dots… but doesn’t quite get there.

I’m never quite sure if it’s intentional or just sheer ignorance… (well actually, I think I can probably guess which it is).

/1

telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/2…
Let’s take a look at what she says:

“We must better support our children to attend school safely in any future similar event.”

“We cannot allow our elderly, those in care homes & the vulnerable to be placed at such risk in a future pandemic.”

“Most viruses are airborne.”

/2

🚨 Indoor AIRBORNE Risk Assessment in the context of SARS-CoV-2 from the World Health Organisation (@WHO)

For clean air advocates, this is HUGE!

The WHO are finally saying, loud & proud: COVID IS AIRBORNE.

Let’s take a closer look at the details…🧵

🔗 iris.who.int/handle/10665/3…
Foreword:

“We live immersed in an ocean of air, yet we hardly ever notice its presence. However, without air we would simply not be able to survive.”

“We must reshape & redesign the building environment, while focusing on optimizing indoor ventilation and the air we breathe.”

🚨NEW Report presents findings from a review of Long Covid to guide New Zealand’s Public Health response.

Report concludes that “preventative action is urgently needed”.

Let’s dive into the details as the findings are relevant for ALL countries.

🔗

/1 phcc.org.nz/briefing/long-…
Below are some of the key findings of the report:

▪️Changes in health status following SARS-CoV-2 infection are common and can occur at any age.

▪️Symptoms are frequently experienced for months or years and can increase over time.

/2

Let’s talk about WHOOPING COUGH…

…because there’s a lot of it about at the moment.

▪️In the whole of 2023, there were 858 cases in England.

▪️In Jan 2024, there were 553 cases!

(And that’s just confirmed cases; true numbers are probably far higher).

gov.uk/government/new…
Whooping cough (pertussis) is a lingering bacterial infection of the lungs and the mucus layers lining it.

It makes sufferers gasp for breath, have difficulty breathing and battle thick mucus.

Symptoms can last for several months, meaning it is often dubbed the '100-day cough'.

MEASLES, a thread🧵

Having successfully eliminated measles in the UK back in 2017, it’s now back with a vengeance.

Cases have risen to a 10-year high & a National Health Emergency has been declared.

Here’s a whistlestop tour of everything you need to know about measles. MEASLES CASES IN ENGLAND

▪️In the 5 months since 1 Oct 2023, 733 measles cases have been reported, a 10-year high.

▪️239 new cases have been reported in Feb so far (data still incomplete).

▪️The majority (63%) of cases are in children under 10 yrs.

🔗 gov.uk/government/pub…